1. Assessing the impact of higher education expansion on economic restructuring, occupational change and access to opportunity in Brazil and India Kate Purcell, Warwick University, IER, UK Nadya Araujo Guimaraes, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil Jeemol Unni, GIDR/IRMA India Rakesh Basant, ORF Delhi/ IIM Ahmadabad India ESRC Research Pathfinder Programme Collaborative Analysis of Micro data Resources Brazil India ESDS International Annual Conference, IOM London, 30 th November 2009

2. 1.Economic restructuring, ‘the knowledge economy’ and the global change – implications for economic growth, social integration and employment in Brazil and India 2.Higher education in Brazil and India and labour market change: key background policy and contextual issues 3.Information to map the recent and potential graduate labour markets – what is potential of, and challenges for, parallel and comparative research? 4.Statistical analyses and mixed methods research in the UK: feasibility of parallel analyses in Brazil, India and other emerging economies? 5.Better data to inform national and international policies: how best can effort and investment be made?

3. Brazilian and Indian HE Issues Supply of HE places does not meet demand, or requirements of economy Past under-investment in State-funded HEIs Widespread lack of regulation, especially in growing private sectors Inequality of access and information: –by socio-economic background – State universities largely accessed by elite young people from elite private schools and colleges; –By gender –by location (rural/urban and region –By ethnicity (and in India, caste and religion) Variable quality of provision – ranging from world-class to very poor quality Emigration of graduates from elite HEIs to overseas opportunities Widespread underemployment of graduates in ‘high demand’ urban growth areas Unemployment of graduates in rural areas Complacency and vested interests of elites in countries with wide disparities in wealth, resources and opportunities

4. Higher education in the emerging economies: key questions What are the returns to higher education (HE) investment for graduates, employers, communities and national economies? What should be the basis of HE planning and provision…...and who is responsible for providing and paying for it? Should student demand of employers’ needs drive the expansion of higher education? Does the expansion of higher education increase social and economic equality of opportunity?

5. The research questions What are the strengths and weaknesses of existing micro- data sources in relation to addressing these questions? What can be done to amalgamate, reinterpret or reclassify, replicate or develop exiting sources and how can information gaps be rectified for future practice? How effectively is it possible to investigate the relationship between HE provision, economic restructuring and social change? (What is the relationship between the supply of and demand for highly-qualified and educated labour market recruits?) What facilitates and obstructs access to HE, career opportunities and human potential ? (How effective have recent attempts been to reduce inequalities of access?

6. Data sources to be used In Brazil Socio-demographic data from the PNAD (National Household Sample Survey) conducted annually by the Office of Demographic Research in Brazil (allows urban/rural comparisons) Longitudinal data from the RAIS-MIGRA and transversal RAIS data base (Annual administrative record, Ministry of Labor – a census of the Brazilian formal labour market (including detailed investigation of selective dataset of graduates) Analysis of data from two major affirmative action programmes of the operation of quota systems at two large universities In India National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO), Employment Unemployment Survey, 1993-94, 1999-2000, 2004-05 (HE participation, caste, religion, household, occupation, sector, etc). National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO), Special Survey on social (education) infrastructure, 1995-96 and 2005-06 (includes use of public and private HEIs and ‘recognised’ and ‘unrecognised’ HEIs. In India

7. Summary of activities Comprehensive investigation of existing data sources Preliminary development of new data analysis instruments, building on UK work Consultative workshops with key stakeholders Production of reports and thematic papers Proposal for further empirical research building on the findings. This tripartite research is being conducted by interdisciplinary teams of researchers in India and in Brazil – sociologists, economists, management studies specialists with expertise in using these databases and experience of primary survey and case study research. For further information and links relating to the Institute’s UK higher education and labour market research and related projects see: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/ier/research/glmf