1. Concept Definition Phase for Clean Electric Power Systems Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative Page 1 4/3/2014

2. Apollo lessons Start with the ultimate goal Characterize alternative systems Choose a direction Page 2 Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative “ We will put a man on the moon before the end of the decade and return him safely to earth” JFK May 25, 1961

3. Clean Energy goal confusion These are not performance goals but technology options Assumes that systems scale, the achievement can be incorporated into larger scale systems Confused by politics and public perceptions Future of Energy objective Focus on the ultimate objective and whole systems –Derive interim goals derived from ultimate objectives Big reductions are inevitable –Fossil fuel is a finite resource Flexible time frame –Sooner is better for health & environment –Climate change may accelerate schedule Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative Page 3 Big (90%) reduction in fossil fuel consumption 30% renewables by 2030 20% wind by 2020 …

4. Classic concept definition Given ultimate goals Develop system concept models to explore, contrast, compare alternative feasible solutions Provide Society with factual feasible choices (m/s B) Follow on phases can be agile Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative Page 4

5. Allocated wind power goals Compatible with clean, (10% fossil fuel) systems Reliable electric power systems Competitive cost Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative Page 5

6. Wincharger system Zenith Radio “farm” (DC) radio –~ 750,000 systems 1930-1940s Provided farmers with quality radio! –Radio was most expensive component –Battery sized for 4 days storage –High electricity cost ~ $2/kWh –Unreliable during July-August Did not survive rural electrification Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative Page 6

7. Wind systems are inefficient Robust systems come from interconnection of a large number of independent generators Reliable clean wind systems require –Full redundancy –Overbuilding wind –Additional transmission assets. Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative Page 7

8. Wind + fossil fuel + storage* Paper summary 0.1% fossil fuel system for PJM region appears to be technically feasible 3x wind energy overbuild, discard 2/3 of electricity ~ 24 hours storage Full peak power fossil fuel backup ~8 hrs/yr Stated cost ~ 38¢/kWh Critique Extreme events (July) drive system size $0.38/kWh cost estimate is optimistic (>$0.67/kWh) Large environmental impact ~24,000 sq miles, the size of West Virginia Concept is sound but needs classical concept development Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative Page 8 * Budischak, et al, Cost minimized combinations of wind, solar, storage, Journal of Power Sources 225, 2013, pp. 60-74

9. Basis for system concept trades PJM published wind & load data –CY2012 EIA published cost estimates, –New 2018 installations –Wind, natural gas, nuclear 15% reserve margin No wind contribution to system capacity –Full redundancy No transmission constraints Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative Page 9 PJM load 2012 Curtailment begins at 25%

10. All natural gas system Reference scenario –100% emissions Cost includes system reserves Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative Page 10 Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014

11. NG + wind + ideal storage Add wind + ideal storage Concept limit Ideal storage –Large size, zero cost, 100% efficient –100% of wind generation displaces natural gas –Line slopes up to the right because wind capital cost exceeds Ngas variable cost Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative Page 11 Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014

12. Wind without storage Curtailment at PJM 2012 –Begins at 26% –Bites at 50% Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative Page 12 Curtailed system cost Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014

13. Grid scale storage Storage size is 2,135 GWh –One day at average load Estimated cost $200 $/kWh based on Bath Co, VA pumped hydro facility –1,000 ft vertical elevation –0.4 sq mile upper reservoir –105’ level change 80% round trip efficiency 68 Bath county facilities required Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative Page 13 Storage system impact Storage state of charge Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014

14. Nuclear power Nuclear follows daily minimum Diurnal variations –All Ngas –Ngas & hot water storage Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative Page 14 Nuclear model Nuclear on system cost/performance Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014

15. Comparison with Budischak Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative Page 15 Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014

16. Retail electricity prices MD at 8% renewables, mostly hydro pays 11 cts/kWh Germany with 25% renewables pays 36 cts/kWh Something is missing! Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative Page 16 Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014

17. Conclusions Focus on –Ultimate goals –Complete systems To do –Transmission upgrades internal to the system –Congestion induced curtailment –Multiple years –Multiple regions –Storage parameter variation –Add solar PV –EIA cost refinement Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative Page 17

18. Join the Hangout alex@pavlak.net Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; alex@pavlak.net; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative Page 18