1. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 1 The application of climate forecasts and agrometeorological information for agriculture, food security, forestry, livestock and fisheries G. Maracchi, F. Meneguzzo, M. Paganini Banjul, Gambia, 9-13 December, 2002

2. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 2 Information needs of FOOD SECURITY Availability of input data Appropriate location Appropriate spatial resolution Timely information

3. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 3 Existing Food Security Systems

4. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 4 Existing Food Security Systems - AGRHYMET SISP Base parameters statistical analysis procedures on rainfall for ecological zoning; a millet simulation model to estimate millet crop conditions and the effect of rainfall distribution; statistical analysis of the yields.

5. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 5 Existing Food Security Systems - AGRHYMET SISP

6. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 6 Existing Food Security Systems - AGRHYMET SISP

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8. 8 Existing Food Security Systems - USAID FEWS The analysis is organised in three sections: Vulnerability/Baseline Information Hazard/Shock Information Risk/Outcome Analysis

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11. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 11 Existing Food Security Systems - DHC-Champs pluviaux The CCD are used in the crop water diagnostic (DHC) in order to produce: maps of the crop water satisfaction maps of the crop water needs maps of crop yields

12. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 12 Existing Food Security Systems - DHC-Champs pluviaux

13. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 13 Existing Food Security Systems - World Food Programme - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping WFP has produced vulnerability assessment maps in 3 stages: identifying the income sources for each relevant group analysing the causal structure of vulnerability reconciling the analysis of risk and coping capacity

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15. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 15 Existing Food Security Systems - FAO GIEWS -monitors food supply and demand -analyses information on production stocks, trade and food aid -monitors export prices -reacts to natural disasters -issues Special Alerts and up-to-date reports

16. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 16 Existing Food Security Systems - FAO GIEWS -web pages on the Internet -develops new approaches for early warning -cultivates and maintains information- sharing between governmental and private actors -depends on the free exchange of information

17. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 17 Existing Food Security Systems - FAO GIEWS

18. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 18 Solving the problem Information available on Internet More appropriate to the decision makers information needs Improved survey methods and operations for monitoring actual and potential outbreak areas Create interaction between producers of information FOOD SECURITY INFORMATION CLIMATE PREDICTION INFORMATION

19. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 19 The local CLIMATE Decreasing annual pluviometry S-N Alternation of dry season (9-5 months) and rainy season The monsoon is the main defining factor Unimodal distribution of the rain

20. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 20 Link between climate and teleconnections The average of the weather over periods The effects of changes in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean on temperature and rainfall patterns in regions that are far away from the Pacific CLIMATE DEFINITION TELECONNECTIONS DEFINITION

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23. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 23 Teleconne- ctions in Sahel

24. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 24 Simultaneous Correlation of Sahel Rainfall with SST (June, July)

25. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 25 Simultaneous Correlation of Sahel Rainfall with SST (August, September)

26. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 26 Correlation of Sahel Rainfall in June and July with SST in May

27. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 27 INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE - location Drought years are associated with the ITCZ being south of its normal position, while wet years are associated with the ITCZ north of normal Warmer SST in Guinea Gulf lead to higher precipitation over Guinea coast (increased moisture) and lesser over Sahel (northerly flow, sinking at low levels)

28. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 28 INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE - location Rapidly increasing SST in May over Guinea cause delayed monsoon in Sahel (June and July)

29. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 29 Synthetic descriptions of atmospheric teleconnection patterns Can be found at following addresses: The Climate Diagnostics Center (NOAA)http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Tele connections Climate Precition Center (NOAA): http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/teledo c/telecontents.html

30. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 30 Existing climate predictions Amount of rainfall IRI Net assessments PRESAO outlook CLIMAG WA enhanced methodology Onset of the growing season IBIMET methodology (Maracchi/Pini) Omotosho method CLIMAG WA enhanced methodology

31. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 31 Applications for 2001 & 2002 Comparison of results per single zone for each yearBUT Each methodology has its own spatial resolution Each methodology has its own temporal resolution

32. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 32 Data formats

33. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 33 The IRI Forecast Process (1) Forecasting the tropical SST anomalies using dynamical and statistical models Using the predicted SST for atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) Estimating the expected skill

34. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 34 Statistical postprocessing of model output Putting all the indications together a final IRI forecast called net assessment issued in the form of maps that show regions having homogeneous forecast probabilities for the below, near and above normal terciles The IRI Forecast Process (2)

35. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 35 Examples of Net Assessments

36. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 36 Omotosho methodology Onset of the growing season The method is empirical/dynamical and uses the following requirements: Difference between the U-component of the wind at 3000 m and at the surface must be between –20 m/s and – 5 m/s Difference between the U-component of the wind at 7500 m and at 3000 m must be between 0 and 10 m/s

37. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 37 Omotosho methodology Onset of the growing season

38. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 38 Predict the seeding decades for the different zones in order to produce advises to peasants The philosophy is to utilise the information already available on INTERNET (NOAA, IGES COLA, ADDS) Onset of the growing season IBIMET method

39. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 39 1 – Rainfall Forecasting section NOAA - Climate Prediction Center, Prediction of the rainfall quantity at 24- 96 hours 2 – Rainfall Estimation section ADDS - Africa Data Dissemination Service, Decadal rainfall estimation images 3 – Field data section Real sowing dates in different areas in Mali collected by local institutions Exercise for the agricultural season 2001

40. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 40 Forecasting Section Total rainfall of the decade Daily forecast images = Through the daily images it is possible to forecast the amount of rainfall expected in the decade and give the advise of the sowing date to farmers

41. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 41 Estimation Section Precipitation Estimate based on GPI, SSM/I, AMSU and GTS The image has been utilised to validate the information prepared by the forecasting information

42. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 42 Field Observation Data Section Field observation areas Data collected by local institutions The collected information are related to the real sowing date

43. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 43 The information of the different three sections has been compared in order to evaluate the process Results-2001 42A

44. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 44 Results-2002 42B

45. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 45 Comparison between predictions

46. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 46 Examples of comparison 2002 wet season Zone 3 Zone 2 Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 CLIMAG WA FORECAST PRESAO FORECAST

47. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 47 MONITORING ACTIVITIES - an added value Allows to evaluate the conditions of the wet season on the agricultural and food situation Allows to evaluate the conditions and the effectiveness of the Early Warning Systems and of the mechanisms of crisis management

48. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 48 MONITORING ACTIVITIES - operational tools Ex. AGRHYMET Regional Centre Bulletins

49. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 49 MONITORING ACTIVITIES - operational tools Satellite images (METEOSAT, NOAA,...) Space-borne information

50. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 50 MONITORING ACTIVITIES - operational tools Warnings diffused by Internet INTERNET

51. Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 51 CONCLUSIONS Improving and merging food security systems Improve interactions and combinations between food security and seasonal prediction systems Using seasonal prediction to define specific inputs (e.g. onset of the growing season)