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Www.pinnacle-advisory.com. Historic Perspective September 11, 2001 Fear of Travel Economic Recession.

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Presentation on theme: "Www.pinnacle-advisory.com. Historic Perspective September 11, 2001 Fear of Travel Economic Recession."— Presentation transcript:

1 www.pinnacle-advisory.com

2 Historic Perspective

3 September 11, 2001 Fear of Travel Economic Recession

4 MOTT Survey Suburban Boston Occupancy –7 Points Avg Rate – 5% Boston/Cambridge Occupancy –6 Points Avg Rate –5% 2001 Operator Forecasted Declines as a direct result of 9-11

5 Suburban Boston 2001

6 Source: Smith Travel Research

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12 Occupancy: 62% (Down 11 Points) Average Rate: $109 (Down 2 Percent) RevPAR: $68 (Down 17 Percent) Suburban Boston 2001

13 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

14 Boston / Cambridge 2001

15 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

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21 Occupancy: 69% (Down 9.5 Points) Average Rate: $186.49 (Down 7 Percent) RevPAR: $128.57 (Down 18 Percent) Boston / Cambridge 2001

22 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

23 Suburban Boston 2002

24 Factors Affecting The Suburban Boston Lodging Market In 2002 New Supply Still Significant (6% vs 8%) Citywide Conventions Worse (15 vs. 17) The Economy Worse Than Expected

25 Occupancy: Up Two Points to 64 Percent Average Rate: Down 2 Percent to $107.30 RevPAR: Down 1 Percent to $68.73 Suburban Boston 2002

26 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

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29 Boston / Cambridge 2002

30 Factors Affecting The Boston/Cambridge Market In 2002 Supply Changes Citywide Conventions Non-Citywide Group Demand Corporate Demand Leisure Travelers

31 Supply Changes No Change In Short-Term 2.4 Percent Increase in 2001 4.0 Percent increase in 2002 Projects: Hampton Inn Commonwealth Hotel Nine-Zero Embassy Suites Renovation of Ritz Carlton

32 Citywide Conventions 15 Citywides (Down From 17) Loss Of Seybold will impact April Now 2Q Looks Weak (In addition to 1Q)

33 Non-Citywide Group Demand In-House Group Pace is now off Pace Improves in 2H 02 (with economy?) Cambridge pace is not expected to improve

34 Corporate Demand Slow Recovery Lack of compression from groups will limit ability to drive rate No Forecasted Economic Growth Until 2H ‘02

35 Leisure Demand “All About Rate” Increased Supply in Suburbs Decline In International Travel

36 Occupancy: Up 1 Point to 70 Percent Average Rate: Up 1 Percent to $189 RevPAR: Up 3 Percent to $131 Boston / Cambridge 2002

37 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

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40 www.pinnacle-advisory.com


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