1. Public Opinion in Ghana: What Ghanaians Think About the Elections, the Economy and Politics Chris McCarty PHC6716 July 20,2011

2. Introduction The Republic of Ghana experienced a series of coups since its independence in 1957 The last was in 1981 by led by Flight Lieutenant Jerry Rawlings On December 7, 1996 the Republic of Ghana held Presidential and Parliamentary elections Jerry Rawlings was a candidate (Maps courtesy of CIA World Factbook)

3. IFES and survey Several donor groups (e.g. USAID) contracted with the International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES) to: 1.Create a system for holding an election 2.Advertise the election 3.Monitor the elections 4.Conduct a post-election survey The survey population were all Ghanaians 18 or older who were eligible to vote IFES did not require respondents to be registered to vote

4. Main Questions Did Ghanaians think the elections were honest? What proportion of Ghanaians observed irregularities at the polling station? Did Ghanaians have faith in their government and its various branches?

5. Regions of Ghana 10 regions (roughly based on tribal lines) One main ethnic group (Ashanti) and several smaller groups Two main religious groups (69% Christian, 16% Muslim) 10 language groups (excluding English) In 1997 many Ghanaians were mono- lingual non-English Jerry Rawlings was from Volta Region

6. Political issues to consider Several political parties, but two main parties 1.NPP – The party of the Ashanti ethnic group Opposition party Party of Dr. Kwame Nkrumah, the first president and leader of uprising against British in 1957 2.NDC – The party of Jerry Rawlings, the sitting president This party was made up largely of people in rural non-Ashanto areas There were allegations that President Rawlings used his office to send resources to non-Ashanti areas NPP support was strong in Ashanti Region and Greater Accra

7. Overview of Sample Design Initial target margin of error: – ±2 percent for all of Ghana – ±7 percent for each region This required about 220 surveys for each region Ultimately we decided we could afford 2,300 interviews for all of Ghana

8. Sample Design Census versus Polling Stations There had been a recent Census, but most Ghanaians did not trust it IFES had to build an election system from scratch – They divided the country into polling regions based on their own assessments of population concentrations – They made a concerted effort to register voters – Ghanaians trusted the voter registration system more than the Census The decision was to use polling stations as the cluster to sample Interviewers would conduct 10 interviews per polling station Since there were no physical descriptions for polling areas we used unit committee areas which did have a physical description

9. Sample Distribution Started with 1,500 respondents Randomly selected 150 across all of Ghana – This was done to ensure a defensible national sample – This is not conventional – It was decided that over-sampling and weighting would be difficult to defend to a country not accustomed to surveys The number of voters in each polling station varied from 50-500 Polling stations with more voters were given a higher probability of selection Ashanti and Greater Accra regions had, by far, the largest population and therefore received an over-sample Those regions that did not receive at least 220 interviews were raised to 220 This required adding 22 more polling stations

10. Sample Design Table Ashanti and Greater Accra were (and still are) the population centers They received an over-sample RegionFrequencyPercent of SamplePercent of registered votersWeight Ashanti27011.717.21.47 Brong Ahafo2209.69.81.02 Central2209.68.30.86 Eastern2209.611.41.19 Greater Accra27011.716.91.44 Northern2209.68.70.91 Upper East2209.64.70.49 Upper West2209.62.90.30 Western2209.610.41.08 Volta2209.69.71.01 Ghana2300100 NA

11. Household and respondent selection Sub-contracted with an international survey research firm Research International – They had a local office – They had been used on other research by staff members Field supervisors took team to polling station The first day they mapped the area indicating all households – If a household was a compound this was broken into a set of houses A fixed random number sheet told them the order they would select the 10 households – The maps were on the back of the questionairre indicating the household – These had to be turned in – A set of three interviews per region were verified by IFES and the Electoral Commission staff Within the household all members 18+ were enumerated and a second list of random numbers picked the respondent

12. Representation of tribes in sample Survey translated into: – English – Akan (Ashanti) – Ga – Ewe – Dagbani – Fanti – Brong

13. Comparison of sex distribution between sample and Voter Registration by region

14. Comparison of age distribution between sample and Voter Registration by region

16. Frequency (and percent) of those who observed dishonest practices

20. Conclusion Following survey we did a presentation in each of the 10 regions Overall attendees felt the survey was legitimate Most thought the actual vote was honestly conducted and honestly counted Many did not consider the elections fair because they thought Jerry Rawlings misused his position to get votes – Rawlings largely ignored Ashanti region but did development projects in rural Ghanaian regions – This might be considered normal in other countries