1. Money & Banking - ECO 473 - Dr. D. Foster Interest Rates III: Term Structure

2. Why do Interest Rates differ? Default risk (Il)liquidity risk “Risk premium” = i - i T-Bill where the T-Bill is the riskless rate. How do you distinguish default from liquidity risk?

3. Dealing with Risk Risk is an example of asymmetric information, where bond rating services are the market solution for this problem.

4. Case: GM Bond Rating

8. Quick Hits Fisher equation: i = r +  e Market for LF determines r. “r” is ex ante – before the fact.  e can be based on adaptive/rational expectations. Adjusting for risk premiums, i still differs … by maturities; aka “term structure of interest rates.” a positive “term premium”  normal yield curve. a negative “term premium”  inverted yield curve.

9. Term Structure of Interest Rates

10. Causes of the term structure Segmented markets Different terms are not good substitutes. Expectations If we expect r to rise, longer-term bonds will earn a higher interest rate. Preferred habitat Longer terms require a premium... usually. [Unanticipated] Inflation premium (  ua )...

11. Unanticipated Inflation Premium Consider a 1 yr. bond and a perpetuity The bond has a face value of $1000 and has a $50 coupon. In one year the bond holder will be able to redeem the total, $1050. The perpetuity redeems $50 per year forever. Bond $1000 $50 Perpetuity

12. Unanticipated Inflation Premium Assume that the current market (nominal) rate of interest for these instruments is 5% and that the inflation rate ( π ) is 2%. We can easily calculate the price of each financial instrument: Bond $1000 $50 Perpetuity Bond price = $1050/1.05 = $1000 Perpetuity price = $5/.05 = $1000

13. Unanticipated Inflation Premium What happens to prices if actual inflation, , (say tomorrow) rises to 4%? $98.13 The bond price will fall to $105/1.07 = $98.13 $71.43 The perpetuity price falls to $5/.07 = $71.43 So, we can interpret the “normal” yield curve with respect to unanticipated inflation (  ua ). Longer terms command higher yields to account for this outcome.

14. Money & Banking - ECO 473 - Dr. D. Foster Interest Rates III: Term Structure