1. Lessons from the Southern African Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)
Eugene Poolman
South African Weather Service
Pretoria, South Africa
Peter Chen
Chief, Data Processing and Forecasting Division
World Meteorological Organization
Geneva, Switzerland
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium
Monterey, California
14 – 18 September 2009

2. Concepts of SWFDP

3. The Challenge: mitigating the growing technological gap in weather forecasting
Dramatic developments in weather forecasting science over the past two decades – advances in monitoring and NWP and Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS),
leading to improved alerting of weather hazards, at increased lead-times of warnings
Developing countries, LDCs, saw little progress due to limited budgets, failing infrastructure, inadequate guidance and expertise,
increasing gap in application of advanced technology (NWP, EPS) in early warnings
WMO SWFDP attempts to close this gap by increasing availability, and developing capacity to use existing NWP and EPS in countries where it is not effectively used ?

4. WMO Project: SWFDP
WMO developed the SWFDP to improve severe weather forecasting and warning services in NMHSs where sophisticated NWP/EPS outputs are not currently used
First SWFDP regional project in Southern Africa, Nov 2006 to Nov 2007
Principal focus: heavy rain and strong winds
RSMC Pretoria SWF Daily Guidance Product (7 Jan. 2007)

5. SWFDP MAIN GOALS CBS-XIII (2005)
To improve ability of NMHSs to forecast severe weather events
To improve lead-time of alerting of these events
To improve interaction of NMHSs with DMCPAs before and during events
To identify gaps and areas for improvement
To improve the skill of products from GDPFS Centres through feedback from NMHSs
DMCPA – disaster management and civil protection authority
GDPFS – Global Data Processing and Forecasting System (WMO)

6. First SWFDP project
The NMHSs of: Botswana, Madagascar, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe
The regional centres: RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion
Global products centres: ECMWF, Met Office UK, and NCEP USA
Regional project management structure:
Regional subproject management team, with PRs/Directors designated members and Terms of Reference
WMO support (CBS and Secretariat)
Regional interest: SADC and MASA
preparatory and annual training workshops conducted for forecasters

7. SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process
Cascading Process throughout Southern Africa:
Global NWP centres to provide available NWP and EPS products, including in the form of probabilities;
Regional centres to interpret information received from global NWP centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs;
NMCs to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; to liaise with Disaster Management, and to contribute feedback and evaluation of the project;
NMCs have access to all products, and maintained responsibility and authority over national warnings and services.
Global Centers
RSMC Pretoria
NMCs
Disaster Management Centres

8. NMCs of all Southern African
SWFDP flows
Regional:
RSMC Pretoria
- 5-day guidance daily
12-km UM LAM (SA12)
Additional MSG products
Global:
NOAA, ECMWF,
Met Office
NWP products
EPS products
SWFDP Web Portal
National:
NMCs of all Southern African
countries
Improved forecasting
5 day lead-time on warnings when needed
Improved coordination with disaster management
Feedback on NWP, EPS, RSMC guidance

9. Examples of EPS products from global centres

10. Testing the Impact: Tropical Cyclone Favio
“Public Benefits of SWFDP in south-eastern Africa”, E. Poolman, H. Chickoore, F.Lucio, WMO MeteoWorld, Dec. 2008)

11. Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Favio
TC Favio caused widespread damage over Mozambique and Zimbabwe from Feb 2007
It provided the opportunity to test the SWFDP cascading process
It contributed to the lessons learned in the demonstration period

13. Impact of TC Favio The model guidance correctly
indicated landfall 5 days in advance:
location, and movement towards Zimbabwe
Both Mozambique and Zimbabwe’s NMCs issued
warnings 5 days in advance to disaster management departments
Mozambique:
Provinces were put on alert levels 2 to 3 days in advance
The public responded well and major loss of life was prevented – 9 deaths
Zimbabwe:
Public received early warnings by radio, TV and newspapers 5 days in advance
BUT… the public did not react until the first heavy downpours

14. Lessons from SWFDP

15. Usefulness of NWP and EPS
NWP generally useful, higher resolution UM SA12 proved to be very useful
For all five NMHSs this was their first time working with EPS products operationally
EPS products were very useful and aided to:
Extend the lead-time of forecasts and warnings
Increased forecaster confidence on all forecasts
Challenges in the tropical regions particularly
NWP struggle to predict localized, sudden on-set severe convection and strong winds
NWP and EPS are not giving good guidance on organized convection in the tropical areas a few days in advance
Question: which are the best parameters in EPS products to identify possible organized severe tropical convection?

16. Results from Demonstration Phase
Overall: the five NMHSs confirmed that the new approach is demonstrating significant benefits and improved early warnings
SWFDP was a successful demonstration how developing countries can be assisted to reduce the technology gap in weather forecasting to support operational severe weather forecasting and warning services
Southern African countries at WMO Congress (2007) highlighted:
Successful recipe demonstrating real benefit to developing countries
High impact, low cost, with visible operational results
Appreciation for contributing centres of the GDPFS
SWFDP provides a practical and beneficial operational platform for preparation and dissemination of early warnings in Southern Africa

17. Challenges (•) and Opportunities (√)
Forecasting tools better used, but a gap in nowcasting tools evident:
No radars, thus must be MSG satellite based
There were data communication challenges
Need to use satellite-broadcast platforms, for example EUMETCAST
Interaction between NMHSs, disaster management authorities, media; reaction of public to warnings is still not optimal
Develop enhanced products and services to disaster management
Develop ongoing coordination between forecasters and disaster managers and the media
Carry out public awareness raising campaigns

18. SWFDP - General Lessons
Accelerated implementation of outputs from advanced NWP/EPS in developing countries
Continuous learning by forecasters
Tight cycle of demonstration, adapting to regional needs, evaluation, and implementation
Contributing to learning practical probabilistic forecasting methods
Increased visibility, credibility, and value of meteorological services
New role for WMO regional centres (RSMC) in severe weather forecasting for the region

19. SWFDP – Southern Africa Way Forward – underway
Expand SWFDP to include all 16 countries in southern Africa region (implementation plan to 2011)
All season, multi-hazards
Emphasize warnings (exchange, verification, public feedback) and services
2-week training of forecasters and disaster managers of 16 countries (Nov 2008, Oct 2009, Q4/2010)
Incorporate flood forecasting (regional flash flood guidance)
marine/ocean, aviation forecasting aspects
GIFS/TIGGE FDP (TC prediction, heavy precipitation, week-2)
Other regional projects (e.g. South Pacific Islands)

20. SUMMARY
SWFDP was a successful demonstration how developing countries can be assisted to reduce the technology gap in weather forecasting to support operational severe weather forecasting
It is essential to extend the SWFDP to the other countries in Southern Africa, with increasing focus on warning services
There are a number of areas that need urgent attention, particularly nowcasting technology, and improved partnerships with disaster management authorities
It is also now time to plan towards the next level of warning services, i.e. a comprehensive multi-hazard EWS for the region

21. Thank You! pchen@wmo.int eugene.poolman@weathersa.co.za21