1. Housing and Economic Outlook National Association of Local Housing Finance Agencies April 26, 2012 David Crowe Chief Economist

2. Builder Sentiment Up since September 2011 NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index

3. NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index

4. Quarterly Data Message

5. Total Payroll Employment

6. Unemployment Rate

7. Total Personal Income Feb ‘12 = 2.6%

8. Real Gross Domestic Product

9. Consumer Confidence Index

10. Single-family Building Permits

11. Multifamily Building Permits

12. Underlying Fundamentals

13. Number of Households Percentage Change (million households) 1 to 2 million gap Household Shortfall Demographic Trends Are Positive

14. Housing Fundamentals Remain Good Mortgage Rates

15. House Prices At Long-term Ratio House Price-to-Income Ratio

16. Markets Are Local

17. Seriously Delinquent Loans Trending Lower Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, % of all loans

18. But Delinquency Inventory Varies by State Foreclosure inventory plus 90-day+ delinquencies U.S. = 8.4 months Foreclosure inventory plus 90-day+ delinquencies month’s supply at annual sales rate

19. Increase in Employment Greater Than National Average Change in Employment Below U.S. average 0.6% to < 0.9% 0.9% to < 1.3% 1.3% to < 1.8% 1.8% or greater

20. Increase in Building Permits Greater Than National Average Change in Building permits Below U.S. average 6.7% to < 11.7% 11.7% to < 18.3% 18.3% to < 31.2% 31.2% or greater

21. Change in House Prices Relative to U.S. Change in House prices Below U.S. average -4.2% to < -2.8% -2.8% to < -1.7% -1.7% to < -0.6% -0.6% and greater

22. NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index – The Number of Markets is Improving

23. ARLittle RockFLTampaMDCumberlandNCCharlotteOHSpringfieldTXCollege Station CAFresnoGARomeHagerstownGoldsboroOKTulsaDallas CAMercedIAAmesMELewistonGreensboroORCorvallisLaredo COBoulderDes MoinesMIDetroitGreenvilleORPortlandLongview DenverDubuqueFlintRocky MountPAAltoonaMcAllen Fort CollinsIowa CityGrand RapidsWinston-SalemErieMidland GreeleySioux CityLansingNDBismarckLancasterOdessa CTNew HavenWaterlooMonroeFargoPittsburghSan Antonio DCWashingtonIDBoise CityMuskegonGrand ForksWilliamsportTyler FLCape CoralCoeur d’AleneSaginawNELincolnSCCharlestonVictoria CrestviewINElkhartMNMinneapolisNJOcean CitySpartanburgUTProvo DeltonaEvansvilleMOColumbiaNYBuffaloSDSioux FallsSt. George JacksonvilleIndianapolisJefferson CityGlens FallsTNChattanoogaVTBurlington North PortLafayetteJoplinRochesterKingsportWVHuntington OrlandoKYLouisvilleKansas CityUticaNashvilleWYCasper Panama CityLALake CharlesMSJacksonOHColumbusTXAmarilloCheyenne Punta GordaMonroeNCBurlingtonDaytonBrownsville 101 Improving Metropolitan Areas

24. Improving Markets 101 Improving Metropolitan Areas

25. Forecast

26. Real GDP Growth – Hesitated but Improving

27. Sales Dipped, But Due to Recover New and Existing Single-Family Home Sales

28. Single-Family Starts – Waiting for Job Recovery Trough to Current: Mar 09 = 353,000 Mar 12 = 462,000 +31% 1995-2003 1,256,000 2010 471,000 2011 433,000-8% 2012506,00017% 2013660,00030%

29. Multifamily Housing Starts Healthy Response from Growth in Renters Trough to Current: 4 th Q 09 = 82,000 1 st Q 12 = 192,000 134% 1995-2003 331,000 2010 114,000 2011 177,00055% 2012 216,00022% 2013 235,0009%

30. Residential Remodeling – Continuous Improvement Owner-Occupied Improvements Billions 2005 $, SAAR Source: U.S. Census Bureau, NAHB Economic and Housing Forecast.

31. Long Road Back to Normal* for Single-Family Housing Starts – Q4 2013 * Normal is the average from Q1 2000 to Q4 2003 * Normal Production is measured as Single- Family housing starts between Q1 2000 and Q4 2003 Single-Family Housing Starts Relative to Normal Less than 45% 45% to 49% 49% to 61% 61% to 70% Greater than 70%

32. Questions? Answers: www.housingeconomics.com eyeonhousing.wordpress.com