1. Hans Verkerk, Vladimir Korotkov, Jeannette Meyer, Sergey Zudin, Sergey Lebedev, Marcus Lindner Impact of wood demand and forest management on forest development and carbon stocks in Kostroma region, Russia

2. Introduction Forests important for controlling CO 2 concentration Russian forests important 21% of global forest area large carbon pool carbon sink but: managed unsatisfactorily subject to huge changes

3. Introduction Aim: to explore the effects of different wood demands and forest management strategies on forest development and carbon stocks to contribute to the development of sustainable forest management strategies in Russia

4. Introduction Research questions Demand: Is the rapid increase in demand sustainable? Is it possible to fulfill the demand? Management: What impact does forest management have on the structure of the forest and on carbon stocks?

5. Methods Study area: Chukhlomskoy FMU Forested area 226620 ha Species: Scots pine (14%) Norway spruce (32%) Birch (39%) European aspen (14%) Other (1%)

6. Methods Application of EFISCEN Forest inventory of 1996 24 forest types distinguished Data Volume and increment from forest inventories Established BEFs Marklund equations + EFIMOD coefficients Russian yield tables Simulation period: 40 years

7. Scenarios Input data The EFISCEN model framework

8. The area matrix approach of EFISCEN Forest types are specified by: Region Owner Site class Tree species

9. The Yasso Soil Model

10. INVENTORY DATA: STEMWOOD VOLUME, m 3 (from EEFR database) DRY WOOD BIOMASS, Mg CARBON IN STEM BIOMASS, Mg CARBON IN WHOLE TREE BIOMASS, Mg CARBON TO LITTER, Mg/yr -1 Dry wood density, Mg/m 3 Carbon content, % Biomass turnover by age classes, tree species, region Biomass expansion factors by age classes, tree species, region The Carbon Calculation

11. Methods Scenarios 2 species scenarios no change in species increase of coniferous species 5 demand scenarios constant demand increasing demand 3 management scenarios changing share of thinnings in removals changing rotation length

12. Results Forest structure in 1995

13. Results of demand scenarios Forest structure MSD scenario Average age: 44 years CP scenario Average age: 68 years

14. Results demand scenarios Forest growth Average growing stock Average carbon stocks

15. Results demand scenarios Removals MSD CP

16. Results management scenarios Forest structure

17. Results management scenarios Forest growth and average carbon stock IncrementCarbon

18. Results management scenarios Removals Total demand could be fulfilled under every scenario Increase share of thinnings in MSD scenario: 24,400 m 3 /year in HIT scenario: 138,000 m 3 /year in LR scenario 194,200-195,800 m 3 /year No change in share of thinnings SR scenario

19. Discussion Mortality: Low volume of removals + absence of natural mortality in EFISCENAccumulation of area in oldest age-class

20. Discussion Forest growth and carbon stocks Initial average growing stock: 154 m 3 /ha Initial average carbon stock: 50.4 ton/ha Estimates are in accordance with literature Increase in average growing/carbon stock Rate MSD scenario in accordance with literature

21. Discussion Increasing wood demand Demand could be sustained demand still lower than maximum volume of removal (MSD) High share of wood from deciduous species Industrial use of this wood still limited

22. Discussion Forest management HIT scenario: huge increase in thinnings possible Set aside forests for nature conservation Silvicultural advantages LR: biggest increase in average growing/carbon stock SR: rather small effect on average growing/carbon stock

23. Conclusions Expected increase in removals is sustainable More equal distribution of area over age-classes Expected increase does not exceed maximum sustainable cut (MSD scenario) Expected demand could be fulfilled High share of deciduous species Beneficial to: Increase share of thinnings Prolong rotation length