1. Flood Loss Assessment APFM methodology
Regional Programme on Disaster Risk Reduction in South East Europe
Training workshop on flood risk assessment
27 September – 1 October 2010
Istanbul, Turkey
Flood Loss Assessment APFM methodology
Tommaso Abrate
Climate and water Department
World meteorologicalorganization

2. Purposes of an economic assessment
Assess the overall deviation of economic activities from the “normal” course as a result of the flood

3. Why an economic assessment?
Assessing net benefits derived from using a flood plain
Design of appropriate policies and strategies
Reconstruction planning
Rescue and emergency coordination

4. Various phases of flood assessment
Flood risk assessment and policy reform
In-depth evaluation
Early recovery assessment
Rapid assessment
Time
Event

5. Types of floods
Flash floods
Riverine flooding

6. Sorces of flood losses data
Actual data collected from historical events
Direct measurements
Water marks, witnesses, etc
Potential losses based on stage – damage relationships

7. Main impact factors Depth of inundation
Flow velocity (esp. flash floods)
Duration of the inundation
Timing
Sediment and pollution load

8. Stage – damage curve for content and structural damages

9. Velocity and depth relation as a damage factor

10. Simulated dyke break: depth

11. Terminology
Damages: related to the physical damage of public and private assets (infrastructures, houses, vehicle, etc.) caused by the contact with water
Losses: broader meaning, including secondary and tertiary losses, including intangible ones (human lives) and “things that could have been”

12. Terminology (ctd) Direct losses Indirect losses Tangible losses
Intangible losses

13. Flood losses Tangible direct losses Tangible indirect losses
Intangible losses
Damages to:
Buildings
Content of building
Infrastructures (road, bridges)
Crops and animals
Loss and disruption of:
Agricultural production
Industrial production
Communication
Health and education
Utility supplies (électricity, gas)
Loss of life
Physical injuries
Loss of heritage sites
Primary
Stress, Physical and psychological trauma
Water borne diseases
Increased mortality
Secondary
Salinization
Black out
Fire
Loss of added value
Contamination of water supply
Traffic congestion
Food shortages
Loss of income
Homelessness
Loss of livelihoods
Permament loss of unisured possesion
Braking of community ties due to displacement or risettlements
Enhanced rate of property decay
Long term structural damages
Some business are bankrupt
Reduce GDP
Tertiary
(long term)

14. Actual vs potential losses

15. Rapid assessment during flooding
Objectives:
Collect factual information for emergency response and management
Identifying the administrative level concerned (local, national, international)
Limited time availability, evolving situation
Casualties, displaced people
Inundation map
Flooded assets
Expected evolution of the event
Assets at risk
Status of lifelines (access roads, hospitals, electricity, water and food supply, etc.)

16. Early recovery assessment
Purpose:
guiding the recovery process and it priorities
designing financial mechanisms
Evaluation of coping capacity
Identification of management mistakes
Focus on tangible and direct losses and on actual costs and damages

17. Early recovery assessment (ctd)
Public and private losses
Who's bearing the losses?
Magnitude with respect to coping capacity,locally and nationally
Social aspects of the losses

18. In-depth assessment

19. Annual flood losses

20. Disaggregation of losses by sector

21. Conclusions Collect data before the flood event
Involve local communities
There is not a universal formula for all contexts
Develop an agreed procedure
Collect data on losses and on who has to bear them
Compare losses and benefits
Institutional framework for data collection