1. Air Pollution Risks The Causality Loop of Human Activity and its Consequences Brandon Gustafson

2. Causality Loop Human activity and its associated risks operate in a loop Populations engage in activities to maximize their welfare These activities spur a chain of events that leads to elevated risk which diminishes welfare Recognizing the environmental consequences of human activities, corrective actions are taken to mitigate the negative effects. These corrective actions change the environment itself and the cycle repeats This presentation will detail the steps of the cycle and provide an example Using the example we will estimate ways to reduce the risks Finally we offer some commentary and analysis

3. Given Population Participates in activities which increase welfare Goods and Services are in demand to provide for these activities Goods and services require materials

4. Materials flow causes pollution of varying concentrations Pollutants at varying concentrations have varying effects Each effect posses different risks to humans

5. These risks in turn effect our welfare Our welfare being effected causes us to develop policy for action These actions lead to a changes in our activity

6. Quantification of Risk Assign coefficients to each node Able to quantify risk

7. Start with a given population Engages in “a” activities per person Which requires “g” goods and services per activity In turn requires “m” materials per good and service required

8. The use of materials produces pollution with concentration “c” per mass flow of material The concentration level has effect “e” per concentrate Which produces risk “r” per effect

9. Risk = a*g*m*c*e*r*P The coefficients are multiplied to find the overall risk This effects welfare and action is taken To reduce risk action can be taken at any node affecting the coefficient associated with it and thus the overall equation

10. Key Features The entire process functions in a loop Each action is connected to overall welfare Overall welfare affects future action Ideally an equilibrium is reached where utility* is maximized while risk is minimized *Utility being defined as a person’s welfare or happiness

11. Actions and the Causality Coefficients At each node actions can be taken to reduce the overall risk Population is difficult to change but people can change their actions

12. People can turn their lights off sooner in the day and use 5% less electricity Engineers can increase factory efficiency by 5%, using less raw materials to produce each kWh Factories use different fuels with 5% less pollutants Engineers can improve transmissions lines and light bulb efficiency so that each activity requires 5% fewer kWh Care can be taken in selecting fuels and combustion techniques so that the effect of any pollutants emitted is reduced by 5% Communities can plan where to build factories and people can be smart about when they conduct certain activities reducing the risk by 5%

13. Action Example These simple reductions lead to an overall decrease of 26.5% of what it otherwise would be 0.95a*0.95g*0.95m*0.95c*0.95e*0.95r*P = 0.735(a*g*m*c*e*r*P) => 26.5% reduction

14. Reduction of Mercury Emission Since 1990 Mercury mobilization has dropped dramatically 6 possible nodes for action to take place Primarily materials flow and concentration Janja D. Husar and Rudolf B. Husar Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri

15. Action Highlights 1992- First legislation concerning batteries Largest fraction of Mercury mobilization 1990’s- Paint industry began to phase out mercury use as a fungicide Mid-1990’s- Put limits and regulations on mercury containing products The Materials Flow of Mercury in the Economies of the United States and the World By John L. Sznopek and Thomas G. Goonan U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1197

16. Mercury Summary Restrictions placed on mercury containing resources => Forced industry to use different materials i.e. fungicides Restrictions on mercury in products => Forced to use less concentration of mercury in products i.e. batteries

17. World Perspective Although different units, the comparison is striking CitySO2 Micrograms per cu. m Population Thousands Los Angeles912, 410 Tehran2096, 836 Rio de Janeiro12910, 181 http://www.worldbank.org/nipr/wdi98/table3.1 2.pdf WHO Healthy Cities Air Management Information System and the World Resources Institute 1996

18. Comments and Analysis Each action is made through a single individual decision However, the consequences to these actions are borne by all !!! This is known as an externality People are not aware of the full environmental and other costs of conducting their action and therein lies the problem To remedy this problem the community can educate people to make them aware of the full cost of their actions Taxation can also be used provided the unseen costs can be quantified Improvement can be made at any node However, it is likely greater factory efficiency will be hard to come by The big improvements need to come from a change in human activity More activity does not always mean greater welfare but it does mean greater risk Moreover, in the long run a shift to a cleaner energy source is a must

19. Summary The Causation Loop of Human Activity is a cycle Human welfare is adjusted up and down by human activity and associated risk The cycle is composed of nodes. Each individual decision at each node effects everyone collectively By making small 5% improvements at each node an overall reduction of 26.5% could be achieved People need to be educated on the true affects of their actions In the short run, improvements will come from a shift in human activity In the long run a cleaner energy source and alternative fuels are essential

20. Example People like to consume electricity They use it to increase their personal utility or welfare everyday To meet the demands power companies have to generate enough electricity

21. California Electricity 33.9 Million people used 78 TWh of electricity residentially in the year 2000 61.9 kWh per dollar ($) GSP Or, 2300 kWh per person Brown, Richard E. and Jonathon G. Koomey, “Electricity Use in California: Past Trends and Present Usage Patterns” May 2002 UC-Berkley

22. California Pollution Raw materials such as coal and other fossil fuels flow to power production plants Pollution is produced Pollution in units of pounds per kWh is listed below for 8 major pollutants CO 2 lbs/kWh NO x lbs/kWh SO 2 lbs/kWh Hg lbs/kWh PM 10 lbs/kWh PM 2.5 lbs/kWh VOC lbs/kWh CO lbs/kWh California0.6330.000522.0001734.21x10 -11 0.0000060.0000080.0000260.000175 Leonardo Academy Inc. “Emission Factors and Energy Prices for the Cleaner Greener Environmental Program” January 2003

23. Pollution Density Table depicts the amount of pollution per person per day However, this is only accounting for residential use CO 2 Daily lbs/person NO x Daily lbs/person SO 2 Daily lbs/person Hg Daily lbs/person PM 10 Daily lbs/person PM 2.5 Daily lbs/person VOC Daily lbs/person CO Daily lbs/person California3.990410.0032870.001092.66x10 -10 5.75x10 -5 4.93x10 -5 1.64x10 -4 0.001104 Leonardo Academy Inc. “Emission Factors and Energy Prices for the Cleaner Greener Environmental Program” January 2003

24. Effects & Risks The effects of these pollutants range from mild to severe From simply low visibility all the way to respiratory problems Particularly affected are the young, the old, and the asthmatic The actual risk depends on the person Nationally, each year 50,000 people are estimated to have died from air pollution Those with previous lung conditions are at the greatest risk Although, we are all at greater risk than we otherwise would be

25. Welfare to Action Reduced health and death reduce welfare Reduced welfare spurs action Governmental agencies set pollution limits California Air Resources Board website goes online

26. Types of Actions To increase welfare and/or reduce risk Reducing the population would reduce risk Reducing activity will decrease risk but may also decrease welfare Use less materials i.e. be more efficient Output lower concentrations of pollutants Output pollutants that have less effect and associated risk