1. IENG 423 Design of Decision Support Systems Decision Support System Concepts

2. Decision Support Systems Recall the house selling problem- Offer A: $180,000 Offer B: $150,000 Goal: maximize the amount received for the house

3. Decision Support Systems So, what is the problem in making this decision? Decision: accepting offer A satisfies the goal, so offer A it is. Do we need a support system to make this decision? Probably not.

4. Decision Support Systems So, when do we need a decision support system Most real-world decision making faced by company, government and other decision makers is more complex than this

5. Decision Support Systems We have already talked about some complications… Multiple objectives Conflicting objectives Subjective Expected Utility of decision makers

6. Decision Support Systems But there are other complications to decision making Requires new knowledge or skill  We are missing piece of knowledge or skill needed to figure it out Computational demand too high  We could calculate a solution but is it too complex for decisions in reasonable time Data acquisition load too high  There’s too much data to retrieve or analyze to make the appropriate decision Requires a high level of expertise

7. Decision Support Systems Requires new knowledge or skill  We don’t know how to figure it out Back to selling our house  Offer A: $180,000  Offer B: ¥15,000,000 Which do you choose? Missing knowledge How do we fix this problem? www.xe.com

8. Decision Support Systems Computational demand too high  We could calculate a solution but is it too complex for decisions in reasonable time You work for a school board and you have been asked to figure out the financial and performance implications of replacing a fleet of school buses to hybrids (hydrocarbon fuel/battery) Under difference scenarios – all or phased, several different vendors, gasoline, ethanol, ethanol from lunch room wastes, E85,…) Could you calculate this? Yes Would it be easy? No Computational modeling – simulations, forecasts, spreadsheets  Excel

9. Decision Support Systems Data acquisition load too high  There’s too much data to retrieve and/or analyze to make the appropriate decision You work for a clothing manufacturer that regularly bids on contracts to provide uniforms in large quantities Your colleagues have to select from hundreds of textile suppliers, each with 100s of fabrics with a variety of qualities and characteristics, different levels of availability, and at various prices…

10. Decision Support Systems Data acquisition load too high  There’s too much data to retrieve and/or analyze to make the appropriate decision Clothing bids …continued… How do you find the right materials to bid this job and satisfy the resulting contract Start calling the suppliers Thumb through catalogs Retrieve the needed data from a database  Access, MySQL, Oracle, …

11. Decision Support Systems Requires a high level of expertise Complex chains of decisions Work through set of logical inferences Triage in a hospital emergency room  Patient: Male, 65 years old, escaped from structure fire in home, minor burns on arms and legs, chest pains, shortness of breath,…  Decision: what to do- apply treatment, get more data (blood test) Replicate the behavior of a human expert  Expert systems, VP-Expert, custom application

12. What is a Decision Support System? “Any information system that is not a transaction processing system” …so what is a transaction processing system? …not a good definition!

13. What is a Decision Support System …not the same as a Management Information System (MIS) …not the same as a data processing system

14. What is a Decision Support System Decision Support Systems… “Assist managers in their decision making processes in semistructured tasks.” “Support, rather than replace, managerial judgment.” “Improve the effectiveness of decision making rather than efficiency”  from: Peter Keen and Michael Morton, “Decision Support Systems: An Organizational Perspective” Addison Wesley, 1978

15. What is a Decision Support System? “Decision support systems are a class of computer-based information systems including knowledge based systems that support decision making activities. “information systemsknowledge based systemsdecision making from Wikipedia  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_support_system

16. What is a Decision Support System For our purposes- an Information System computer based support decision making  that means there are decisions to make  decisions are information based designed for specific target users designed for critical decisions designed for recurrent use (usually)

17. What is a Decision Support System? A DSS must – Address a problem area or domain Have a set of target users (decision makers) Have a set of goals – one or more Have a set of decisions that address each of the goals Each decision must be supported by information (data elements, reports, projections, etc.) Each decision must have a set of alternatives (choices) Each alternative must have an associated action

18. What is a Decision Support System? A DSS should have Metrics – measures of performance in terms of system goals Feedback – a way to assess the effectives of the DSS in supporting the decision making process

19. What is a Decision Support System? A DSS must – have a means to collect and store relevant data have a means to retrieve, filter and organize relevant data have a mechanism to process, transform, and analyze information have the ability to deliver or present information in decision relevant ways (interface)

20. A Decision Support System is not a completely automated system is intended to compliment the human user is not intended to replace expertise and human judgment is intended to make decision making better or even possible in situation where it would be difficult or impossible

21. Decision Support Systems Can use a range of tools to support decision making Have been around for a while, but take advantage of modern technology A variety of modern information system tools make powerful Decision Supports Systems widely available and accessible

22. Decision Support Systems Applications Manufacturing Agriculture Homeland Security Urban Planning Medicine and anything else