1. Status of the Southeastern Bering Sea – Upper Trophic Level and Aggregate Indicators Linking Ecosystem-Based Management Goals with Ecosystem Research Fisheries And The Environment

2. I. ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT Objectives for Ecosystem Protection: 1.Maintain predator-prey relationships a.pelagic forage availability b.spatial/temporal conc. of fishery impact on forage fish c.removals of top predators d.introduction of non-native species 2.Maintain diversity a.species diversity b.functional (trophic, structural habitat) diversity c.genetic diversity 3.Maintain energy flow and balance a.human-induced energy redirection b.system impacts attributable to energy removal CLIMATE and FISHING

3. Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands 199520001990198519801975 1970 BS Pelagic Trawl Duration BS Bottom Trawl Duration AI Bottom Trawl Duration Hook and Line Effort Summer Bottom Temp. FHS (R/S) Rock sole (R/S) ATF (R/S) GT (R/S) Northerns (R/S) POP (R/S) YFS (R/S) RLKI Productivity TBMU Productivity BLKI Productivity Total crab biomass BS Richness Pollock (R/S) Cod (R/S) AK Plaice (R/S) Jellyfish biomass BS Diversity Total CPUE Atka (R/S) AOI COMU Productivity May SST Herring recruits PDO Total salmon catch Surf. Winter Air Temp. AI Trophic level Ice Cover Index BS Trophic level

4. Objectives for Ecosystem Protection: 1.Maintain predator-prey relationships by examining: a.pelagic forage availability b.spatial/temporal conc. of fishery impact on forage fish c.removals of top predators d.introduction of non-native species 2.Maintain diversity by examining: a.species diversity b.functional (trophic, structural habitat) diversity c.genetic diversity 3.Maintain energy flow and balance by examining: a.human-induced energy redirection b.system impacts attributable to energy removal

5. Objectives for Ecosystem Protection: 1.Maintain predator-prey relationships by examining: a.pelagic forage availability Significance threshold: changes outside natural variability for prey relative to predator demands Indicators: -NMFS bottom trawl survey catches of forage fish -BASIS surveys -age-0 pollock (BS) -ADFG herring -Groundfish trends -Groundfish fishery bycatch amounts -Bristol Bay sockeye salmon

6. FORAGE – NMFS (Lauth)

7. FORAGE – Togiak Herring (F. West) Biomass and Catch (1,000s mt)

8. Juvenile Sockeye Counts 20002001200220032004 Age-0 Pollock Counts FORAGE – Juvenile sockeye and pollock -BASIS (Eisner et al.)

9. Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon (L. Fair)

10. POLLOCK -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 COD -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 GT -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 ATF -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 ROCK SOLE -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 NORTHERNS -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 YFS -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 19601966 1972197819841990 1996 2002 FH SOLE -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 19601966197219781984199019962002 POP -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 1960196619721978198419901996 2002 AI ATKA -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 19601966197219781984199019962002 1976/77 shift 1988/89 shift Other shift AK PLAICE -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 19601966 1972197819841990 1996 2002 R/S Anomalies B.Sea Groundfish

11. Groundfish – Combined Std. Indices of Recruitment and Survival (Mueter)

12. Biological Response to Climate Flatfish Distribution- (Spencer)

13. Objectives for Ecosystem Protection: 1.Maintain predator-prey relationships by examining: a.pelagic forage availability b.spatial/temporal conc. of fishery impact on forage fish c.removals of top predators d.introduction of non-native species 2.Maintain diversity by examining: a.species diversity b.functional (trophic, structural habitat) diversity c.genetic diversity 3.Maintain energy flow and balance by examining: a.human-induced energy redirection b.system impacts attributable to energy removal

14. Objectives for Ecosystem Protection: 1.Maintain predator-prey relationships by examining: a.pelagic forage availability b.spatial/temporal conc. of fishery impact on forage fish c.removals of top predators d.introduction of non-native species 2.Maintain diversity by examining: a.species diversity b.functional (trophic, structural habitat) diversity c.genetic diversity 3.Maintain energy flow and balance by examining: a.human-induced energy redirection b.system impacts attributable to energy removal Significance threshold: catches high enough to cause biomass of top predator(s) to fall below min. biol. acceptable limits Indicators: -Trophic level of the catch -Population status of top predators -Fishing takes of top predators -Seabird incidental take

15. Total catch (1000 t) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 FIB Index 19601970198019902000 19601970198019902000 TOP PREDATORS – Trophic level of the catch FIB= index that shows a decline in TL only when catches do not increase as expected

16. Northern fur seal pup production continued decline (Sinclair et al.) Pups born (1,000's) St. George 10 20 30 40 50 73788388939803 St. Paul 125 175 225 275 325 73788388939803 TOP PREDATORS

17. TOP PREDATORS – Seabirds (Fitzgerald et al.) Seabird Breeding Chronology 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 >3days earlier than average =within 3days of average >3 days later than average Frequency N.BS/Chuk. SE BS SW BS GOA SEAK Seabird Population Trends 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Negative trend No discernable trend Positive trend Frequency N.BS/Chuk. SE BS SW BS GOA SEAK Seabird Productivity Levels 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 >20% below average Within 20% of average >20% above average Frequency N.BS/Chuk. SE BS SW BS GOA SEAK

18. Fishing Effort (in 1,000's of hooks) Incidental take rate (per 1,000 hooks) 1993 19941995 1996 1997 199819992000 20012002 2003 BSAI 0.1 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 0 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.2 EffortIncidental take TOP PREDATORS Seabird Incidental Take (Fitzgerald et al.)

19. 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 198019821984 198619881990199219941996 19982000 20022004 Biomass (t) PREDATOR -Bering Sea Jellyfish (Walters)

20. Objectives for Ecosystem Protection: 1.Maintain predator-prey relationships by examining: a.pelagic forage availability b.spatial/temporal conc. of fishery impact on forage fish c.removals of top predators d.introduction of non-native species 2.Maintain diversity by examining: a.species diversity b.functional (trophic, structural habitat) diversity c.genetic diversity 3.Maintain energy flow and balance by examining: a.human-induced energy redirection b.system impacts attributable to energy removal

21. Objectives for Ecosystem Protection: Maintain predator-prey relationships by examining: pelagic forage availability spatial/temporal conc. of fishery impact on forage fish removals of top predators introduction of non-native species 2. Maintain diversity by examining: a. species diversity Significance threshold: catch high enough to cause biomass to fall below or be kept from recovering from min. biol. acceptable limits Indicators: -Status of protected and managed stocks relative to thresholds -Species richness and diversity -Areas closed to fishing -Popn trends -other nontarget species from surveys (eg. eelpouts) -Bycatch trends of sensitive species lacking population estimates

22. Ecosystem Mngt Info. – Area closures (Coon)

23. SPECIES DIVERSITY – Species richness and diversity (Mueter) Shannon-Wiener index Richness= number of species per haul Diversity= function of number of species and relative abundance per haul

24. Objectives for Ecosystem Protection: 1.Maintain predator-prey relationships by examining: a.pelagic forage availability b.spatial/temporal conc. of fishery impact on forage fish c.removals of top predators d.introduction of non-native species 2.Maintain diversity by examining: a.species diversity b.functional (trophic, structural habitat) diversity c.genetic diversity 3.Maintain energy flow and balance by examining: a.human-induced energy redirection b.system impacts attributable to energy removal

25. Objectives for Ecosystem Protection: 2. Maintain diversity by examining: b. Functional (trophic and structural habitat) diversity Significance threshold: catch high enough to cause change outside observed natural variability Indicators: -guild or size diversity -bottom gear effort -HAPC biota bycatch -habitat research: Distribution of deep-water corals in AI Seafloor mapping and colonization studies Effects of trawling on benthic habitat Growth and recruitment of coral Spatial and temporal patterns in BS invertebrate assemblages

26. a Demersal fish community size spectrum, 1982-2002 (Bartkiw et al.) Through time: fewer small individuals and more large individuals

27. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1990199219941996199820002002 2004 Observed Bottom Trawl duration (24 hour days) GOA AI BS SPECIES DIVERSITY- Bottom trawl effort (Coon)

28. FUNCTIONAL DIVERSITY – HAPC Biota (Lauth)

29. Objectives for Ecosystem Protection: 1.Maintain predator-prey relationships by examining: a.pelagic forage availability b.spatial/temporal conc. of fishery impact on forage fish c.removals of top predators d.introduction of non-native species 2.Maintain diversity by examining: a.species diversity b.functional (trophic, structural habitat) diversity c.genetic diversity 3.Maintain energy flow and balance by examining: a.human-induced energy redirection b.system impacts attributable to energy removal

30. Objectives for Ecosystem Protection: 3. Maintain energy flow and balance by examining: a. human-induced energy redirection Significance threshold: long-term changes in system biomass, respiration, production, energy-cycling due to discards and offal Indicators: -Prohibited species bycatch amounts -Nontarget catch and discards -Groundfish discards -Trends in scavenger species

31. ENERGY REDIRECTION Prohibited Catch (Hiatt and Terry) 0 5000 10000 15000 No. of crab (1000s) BAIRDI CRAB OTHER TANNER CRAB 0 100 200 300 400 No. fish (1000s) CHINOOK SALMON OTHER SALMON 0 100 200 300 1994 19951996 19971998199920002001200220032004 No. of crab (1000s) RED KING CRAB OTHER KING CRAB 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 19941995199619971998 199920002001200220032004 Metric tons HALIBUT MORTALITY HERRING BYCATCH

32. ENERGY REDIRECTION Discards (Hiatt and Terry) Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands 0 100 200 300 19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% Discards (1000 t) Discard rate Tonnage discarded Percent discarded Improved retention regulations

33. Objectives for Ecosystem Protection: 1.Maintain predator-prey relationships by examining: a.pelagic forage availability b.spatial/temporal conc. of fishery impact on forage fish c.removals of top predators d.introduction of non-native species 2.Maintain diversity by examining: a.species diversity b.functional (trophic, structural habitat) diversity c.genetic diversity 3.Maintain energy flow and balance by examining: a.human-induced energy redirection b.system impacts attributable to energy removal

34. Objectives for Ecosystem Protection: 3. Maintain energy flow and balance by examining: b. system impacts attributable to energy removal Significance threshold: long-term changes in system biomass, respiration, production, energy-cycling due to fishery removals of energy Indicators: -Total catch relative to production

35. ENERGY REMOVAL -Total Catch

36. ENERGY REMOVAL– ASP (Mueter)

37. Groundfish FMP Goals Prevent overfishing Promote sustainable fisheries and communities Preserve food web Manage incidental catch and reduce bycatch and waste Avoid impacts to seabirds and marine mammals Reduce and avoid impacts to habitat Promote equitable and efficient use of fishery resources Increase Alaska native consultation Improve data quality, monitoring and enforcement Management Goals Ecosystem Assessment Objectives Maintain predator-prey relationships Maintain diversity Maintain energy flow and balance

38. Groundfish FMP Goals Prevent overfishing Promote sustainable fisheries and communities Preserve food web Manage incidental catch and reduce bycatch and waste Avoid impacts to seabirds and marine mammals Reduce and avoid impacts to habitat Promote equitable and efficient use of fishery resources Increase Alaska native consultation Improve data quality, monitoring and enforcement Ecosystem Considerations Indices Status of stocks, annual surplus productivity Fishing overcapacity programs Pelagic forage availability, spatial/temporal conc. of fishery impact on forage fish, removals of top predators, introduction of non-native species Prohibited species, discards, bycatch, scavenger population trends Seabird and mammal incidental take, population abundance, productivity, and chronology trends EFH research, effects of fishing gear on habitat research Fishing overcapacity programs, groundfish fleet composition ANTEK of climate regimes

39. Executive Summary CLIMATE –North Pacific in uncertain state –BS continues to warm, less sea ice and earlier retreat BIOLOGY –BS summer zooplankton biomass: low 2000-2004 –BS jellyfish biomass: low 2000-2004 –Warming trend may affect flatfish distribution –Most seabirds show no discernable population trend –2002 seabird breeding chronology was early –2004 N. fur seal pups born continued to decline –ASP in BS decreased from 1978-2004 FISHERY EFFECTS –2003 and 2004 increases in herring and other salmon bycatch –2003 seabird incidental take rate same as 2002

40. Website: Geoff Lang http://access.afsc.noaa.gov/reem/ecoweb/index.cfm

41. Summary No noted significant adverse impacts of fishing on the ecosystem ( relating to predator/prey interactions, energy flow/removal, or diversity). There are gaps in understanding the system-level impacts and spatial/temporal effects of fishing on community structure and prey availability. Future: incorporate predictions from multispecies models. Need research, validation of models, and models focused on understanding spatial processes, and improvements in monitoring systems A range of possible climate scenarios and plausible effects on recruitment should be entertained.