1. Jürgen Lefevere Policy Coordinator – International Climate Change DG Environment European Commission Brussels The Road to Bali: An analysis of the Vienna Climate Talks

2. Convention (COP) Kyoto Protocol (CMP) MayAugustDecember IPCC AR4 AWG (Art. 3.9) Convention Dialogue: Advancing development goals Addressing action on adaptation Realising full pot. of technology Realising full pot. of market-based opportunities Report to COP-13 4 th Session 4 th Workshop Review of the Kyoto Protocol (Art.9) Russian Proposal Deforestation (SBSTA) Technology (SBSTA) Adaptation (SBSTA & SBI) Vienna& its context BALI

3. The AWG (I) l Agenda: m Analysis of mitigation potentials & identification of ranges of emission reduction objectives of Annex I Parties l Result: m Recognition IPCC lowest stabilisation scenario requires GHG emissions to peak in the next 10-15 yrs and reduced to well below half of 2000 levels by 2050 m Lowest IPCC scenario requires Annex I to reduce emissions in a range of 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020 m To be continued…

4. The AWG (II) l Key issues: m EU advocated strong reference to global emission reduction objectives and Annex I contributions thereto m Japan, Canada, Russia not ready to be drawn into concrete discussion on mitigation potentials and reduction ranges m AOSIS concerned with impacts lowest IPCC ranges m Saudi Arabia insisted on analysis “spillover effects” m India insisted on domestic reductions & life-style changes Annex I: relation between reduction ranges and flexible mechanisms?

5. The Convention Dialogue (I) l Agenda: m Building blocks of a post-2012 agreement m “analysis of existing and potential investment and financial flows relevant to the development of an effective and appropriate international response to climate change” l Result: m Report co-facilitators to COP-13 in Bali m Finance ministers meeting 11 December?

6. The Convention Dialogue (II) l Key issues: m UNFCCC report: r Finance and investment challenge is “doable” r Redirect finance flows, need for new finance r Important role carbon market, but depends on ambition post- 2012 agreement r Finance ministers 11 Dec? m The Bali Roadmap? r No negotiations: China, India, Saudi Arabia, South Korea r New dialogue/agenda item/new ad-hoc group/merge with AWG r “unintended consequences”

7. The Global Carbon Market: Transfer of Emission credits (1)

8. The Global Carbon Market: Transfer of Emission credits (2) € 25 billion/yr decarbonise DC energy investments € 33 billion/yr energy access poor UNFCCC: Mitigation: 200-210 bUS$/yr (NAI 46%) Carbon market: 5-100 bUS$/yr

9. Co-facilitators’ “building blocks” Adaptation Mitigation Investment and Finance Sustainable development Global Action

10. Russian Proposal MayAugustDecember Convention (COP) Kyoto Protocol (CMP) IPCC AR4 Convention Dialogue: Advancing development goals Addressing action on adaptation Realising full pot. of technology Realising full pot. of market-based opportunities 4 th Workshop Report to COP-13 Deforestation (SBSTA) Technology Transfer (SBSTA) Adaptation (SBSTA & SBI) AWG (Art. 3.9) 4 th Session Review of the Kyoto Protocol Bali Roadmap Ambition/objective “principles” Platform & process Timeline Recognition of action Deforestation Technology Adaptation Finance & investment Russian Proposal? Commitments AI KP Russian Proposal? Incentives for action Bunker fuels ? ? The Bali “roadmap”

11. The Road to Bali l 9-11 September: Gleneagles Dialogue (Berlin, Germany) l 24 September: High Level Meeting on Climate Change, UN Secretary General Initiative (New York) l 27-28 September: US Major Economies Initiative (Washington DC) l 24-25 October: Informal ministerial meeting (Bogor, Indonesia) l 31 October: Third UNFCCC workshop on Finance and Investment to address climate change l 12-16 November: IPCC adoption of Synthesis Report (Valencia, Spain) l 10 December: Trade Ministers Meeting (Bali) l 11 December: Finance Ministers Meeting (Bali) l 3-14 December: UN Climate Negotiations (Bali)