1. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 1 Risk-Based Management of Hurricane Preparedness and Recovery for a Highway Agency VDOT Stakeholders Workshop Presented by the Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems Chesapeake, Virginia February 28, 2000

2. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 2 VDOT Steering Committee Virginia Department of Transportation Travis Bridewell Mac Clarke Perry Cogburn Jon DuFresne Stephany Hanshaw Steve Mondul Murali Rao Bob Rasmussen J.R. Robinson Gerald Venable Virginia Transportation Research Council Wayne Ferguson

3. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 3 Workshop Invitees Department of Emergency Services Department of State Police Department of Environmental Quality Department of Health Department of Aviation Department of Rail and Public Transportation Virginia Port Authority Department of Military Affairs Department of Fire Programs Virginia National Guard Virginia Association of Volunteer Rescue Squads Virginia Power Company Association of Independent Electric Power Cooperatives Virginia Fire Chiefs Association Virginia Association of Chiefs of Police Virginia Emergency Management Association Natural Gas Providers Oil Pipeline Operators Military Traffic Management Command, Ft. Eusice Telephone companies Tidewater area local law enforcement Tidewater are hospital representatives Red Cross

4. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 4 Project Team Graduate Students Richard D. Moutoux Claudia P. Handal Undergraduate Students Jason W. Eshler Ryan M. Finseth Clare E. Patterson Faculty James H. Lambert, Research Assistant Professor of Systems Engineering Yacov Y. Haimes, Quarles Professor of Systems and Civil Engineering Garrick E. Louis, Assistant Professor of Systems Engineering Project web site: http://www.virginia.edu/~risk/recovery/

5. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 5 Overview of Presentation Introduction Overview of engineering risk management Background and prior efforts Overview of project Prioritization of recovery Integration with the GIS Agency-wide HHM

6. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 6 Motivation Restore mobility as quickly as possible Save lives and cost Justify aid from FEMA and FHWA Potential for $30-60 billion in losses for a category IV hitting Tidewater, Richmond, or Northern Virginia (Source: Post Hurricane Recovery Workshop, Insurance Institute, 1997)

7. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 7 Hurricane Floyd Hurricane Floyd hit Suffolk District in mid- September, causing significant flood damage Roads did not receive much wind damage, but flooding closed many roads Virginia did not take a direct hit from the winds, but was close

8. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 8 Hurricane Floyd Damage

9. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 9 Overview of the Risk Assessment and Management Process

10. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 10 Technological Age Risk Management  Optimal Balance Technology Management: Man/Machine/Software Systems Planning Design Operation Risk Management Uncertain Benefits Uncertain Costs

11. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 11 Risk assessment and management must be an integral part of the decisionmaking process

12. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 12 Risk A Measure of the Probability and Severity of Adverse Effects

13. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 13 Risk vs. Safety Measuring risk is an empirical, quantitative, scientific activity (e.g., measuring the probability and severity of harm). Judging safety is judging the acceptability of risks -- a normative, qualitative, political activity. (After William W. Lowrance, 1976)

14. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 14 Risk Assessment and Management What can go wrong? What is the likelihood that it will go wrong? What are the consequences? What can be done? What options are available and what are their associated trade-offs in terms of all costs, benefits, and risks? What are the impacts of current management decisions on future options?

15. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 15 Background and Prior Efforts

16. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 16 Suffolk District One of nine VDOT districts in the state Includes the Hampton Roads area, the Eastern Shore, Williamsburg, and west almost to I-95

17. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 17 Saffir-Simpson Scale

18. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 18 Hurricane History

19. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 19 Retrofitting Alternatives Studied effects of retrofitting signs, lights, and signals to withstand higher winds Trade-off analysis compared cost of retrofitting with potential risk of destruction Four levels of retrofitting (none, 10, 20, and 40 mph) were considered for each of the five hurricane categories

20. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 20 Upgrading Trade-off Analysis

21. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 21 Spares and Reserves Alternatives Studied the trade-off between holding different levels of inventory Low levels of inventory reduce present cost, but may delay recovery and increase costs during a disaster High levels of inventory are costly to store, may never be used, and may be destroyed in a disaster while in storage

22. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 22 Option3 Status Quo Option2 Option1 Investment in Spares vs. Time to Recovery (Ground Signs)

23. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 23 Overview of Project

24. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 24 Project Goal The goal of the effort is to improve hurricane preparedness and recovery of the Virginia Department of Transportation through the identification of planning and management options and the assessment and evaluation of the associated costs, benefits, and risks

25. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 25 Schedule

26. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 26 Task 1: Review of Literature and Formation of Advisory Committees Review and evaluation of past studies, theory and methodology, other agencies' experience, and databases Two advisory committees: (1) Steering Committee, consisting primarily of VDOT personnel; and (2) a Users' Group, made up of localities and other government agencies, e.g., emergency services.

27. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 27 Task 2. Extension of Prioritization Tool to GIS Platform Integrate the mapping of critical facilities with VDOT's capabilities for geographic information system (GIS) Work closely with the Transportation Information Management Steering Committee (TIMSC) and current managers of VDOT information systems, including GIS, to ensure compatibility.

28. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 28 Task 3. Incorporation of Localities and Additional Critical Facilities Local jurisdictions Intermodal connections (ports, airports, rail) Number of people served Logistic points (e.g., food warehouses, power generation facilities, water bottling plants, natural gas pipeline heads, collection and distribution points).

29. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 29 Task 4. Use of Hurricane Forecasts for VDOT Operations National Hurricane Center and others The effort will demonstrate the efficacy of probabilistic hurricane forecasts in support of various VDOT planning and management functions. Capture the impacts of current decisions to future options

30. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 30 Task 5. Modeling for Agency-Wide Preparedness and Recovery Hierarchical holographic modeling (HHM) will be used to classify overlapping and connected functions, divisions, and performance metrics Similar studies for the DoD, FBI, and PCCIP Foundation for resource allocation and coordination within and outside agency

31. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 31 Task 6. Resources, Databases, and Software Task 7. Reports, Presentations, and Workshop

32. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 32 Risk-based Prioritization of Recovery of Road Network

33. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 33 Priority Setting Goal to prioritize roads and intersections based on critical facilities and condition of road network Restoring or replacing damaged equipment Critical facilities are those necessary for a community’s well-being

34. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 34 Data Collection

35. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 35 Database Requirements Compatible with VDOT’s systems Capable of supporting network optimization models Straightforward to use and to package for VDOT Build onto an existing GIS database of VDOT roads

36. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 36 Arcview TM Software Considered Arcview, MapInfo, and ArcInfo GIS software Arcview recommended by VDOT’s cartographic division Network Analyst TM available with Arcview for optimization

37. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 37 Electronic Road Map Two sources for electronic road maps VDOT’s “Network Level Basemap” CD- ROM used for establishing road system from which network model will be created –Roads are identified by route number and type (interstate, US highway, primary and secondary state routes) –Contains all the roads needed for this study in Arcview TM format

38. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 38 Electronic Road Map (cont.) Census maps obtained from UVA Library for geocoding addresses –Facilities located through address matching process –Maps contain address data including road names, house numbers, and zip codes –Maps are less accurate than VDOT’s street maps but good enough for geocoding

39. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 39 Example of Arcview Map Suffolk District Hampton Roads Emporia Williamsburg Eastern Shore

40. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 40 Locating Critical Facilities Critical facilities are mapped in Arcview Facilities color-coded in Arcview, according to the type of facility Facility maps will overlay the road maps The facilities will be separated into themes by category and subcategory

41. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 41 Geocoding Facilities Arcview will locate many facilities automatically with a street address Street addresses are easy to obtain for most critical facilities, simplifying data collection Geocoding works roughly 90% of the time, and remaining facilities are located manually

42. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 42 Facility Information In addition to locating facilities on a map, Arcview will store facility data –Address, coordinates, facility category and subcategory, street assignment, etc. Information will be available for network prioritization model

43. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 43 Classification of Critical Facilities

44. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 44 Critical Facilities by Locality

45. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 45 Phases of Preparedness ….

46. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 46 Facilities and Road Network

47. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 47 Future Classification of Facilities Critical facility categories will be mapped to a list of transportation stakeholders, including meeting invitees Looking to refine the categories further for the most complete highway recovery What additional facilities do the stakeholders identify as critical

48. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 48 Optimization of Recovery

49. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 49 Agency-wide Hierarchical Holographic Modeling

50. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 50 Hurricane Project HHM What is HHM Preliminary Structure Comments and suggestions

51. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 51 Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) Hierarchical Multiple levels of the problem: –Emergency preparedness and response Hurricanes, snow, flooding, other natural events (earthquake, tornado), man-made events (accidental, deliberate) Multiple levels of the agencies involved –State, local, federal, multi-state Intra-agency and inter-agency

52. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 52 Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) Holographic Portrays interactions across all levels and sublevels Multi-dimensional vs. 2-dimensional A holograph vs. a photograph

53. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 53 Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) Modeling A representation of the real world –The problem –The agencies Permits evaluation and planning Can vary in degree of complexity

54. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 54

55. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 55

56. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 56 Example: Type of Emergency

57. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 57 Agencies & Stakeholders

58. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 58 Agency Responsibility:VDOT

59. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 59 Summary and Discussion A hurricane or other major disaster can impair transportation for months or years A method is established to prioritize the recovery using an electronic map in Arcview to identify facilities and roads The GIS map will allow for the location of critical facilities across the Suffolk District

60. Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville 60 Summary and Discussion (cont.) Critical facilities will be categorized and weighted to find the most efficient recovery The optimization models will address short, medium, and long-term recovery Agency-wide disaster recovery will be studied using Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM)