1. U.S. IOOS & the Ocean.US Modeling Initiative Background & the Mission of Ocean.US IOOS Conceptual Design Status of Implementation Ocean.US Modeling Initiative NOAA Navy NSF EPA NASA USACE USGS USCG MMS DOE

2. GOOS IOOS IEOS GEOSS 2 Welcome to the Acronym Jungle

3. 1998 Congress Called for Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Routinely Provide Data/Info Required for More Rapid Detection & Timely Prediction of State Changes Improve the safety & efficiency of marine operations Improve national/homeland security Improve forecasts of natural hazards and mitigate their effects more effectively Improve predictions of climate change & their effects Minimize public health risks Protect & restore healthy coastal marine & estuarine ecosystems more effectively Sustain living marine resources 1 System, 7 Societal Goals 3

4. 2004 U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy Implement an Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS)  Make more effective use of existing resources  Enhance operational capabilities over time to address 7 societal goals Ecosystem – Based Management Strengthen Regional Approach  As a means of implementing ecosystem–based management 4

5. Ocean.US The National Office for Integrated & Sustained Ocean Observations Established in 2000 by NOPP to  Prepare & maintain IOOS Development Plans based on data requirements of user groups,  Coordinate integration of IOOS elements, including harmonizing regional & national development of the system, &  Function as the focal point for national & international development of ocean observing systems. Ocean.US Leadership  Current Director: Mary Altalo (1 January, 2006)  Past Directors: David Martin, Eric Lindstrom, Tom Malone www.ocean.us 5

6. “Airlie House” Workshop March 2002 IOOS Design Principles Priority Products & Services for each of the 7 Societal Goals IOOS Conceptual Design Began Process of  Specifying observing system requirements DMAC the Highest Priority Estimated New Funding for Implementation  $138 M Yr 1  $500 M Yr 5 6

7. IOOS Design Principles Provide data & information needed to address all 7 societal goals by implementing & sustaining an IOOS that is  Responsive to the needs of decision makers,  End – to – End  Multi–scale, Multidisciplinary & Multipurpose Serve data & information at rates & in forms required by decision makers in each of the 7 societal benefit areas. Make more effective use of existing assets to  Efficiently link observations & modeling through  Integrated data management & communications Build on, improve & enhance existing capabilities over time Enable users from both private & public sectors to contribute to & benefit from IOOS data & information Adopt & implement national standards & protocols for  Measurements & data telemetry,  Data management & communications, &  Modeling & analysis Implement performance measures for all of the above 7

8. Satellites Aircraft Fixed Platforms Ships Drifters & Floats AUVs Metadata standards Data discovery Data transport Online browse Data archival Climate Natural Hazards Security Public Health Ecosystem Health Resources Decision Support Tools Currents & Waves Water level Coastal inundation Waterborne pathogens Population Dynamics Ecosystem Dynamics IOOS is an “End–to–End” System Efficiently Link 3 Subsystems Observing – Data Telemetry Integrated DMAC Modeling Analysis 8 Marine Services

9. Observing & Data Telemetry Subsystem Multi–Scale System Resolution Low High C Cal Caribb MAB GLs NE SE Go Mex S Cal Pac NW Ak Coastal Ocean Component National Backbone Regional Observing Systems 9 Global Ocean Component

10. Coastal Component of the IOOS Operated by  NOPP Agencies  RAs EEZ & Great Lakes Core variables  Required by regions Networks  Sentinel stations  Reference stations Standards/Protocols  QAQC, DMAC  Products Based on data & info requirements of users Regional Associations  Design & Manage   Resolution   Variables Estuaries, Great Lakes, EEZ Incorporate  Subregional systems  Elements thereof Regional COOS’s National Backbone

11. 11 www.ocean.us First Development Plan Completed by Ocean.US December 2004 Approved at Cabinet level by the Interagency Committee on Ocean Science & Resource Management (ICOSRMI) January 2006

12. DMAC Plan Completed & Approved in 2005 Provides a Road Map for Implementing Interoperable Mechanisms that Enable  Rapid access to diverse data  From many sources With the completion of the DMAC plan, Ocean.US is turning its attention to  The Modeling & Analysis Subsystem 12

13. The 1 st IOOS Development Plan calls for a modeling effort that will Improve, develop, test & validate operational models for all seven societal goals; Produce more accurate & comprehensive estimates of current states of the marine environment, ecosystems & living resources; Improve, develop & apply data assimilation techniques to initialize & update models for more accurate forecasts of state changes; & Optimize the observing subsystem to achieve these objectives The broad objective is to tune the delivery of model-derived products to the time-space scales on which decisions need to be made to achieve the societal goals. 13

14. Next steps Promote synergy  between research & operational modeling activities Promote improvements  in existing operational models Enable development of operational modeling capabilities  in goal areas where none now exist Engage Federal Agencies, RAs & other stakeholders  in the design & implementation of the modeling & analysis subsystem of IOOS Establish a Modeling & Analysis Steering Team (MAST) to Address these Objecives 14

15. MAST Members Chairman: Chris Mooers Co – Chairs: C.J. Beegle – Krause & Frank Aikman Climate & Marine Meteorology  Michele Reinecker (NASA)  Steve Payne (Navy)  Fred Toepfer (NOAA) Coastal Circulation, Inundation & Waves  Frank Bub (Navy)  Dale Crockett (TX WDB)  Eoin Howlett (ASA)  Richard Luettich (UNC)  John Harding (Navy) Watershed Hydrology  Richard Alexander (USGS) Biogeochemistry  Jorge Sarmiento (Princeton) Ecosystem Dynamics Fisheries & Water Quality  Carl Cerco (USACE)  John Wilkin (Rutgers)  Eileen Hofmann (ODU)  Anne Hollowed (NOAA) 15

16. Mission of MAST Enhance collaboration between operational & research modeling groups Establish & maintain an inventory of operational & research modeling capabilities relevant to addressing the 7 societal benefits Assess performance & skill of existing & emerging operational capabilities in terms of user needs & recommend improvement Develop community consensus for a research agenda that will help improve operational modeling capabilities Facilitate transitions of models & model improvements from research to operational use Assess & recommend improvements to the observing & DMAC subsystems through the use of test beds & OSSEs/OSEs Explore the use & efficacy of Community Modeling Networks as a mechanism for achieving these objectives Work with the NOPP, Federal Agencies & other groups as appropriate to attract the required funding Prepare a 5 – Year Strategic Plan with a Prioritized Action Plan & Budget to Achieve The Following Objectives: 16

17. IOOS Community Modeling Workshop 28 – 29 November 2006 Objectives  Review present status of operational global & coastal models  Identify R&D needed to advance operational modeling for all 7 societal goals  Provide guidance for preparing the MAST Strategic Plan  Provide guidance for the MAST CY 07 Action Plan Deliverables  Annotated outline of the MAST Strategic Plan  Recommend short– & long–term priorities for MAST activities  Workshop Proceedings 17

18. RCOOS/ORION Science and Technology Workshop 2007 Organizing Committee  Physical Oceanography, Chris Mooers/RSMAS (SEACOOS/MAST)  Marine Biogeochemistry, Rick Jahnke/SKIO (SEACOOS/ORION)  Marine Ecology, Mark Moline/CalPoly (CENCOOS & SCCOOS/ALPS) Issues  Developing the network of sustained observations needed to meet data requirements of models for all 7 societal goals  Building scientifically sound operational IOOS capabilities Participants  3 experts from each RA  Coastal physical oceanographer or meteorologist, biogeochemist, & marine ecologis  Representatives from DMAC, MAST & ORION Tentative Objectives: Consensus on  The scientific questions that need to be answered to enable credible & periodic estimates of the State of the Coastal Ocean regionally?  The critical missing observational & modeling capabilities & priorities for filling them?  How RAs/RCOOSs & ORION/OOI can best collaborate to enable synergy between IOOS & major ocean research programs 18

19. THANK YOU

20. Societal Goals & Example Products Used to Determine Observing System Requirements Climate Prediction  Annual estimates of regional–global sea level changes w/ error bars  Annual quantitative assessments of the impact of global warming on the frequency & magnitude of tropical & extra–tropical stomrs Maritime Operations & National/Homeland Security  Hourly mesoscale nowcasts & 72 hr forecasts of water levels & 3–D current, temperature & salinity fields  Hourly mesoscale nowcasts & 72 hr forecasts of sea surface vector wind & wave fields & surf conditions Natural Hazards  Hourly 72 hr forecasts of the time–space extent of coastal flooding caused by tsunamis, tropical storms & extratropical storms  Annual assessments of changes in resilience of coastal populations & infrastructure to coastal flooding Public Health  Hourly nowcasts & 72 hr forecasts of plumes from large permitted dischargers  Hourly 72 hr forecasts of impacts of HABs on coastal habitats, living marine resources & human health Ecosystem Health  Annual quantitative assessments of the condition of coastal ecosystems in terms of (i) habitat & species diversity; (ii) water quality; & (iii) near shore bathymetry–topography  Annual assessments of the effects of global warming on the condition of coastal ecosystems as quantified above Living Marine Resources  Annual estimates of recruitment rates for exploitable fish stocks w/ error bars  Annual assessments of the efficacy of Marine Protected Areas in terms of the extent & condition of habitats & the abundance & distribution of living resources 20

21. Existing Operational Capabilities Marine Weather Marine Ops Hurricanes Ecosystem – Based Management Investments in R & D Operational Capabilities Operational Status High Operational Status Low Public Health Water Quality 21

22. Informed Decisions Design of an End– to– End System 7 IOOS Societal Goals Analysis & Modeling DMAC Observations & Data Telemetry Research & Development Improve Operational Capabilities Enable Science Coordinated Development of an Integrated System Research Priorities Users Requirements Ocean.US & RAa Plan & Coordinate Federal Agencies & RAs Implement Data & Information IOOS 22

23. Committee on Ocean Policy Chair CEQ (Cabinet Level) Interagency Committee on Ocean Science & Resource Management Integration (ICOSRMI) Co-Chairs: OSTP & CEQ JSOSTSIMOR ORRAP NSC PCC Global Environment Ocean.USNFRA IWGOO 23 President’s Ocean Action Plan

24. Observing Requirements: Remote Sensing Sustain & Improve Satellite Time-Series  Surface winds, temperature, waves, currents  Sea surface height  Ocean color

25. ~ 50 % Implemented Global Coastal