1. SOYBEAN OUTLOOK 2015 Midwest & Great Plains/Western Extension Summer Outlook Conference Louisville, Kentucky Host, University of Kentucky Jim Hilker Department of Agricultural, Food, And Resource Economics Michigan State University August 13-14, 2015

2. 2015-2016 Continued Volatility relative to pre 2007 –Weather, Frost Scare, U.S. and World –But less Volatility than 2007-2013 –U.S. and World Economy –Energy Prices –Value of the Dollar –Fight for Acres Price seems hi, low, ok? fundamentals –World demand –Crop is not made, risk premium?

3. Monthly Soybean Futures

4. Nov 2015 Soybean Futures

11. Released August 10, 2015, NASS

15. Soy Good to Excellent Ratings Source: USDA-NASS, Aug. 2, 2015 Nationwide, 63% of the soy crop is rated Good to Excellent Last year 71% Chad Hart, Iowa State University

16. Early Soy Yield Estimate -793.8 + 0.412* Year + 0.1405*Good to Excellent (8.96) (9.28) (4.57) (t Stats) R Square = 0.825 Week 32 Crop Progress Chad Hart, Iowa State University

21. U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand USDA/WASDE August 12, 2015

25. Nov 2015 Soybean Futures

26. October 2015 Soybean Oil Futures

27. October 2015 Soybean Meal Futures

28. December 2015 Soybean Meal Futures

30. World Soybean Production USDA/WASDE August 12, 2015

32. ELECTRONIC US DOLLAR INDEX (@DXU15)

33. ELECTRONIC EURO FX (@EUU15)

38. ELECTRONIC BRAZILIAN REAL (@BRU15)

54. Soybean Futures 8/12/15

55. Soybean Futures 8/13/15

56. Aug 2015 Soybean Futures

57. Nov 2015 Soybean Futures

58. Nov 2015 Soybean Futures 8/13/15

59. July 2016 Soybean Futures

60. July 2016 Soybean Futures 8/13/15

61. 2016 and Beyond Fight for acres –Nov 16 Soybeans/Dec 16 Corn –8.85 ¾ / 3.68 = 2.41 –ADM New Crop Cash Bids Mid-Mich – 8.60 / 3.23 = 2.66 Continued Volatility –Weather, U.S. and World U.S. and World Economy Value of the Dollar U.S. and World Trade Policy Geopolitical Couple very short world soybean crop A very large soybean crop

62. Pricing Considerations What should Buyers Do? –Buying opportunity? Soymeal Corn DDG’s Other

64. Pricing Considerations What should Sellers Do? Can we predict the basis?

66. Jim Hilker’s Web Page http://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/ Thanks Questions/Discussion

67. MSU is an affirmative- action, equal-opportunity employer. Michigan State University Extension programs and materials are open to all without regard to race, color, national origin, gender, gender identity, religion, age, height, weight, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, marital status, family status or veteran status.