1. MURE Database and Simulation Tool for Energy Efficiency Measures EU and eceee expert seminar on measurement and verification in the European Commission’s Proposal for a Directive on Energy Efficiency and Energy Services Brussels 21/09/2004 Wolfgang Eichhammer, Fraunhofer ISI

2. MURE : a brief reminder A comprehensive database of RUE measures, for each EU member state, for the EU, and for all end-use sectors (Household, Transport, Industry and Tertiary) A simulation tool, allowing to build and run RUE scenarios to calculate potential costs and impacts associated to RUE policies and measures www.mure2.com

3. Path of Analysis 2004 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3

4. Case 2 : Several measures on one target, follow-up indicator for package of measures Measure Target Impact M1 M2 M3 T1 I1 Example : M 1 :minimum efficiency standards for boilers M 2 :thermal insulation standard (for building shell) M 3 :subsidies for condensing boilers T 1 : new houses I 1 : emissions or specific consumption per dwelling or m 2 Example : M 1 :minimum efficiency standards for boilers M 2 :thermal insulation standard (for building shell) M 3 :subsidies for condensing boilers T 1 : new houses I 1 : emissions or specific consumption per dwelling or m 2

5. P&Ms maps in the residential sector Heating before EEAP (1990-1999) / after EEAP (2000-2004) Captive electricity White Goods before EEAP (1990- 1999) / after EEAP (2000-2004) Captive electricity Brown Goods before EEAP (1990- 1999) / after EEAP (2000-2004) Distributed renewables before EEAP (1990-1999) / after EEAP (2000-2004) 6 files per country Quality of evaluation (1…3)

8. Level 1: Evaluation measure impact 1990- 2000 with Odyssee Impact Indicators (PJ) (EU-level)

9. Evaluation measure impact 1990-2000 with Odyssee Impact Indicators (Mt CO2) (EU-level)

10. Level 2: Evaluation measure impact EU 1990-1999 with impacts specified in MURE descriptions + semi-quantitative estimates (by instrument) (% of energy/CO 2 savings)

11. Objective of MURE simulations (Level 3) To this end we define: The reference year, as the year from which starts the impact simulation exercise The reference scenario, as the energy demand trend taking into account the main energy consumption drivers (i.e. the households growth rate) and the (residual) impact of the energy saving measures issued before the reference year The policy scenario, as the energy demand development taking into account additional energy saving measures issued (or even planned) after the reference year. To allow the User to simulate, starting from a given year, the impact of a given energy Policy Scenario with respect to a Reference Scenario.

12. The Impact Evaluation of P&Ms The impact evaluation can be carried out on both Backcasting (1990-2000) and Forecasting (2000 – 2025) exercises

13. Impact simulation methodology General data set up Measures analysis and parametrisation Run and discussion of results Possible further measures parametrisation and data calibration

14. Impact simulation methodology: Measures analysis and parametrisation Grouping the measures by homogeneous category (financial, fiscal, ordinances, informative, etc.) Sorting the measures by issuing date Setting of the simulation criteria (measures parameterisation): Selection of the type of intervention to be simulated (insulation, boiler substitution, …) Simulation of the measure relative gain (% saving) Definition of the measures penetration rate (i.e. the rate of penetration in the involved dwelling stock)

15. MURE HOUSEHOLD CASE STUDIES: Back-casting Scenario Germany

16. MURE HOUSEHOLD CASE STUDIES: Forecasting Scenario Germany

17. Advantages/disadvantages of the three evaluation paths Evaluation with Odyssee impact indicators (Level 1): comprise still social factors/trends (i.e. yield often net effect between factors increasing energy consumption and policy measures) but have a full coverage of targets to be monitored. Link between indicator and measure impact sometimes weak depending on data availability Bottom-up evaluation from MURE measure description + semi-quantitative estimates (Level 2): In general based on in-depth evaluation of measure hence more careful evaluation measure impact. Yields larger savings as social factors/trends are not often taken into account in the evaluations ("gross impact of measure"). Incomplete coverage although some of the gaps can be closed with fairly easy estimates of the impact derived from the measure descriptions. Overlaps between measures are not fully eliminated (in-depth work of ECN on measure overlap). Information based in general on national evaluations, hence on not fully comparable assumptions. Systematic evaluation of measures with the MURE simulation tool (Level 3):provides evaluation of most types of measures based on a careful simulation of measure impacts. Homogeneous treatment of measures accross countries. Data requirements quite high (depending on the required precision)