1. World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) Peter Lemke (on behalf of EC-PORS) WMO EC-PORS http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/Antarctica/antarctic.html

2. Background 1.EC-PORS: Executive Council Panel of Experts on Polar Observations, Research and Services established in 2008 to assist the WMO Executive Council in its oversight of WMO Polar activities 2.GIPPS: Global Integrated Polar Prediction System Global: international effort, and poles affect systems (weather, climate, biological chemical etc.) globally Integrated: reflects interconnections between the systems and the System itself will be integrated (research, observations and services)

3. Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) Values 1.Improved services: transportation, logistics and planning, biological and energy resources management, water resources, tourism, marine and aviation activities, disaster risk reduction 2.Improved understanding of key physical processes that drive the polar weather and climate system 3.Providing input to global models to ensure improved representation of polar processes

4. Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) Time-scales 1.Short-term prediction (hours to seasons) 2.Medium-term predictability (years to decades) 3.Long-term projection of ice mass balance and sea level (centuries) For all time-scales (except a few hours) the full coupled system (atm/land/ice/ocean) has to be addressed.

5. Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) Focus on predicting 1.Typical synoptic variables 2.Sea ice concentration, thickness, motion, internal forces 3.Seasonally frozen ground, active layer 4.Snow cover 5.Ice sheet mass balance, dynamics 6.etc.

6. Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) Key Gaps 1.Understanding key processes and interactions in Polar Regions: stable boundary layers, polar clouds and precipitation, sea ice/ocean dynamics, hydrology, permafrost, ice sheet dynamics 2.Sustaining in-situ and satellite observations in Polar Regions, including reference observations 3.Products and services for Polar Regions

7. Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) Next steps 1.Embark on a decadal endeavour towards a Global Integrated Polar Prediction System as an IPY Legacy (Approval by Cg-XVI in May/June 2011!) 2.Requirements: optimized observing systems improved model components improved assimilation techniques

8. Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) GIPPS will need to be an end-to- end operational prediction system Partners (Science and Operations) 1.WWRP/THORPEX, WCRP (CliC, SPARC,...),... 2.Alfred Wegener Institute, British Antarctic Survey, Byrd Polar Institute, Bjerknes Centre,... 3.ECMWF, NCEP, various national NWP centres

9. Thanks for your attention