1. The Implications of Convergence on Spectrum Management Mike Goddard Director, Spectrum and International Policy Radiocommunications Agency, UK

2. Convergence The merging of broadcasting, telecommunications and computing The convergence of the underlying technologies for delivering information, communication and entertainment to a wide range of users

3. Spectrum Managers need to plan ahead but cannot predict the future External study commissioned by the UK - Mapping the Future of Convergence of Spectrum Management Study based on Future Mapping, developing four scenarios for 2010 (not predictions) Assessment of implications for spectrum management for each scenario

4. Why Scenarios? Addressing uncertainty –Accelerating change in technologies, markets Challenging conventional wisdom –Asking What if? Stimulating strategic thinking –Broader picture of technological, political, economic, environmental, social trends

5. Conventional wisdom constrains future thinking to linear extrapolation of present Uncertainty dealt with by changing forecast ±10% +10% - -10% 2000 2010 Forecasts vs Scenarios We dont know the future We can make a forecast But it will probably be wrong!

6. The Future Can Be Quite Different From What We Expect Complex interaction of political, economic, social, technological influences Totally different shape from present!

7. Scenarios are not …... Predictions: they are alternative visions of future Choices: there is no need to choose between scenarios We imagine the future not to predict it but to understand it and prepare for it

8. Mapping the Future: four very different visions (1) A) Internet Convergence –Internet central to everyday life shaking up value chains - strong brands highly prized –Multiple access platforms, user-friendly interfaces B) Digital Islands –Confused consumers seek refuge in trusted walled gardens – DTV popular, cable thrives

9. Mapping the Future: four very different visions (2) C) Total Mobility –Mobile connectivity key, wide range of service providers, some virtual –WLANs, Bluetooth, frequency-agile technology D) Broadband Revolution –Bandwidth is king, wireless cant compete –electronic-optical interface close to users, wireless links short, high bandwidth

10. Scenarios - delivery mechanisms Title A - Internet Convergence B - Digital Islands C - Total Mobility D - Broadband Revolution Delivery mechanism IP networks using open standards Proprietary closed networks Mobile terminal devices Broadband optical networks (Wireless a poor substitute)

11. Picture is Complex Not straightforward either/or situation End-states can co-exist and interact Dominance of end-states likely to shift over time But some common conclusions emerge

12. Specific conclusions applicable to Spectrum Management Need dynamic, responsive, flexible spectrum management to respond to rapid, unpredictable change Increase use of market-based spectrum management tools such as auctions and trading More spectrum needed for fixed and mobile services Seek modifications to ITU service definitions so that nature of transmissions rather than content determine use made of frequency bands

13. Flexible allocations More general, less specific allocations Introduction of spectrum trading Unregulated/lightly regulated blocks of spectrum

14. More spectrum needed for: Wide area mobile networks Fixed, including fixed wireless access Local area networks Being met by IMT- 2000 decisions Existing bands, higher frequencies (>30 GHz) and especially 40 GHz 2.5 and 5 GHz, plus review of allocations, 2 - 6 GHz

15. Service definitions Why do we allocate specific bands to specific services ? Are the international service definitions still valid ? Do we obey them ? What would we do if we could start afresh ?

16. Basic Assumptions Convergence impacts mainly on broadcasting, fixed and mobile Little impact on other services Need different allocations for incompatible services Can share compatible services

17. Example Fixed service sharing with fixed-satellite service By definition, terminal stations in fixed service are at specified fixed points Hence the two services can co-exist using frequency coordination

18. Example (continued) Many new fixed services are not point-to- point but point-to-multipoint Similarly, in the fixed-satellite service, VSAT networks or direct-to-home services may have terminals anywhere within a specified area Do these applications meet the strict definition of the fixed service? Do the usual sharing assumptions apply?

19. One possible alternative approach (intended to initiate debate, not a formal proposal) Sub-divide the fixed definition into: a)traditional fixed (terminal at specified position) b)Point-to-multipoint (fixed node but terminals anywhere within a specified area) Mobile service definition unchanged Broadcasting could be covered by fixed point-to- multipoint (thus facilitating interactive broadcasting)

20. Review of definitions - objectives Take account of technical and operational developments Provide flexibility for future developments while meeting spectrum management objectives Evaluate the impact on individual allocations Provide general allocations at global level - more detail regionally or nationally

21. Summary Convergence will have major impact on spectrum management Additional spectrum will be needed for some services Allocations and licensing must provide flexibility Traditional service definitions will need to be reviewed The debate must be widened internationally, and especially in the ITU