1. The end of utilities and networks – a distributed energy future? Prof Ray Wills Managing Director Future Smart Strategies Leader Western Australia Blue Australasia Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia Deputy Chair, and Chief Adviser Sustainable Energy Association of Australia @ProfRayWills

2. Adoption rate of technology What do markets tell us about how quickly disruptive technologies will impact on our businesses? Natural rate of turnover and retirement in commodities. But, adoption of new technology is often not just ‘natural’ Transitions to new technology will be more rapid where changes are favoured by:  consumer sentiment;  policy measures and regulation;  pricing advantage. Be ready to adopt and adapt to new paradigms. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. (Niels Bohr)

3. Roger’s diffusion curve

4. Wake up and smell the roses Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs? (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet Landline -> mobile -> smartphone (BlackBerry) Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store) VHS/Beta -> DVD -> BlueRay Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon) Retail shop-> Boutique-> chain/mega -> Internet Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> wind -> solar

5. Technology adoption rates – US Will solar panels be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??) NY Times

6. The Big Bang Theory NY Times

7. Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

8. Technology adoption - manufacturers Zoepf 2011

9. Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

10. Technology adoption rates

14. Technology energy use www.epri.com Televisions Laptop Tablet Computer

15. Electricity generation - Australia

16. Renewable energy growth Data IEA

17. Potential EV growth

18. Global renewables 2014 +>

19. Electricity market projections – WA

20. Global renewables 2014 +>

21. Forecasts not based on experience Ric Brazzale, May 2013, based on BREE data

22. Trends in car prices and CO2 2002-2010 How clean are Europe’s cars?

23. Declining price on solar

25. Global renewables

27. Global energy – fossil and renewables

28. Global energy – impact on emissions

29. US energy sources changing

30. Solar on Australian homes 1.2 million solar installs in Australia, total 3.3 GW of capacity; output estimated 4500 GWh of electricity in the 12 months to March 2014. WA – 155,000 rooftops with solar, a total of 364MW of solar capacity Mandurah (postcode 6210) – over 7500 homes, 15 MW of capacity

31. Solar in Western Australian towns 

32. Solar and the utility duck

34. Solving energy poverty

35. Evolving markets

36. Global renewables 2014 +>

37. Solar and storage fight energy poverty Developing nations can meet modest domestic power needs with solar. Means storage is already economically affordable.

38. @ProfRayWills

40. The cost of electricity stacks up WA Price Stack (Western Power)

41. VoteCompass Sep 2013 pre Australia Federal Election – 1.4 million responses

45. Efficiency in transport Energy storage key New tech may be disruptive Rapid change - mobility

46. Electric mass transit Siemens Bordeaux light rail Hybrid battery-electric Bombardier wireless battery-electric Bombardier Slim Ride Series 700 Shinkansen

47. Commercial vehicles Smith Newton electric truck Diesel Electric hybrids Honda prime mover Volvo Hybrid - Veolia London Bus - diesel hybrid, and electric CAT Haul Pak + Earthmover Oshkosh Military Vehicle

48. Flying and floating fuels 25 Feb 08 - Virgin Atlantic 1 st biofuel flight (BTW - 1 st USAF 30 Oct 07) (Also BTW 14 Feb 11 - QANTAS) 13 Sep 11 – US Navy announces Green Strike Group, powered by renewable diesel-electric engines, nuclear power and aviation biofuels operating independent of fossil fuel supply line threat or disruption And other diesel electric drives - MAN diesel

49. Smart grids devices and buildings – and microgrids… Integrated energy planning smart devices (not grids) to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators Distributed generation changes utility paradigm

50. Green cities consuming less energy Global  Tianjin Eco-City China  Ulsan Ecocity Korea  Masdar City UAE Australia  City of Sydney – 70% CO2 reduction by 2030  City of Melbourne  City of Townsville  City of Fremantle Local government critical  Nimble government  Community demand

51. Increasing pace of technology adoption Big decrease in developmental lag Innovation/development of new products Supply side capabilities Market competition Growing consumer expectations Higher level of communication between consumers - blogspace CSR, reputation and CFOs Regulation Energy just a commodity