1. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Flood Risk Assessment: Understanding Vulnerability Dr. Carlos Villacis GRIP Coordinator

2. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Session Outline Understanding the Concept of Vulnerability Developing Vulnerability and Recovery Functions Mapping the Vulnerability for floods

3. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 What is Vulnerability? - Concept - Typology - Conceptual Models

4. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 What is Vulnerability? Vulnerability= Degree or extent of potential damage or loss Vulnerability= Degree or extent of potential damage or loss Vulnerability = attribute or characteristics of Being resistant to a hazard Vulnerability = attribute or characteristics of Being resistant to a hazard Vulnerability = Threat Vulnerability = Ability or capability to anticipate, cope with, resist, recover from the impacts of a natural hazard Vulnerability = Ability or capability to anticipate, cope with, resist, recover from the impacts of a natural hazard Vulnerability = exposure Vulnerability = Conditions or situation with increase the susceptibility of a system Vulnerability = Conditions or situation with increase the susceptibility of a system

5. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Issues with the use of Vulnerability The term Vulnerability is now used in such a loose and widespread manner that it is in danger of becoming as useless as the termSustainability, and so some precision is needed to rescue it. (T. Cannon, 2006)

6. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Vulnerability Definition: It is the susceptibility of damage for a given level of hazard severity Types: there are 2 types, –System vulnerability (city, sector, economy) –Element vulnerability (building, person, infrastructure)

7. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010

8. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 What is Element Vulnerability? Element Vulnerability refers to the degree of potential physical damage to the target elements at risk, such as a buildings, facilities, infrastructure, and lifelines in response to a hazard event of a given intensity.

9. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Early Warning on Damage

10. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Vulnerability Functions Vulnerability curves for typical Costa Rican building types (Sauter and Shah, 1978)

11. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 What is System Vulnerability? System Vulnerability refers to the conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of an anthropogenic system to the effect of hazards. System Vulnerability is defined by the systems –susceptibility –coping capacity –resilience

12. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Measurement of System Vulnerability

13. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 System Vulnerability: DM Perspective

14. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Dimensions of Disaster

15. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010

16. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Developing Vulnerability and Recovery Functions

17. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 How to develop vulnerability functions Analytical models –selection and determination of crucial variables and parameters Experimental models –expensive and limited in scope Compilation and analysis of past losses

18. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Characterizing the hazard Flood impact factors –Water height –Water speed –Sediment and debris contents –Duration

19. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 National Network of Observers Local authorities Sectors Civil society Strong institutional coordination

20. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Most disaster prone districts The Districts of Kalutara, Ratnapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura

21. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Detection of anomalies in risk models

22. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Historic analysis of loss ratio DR01 Cotton Corn DR01 Rice DR02 DR03 Cotton Corn Rice Cotton Corn Rice

23. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Vulnerability Functions MMI Intensity DR (%) IVVVIVIIVIII 20 40 60 80 100 IVVVIVIIVIII 20 40 60 80 100

24. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Vulnerability Functions: Flood

25. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 National Disaster Observatories Existing (run by Governments, GRIP or Partners) Proposed or underway (countries implementing, interested or having Disaster Database) Asia Sri Lanka, Tamil Nadu, Orissa, Indonesia, Iran, Maldives, Thailand, Nepal LAC Mexico, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Venezuela, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Panama Asia Armenia, Afghanistan, Bhutan, Cambodia, Laos, PNG*, Vietnam* Africa Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar LAC Nicaragua*, Guatemala*, Honduras*, Jamaica*, Cuba, Trinidad and Tobago*, Guyana*, Antigua & Barbuda, Uruguay, Organization of Eastern Caribbean States * Have national disaster databases Africa Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar

26. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Recovery Functions Damage functions for Water Treatment Plants (ATC-25) Recovery functions for Water Treatment Plants (ATC-25)

27. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Understanding recovery Water supply recovery Impact on life Impact on agriculture Impact on production Impact on employment Impact on social stability

28. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Differences in Damage, Loss, Impact Ecuadorian Oil pipeline – 1987 Earthquake Damage to the oil pipe Environmental Impact Physical Damage = 60 km Pipeline, $$? Functioning Loss = 6 months no oil export ==70% annual revenue, $$$? Macro-Impact = 5 year economic recession, $$$$$$?

29. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 How to Characterize HS? Important Sectors Dependent Sectors Priorities for recovery coordination for recovery

30. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Before Nargis After Nargis From Loss assessment to needs assessment Shift in Agriculture as Income Source Change in percentage of population for which agriculture is a main source of income: Decrease in agriculture as main source from 34% to 22% of population Decrease in Fisheries from 16% to 8% Shift to other sources of income (from 10% to 29%) Source: Village Tract Assessment (VTA) component of the PONJA (Post Nargis Joint Assessment) project developed jointly by the ASEAN, the Government of Myanmar, and the UN.

31. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Summary Vulnerability functions are created to calculate potential damage or loss to a given element at risk against a specified event intensity. System vulnerability provides a framework for identifying the social, economic, and environmental causes of disaster impacts. It directs attention to the underlying causes of vulnerability rather than to its result, the negative impacts.

32. GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, info@gripweb.org, www.gripweb.org Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Any Questions?