1. © Crown copyright Met Office WGNE activities and plans Andy Brown and Christian Jakob WGNE co-chairs

2. © Crown copyright Met Office Liaison

3. © Crown copyright Met Office WWRP: YOTC/MJO, grey-zone project with Mesoscale WG, Joint Working Group on Verification, Polar and subseasonal-seasonal projects THORPEX: PDP workshops, DAOS WGCM : Transpose-AMIP, metrics, model errors GEWEX (GASS(GCSS, GABLS), GLASS): MJO, grey- zone, ideas to develop coupled land surface – boundary layer study SPARC and WGSIP: impact of stratosphere on NWP? Operational centre reports and progress reviews

4. © Crown copyright Met Office Co-ordinated experiments and projects

5. © Crown copyright Met Office Transpose-AMIP GOOD PROGRESS SURFA LIMITED PROGRESS Cloudy-radiance DONE Grey-zone GOOD PROGRESS Verification NWP performance (eg TCs, precipitation, issues with verification against analysis) ONGOING Polar (CBS-style; ConcordIASI intercomparsion) NEW Climate metrics GOOD PROGRESS Effects of aerosol on NWP, seasonal REVIEW EVIDENCE NEXT YEAR

6. © Crown copyright Met Office Transpose-AMIP: testing climate models in NWP mode Core experiment is to run 64 hindcasts, each 5 days long, initialised from ECMWF YOTC analysis. Optional experiment to repeat the same set of hindcasts with NASA MERRA re-analysis or own analysis. The hindcasts spread through the annual and diurnal cycles and chosen to tie in with YOTC and coincide with some of the IOPs in: VOCALS (SE Pacific stratocumulus) AMY (Asian monsoon) T-PARC (mid-latitude Pacific)

7. www.transpose-amip.info © Crown copyright Met Office Status of experiments: Expt pledged Expt runData converted Data on ESG EC-Earth (Frank Selten) Awaiting CMIP5 runs IPSL (Sandrine Bony/Solange Fermepin) Technical issues Met Office (Keith Williams) Meteo France (Michel Deque) Awaiting ESG upload MIROC (Masahiro Watanabe) Awaiting ESG upload MPI (Bjorn Stevens) MRI (Tomoaki Ose) Awaiting CMIP5 runs NCAR (David Williamson/Brian Medeiros) Awaiting CMIP5 runs

8. www.transpose-amip.info © Crown copyright Met Office Proposed diagnostic subprojects MJO dynamics in the Transpose-AMIP II hindcasts: (PI: Mitch Moncrieff) Water budget analysis (PI: Gill Martin) Comparison of methodologies (initial tendency using own analysis vs 5-day forecast using alien analysis) (PI: Mark Rodwell) Cloud regimes (PI: Keith Williams) Intense extra-tropical windstorms (PI: Peter Knippertz) Relationship between short and long timescale model errors (PI: Shaocheng Xie) Regional investigation into model tendencies (PI: TBD) VOCALS analysis (PI: TBD) 2009 SE Asian monsoon analysis (PI: TBD) More desirable Real evidence at WGNE of some centres getting real value from examination of errors at different timescales

9. © Crown copyright Met Office SURFA Comparison of NWP surface flux data with observational products Real-time provision of ECMWF and DWD data for several years Within last year, JMA, Meteo- France data added for 2008 and 2009 Ge Peng et al, GRL submitted

10. © Crown copyright Met Office Planned comparison of models with buoy and cruise flux data (Chris Fairall) STRATUS/DART2 buoys, Chilean coast (+ cruise data) NTASN. Atlantic Trade wind (+cruises planned) WHOTSHawaii (+cruises planned) KEOKuroshio Extension PAPANW Pacific How to invigorate / co-ordinate community efforts more widely on use of ocean surface flux data to evaluate models (NWP as well as climate)?

11. © Crown copyright Met Office Grey zone project

12. © Crown copyright Met Office How to parametrize physical processes in the grey-zone (1-10km)? Of interest to Operational mesoscale NWP Many already running at resolutions of a few km but room for more systematic testing to complement existing assessments of parametrization choices? Future global models What to do as global models enter this range? Regional climate models

13. © Crown copyright Met Office Proposed case: cold-air outbreak Designed to be relevant to and to engage as broad a range of communities as possible Mesoscale modellers Global modellers LES/CRM/parametrization development community (GCSS) Case to be run across whole range of resolutions (from convection resolved to fully parametrized) Back diagnose fluxes at different resolutions from high resolution truth Idealized case with periodic boundary conditions Parallel inflow-outflow option for mesoscale models for which the above is difficult

14. © Crown copyright Met Office 1.5 kmGlobal CeresMODIS

15. © Crown copyright Met Office CtrlMod BL Obs Mod BL Ctrl Change to inhibit cumulus convection (in favour of turbulent mixing) when layer above LCL sufficiently sheared

16. © Crown copyright Met Office Effect of mixing change on surface SW bias in climate model NEW-OLD OLD Error map New Error map

17. The impact is more marked at short ranges (12hr vs 48h) Scores wrt own analysis better than wrt independent analysis green : own analysis Pink : ECMWF analysis Blue : radiosondes

18. © Crown copyright Met Office

21. Workshops, publications, meetings

22. © Crown copyright Met Office WGNE-THORPEX PDP Joint expert meeting on Diagnosis of Forecast Errors held in Zurich, July 2010 State of the art models still suffer from substantial errors Diagnostic work (+dynamical expertize) has potential to inform developers at process level to guide development Future activities on application of diagnostic techniques to monsoon problems and cyclonic systems ECMWF/Met Office working together on monsoon and planning to extend invitation, through WGNE, for input from other centres when work sufficiently mature WGNE/PDP/ECMWF workshop on model error, June 2011 Need more fundamental research into stochastic physics and linking of that community to WGNE/GASS projects (e.g. grey zone)

23. © Crown copyright Met Office Other forthcoming meetings Physics of weather/climate models (JPL, Spring 2012) With WWRP, WCRP partners Ocean coupling (Washington, Autumn 2012) Joint workshop with GODAE/OceanView to look at current knowledge of pros/cons of ocean coupling for NWP. Also use of short range coupled model errors to understand longer-range ones Annual WGNE meeting (Toulouse, Autumn 2012) WGNE systematic errors meeting (Exeter, Spring 2013) Annual WGNE meeting (Melbourne, Autumn 2013) Aerosols for NWP?

24. © Crown copyright Met Office Coupled model DJF bias at day 30 GloSea4 seasonal DJF bias Next step: use of short-range coupled model errors to inform climate model development Coupled model DJF bias at day 4

25. © Crown copyright Met Office Summary WGNE hosts a wide range of activities in support of model evaluation and development. Enhanced collaboration with WWRP/THORPEX. Meso-scale group, THORPEX PDP and DAOS, YOTC, JWGV,... Enhanced links within WCRP (SPARC, WGCM, WGSIP) Model and DA development remains at the heart of better forecasts at all ranges and needs to remain a high priority!

26. © Crown copyright Met Office Membership changes New members Julio Bacmeister Saulo Freitas Jean-Noel Thepaut Ayrton Zadra (Ex-officio) WWRP Mesoscale WG Chair (Jeanette Onvlee)

27. © Crown copyright Met Office Questions?