1. EXPERT MEETING ON REQUIREMENTS OF THE CATASTROPHE INSURANCE AND WEATHER RISK MANAGEMENT MARKETS FOR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES Challenges and oportunities Eduardo Delgado Assad Embrapa Information Technology assad@cnptia.embrapa.br WRMAWMOWORLD BANKWFP Assad et al.(Embrapa e Unicamp) Geneve 05-07/2007

2. Principal climatic events storm drought hail frost High Temperature wind Assad et al.(Embrapa e Unicamp) Geneve 05-07/2007

3. Hurricane Catarina Saturday, March 27, 2004 - Winds of 150km/h and waves with 5 m height reached Torres, in Rio Grande do Sul, destroying twenty one thousand of houses, with many people injured and homeless

4. Piracicaba2006

6. Cepagri/Unicamp

7. Main problems: - High variability in the rain regimen - Sensible Regions of the influences of El Nino, La Nina - Low density of official meteorological data. - losses provoked by droughts,storms, high and low T Assad et al.(Embrapa e Unicamp) Geneve 05-07/2007

8. High rates of losses Harvests 91/92 e 92/93 Needs principally rain and temperature data. Assad et al.(Embrapa e Unicamp) Geneve 05-07/2007

9. AgrometeorologicalMonitoringwww.agritempo.gov.brAgrometeorologicalMonitoringwww.agritempo.gov.br Zullo Jr., J. et al. (Unicamp e Embrapa) Piracicaba (SP), 13/07/2007

10. Monitoring Agromet System - AGRITEMPO Principal Characteristic Data base are Free after August 2002 (T,P)

11. Real Stations - Agritempo INMET CPTEC UDs Embrapa Lamepe/Itep Cemig Cooxupé Simepar Fepagro Epagri Dep. Hidr.AL IPGO Unicamp USP Inst. Flor. Unesp CDVale Parceiros

12. Virtual Stations- Agritempo Zullo Jr., J. et al. (Unicamp e Embrapa) Piracicaba (SP), 13/07/2007 T max, Tmin Quantitatif Rain Qualitatif (binary) Yes or not

13. Evolution of agricultural insurance contracts In R$. 1 real = 0.5 US$ * Losses ~6% Source: Aliança Insurance of Brazil

14. Losses by frost in São Paulo State coffee production Area production 240.000 hectares Costs production = US$ 120 millions Expected benefits with weather forecast frost is efficient in 50% = US$ 40 milions.custosmeteor.ppt

15. Principal results Climatic risk zoningBrazil: Average Corn Yield before climatic risks zoning: 1991 a 1995 = 2564 Kg/ha Average Corn Yield after climatic risks zoning: 1996 e 2003 = 2961 Kg/ha.................15% Average soybean Yield before climatic risks zoning: 1991 a 1995 = 1808 Kg/ha Average soybean Yield after climatic risks zoning: 1996 e 2003 = 2744 Kg/ha..................26% (

16. Global Data base: Temperature, rain Imagery Technology: Research to estimate rain, soil humidity and Real Evapotranspiration. Combine high spectral with high temporal resolution (1-3 days, 500 m) Common areas for climate/agroclimate research: Crop yields, soil humidity, forecast of extremes events, forecast models adapted to agriculture 10,15 and 30 days. Combine Meta-models with local models

17. Horizontal and vertical resolution Frequency (observing cycle) Min and Max Years of historical records Need for real- (or nearly real- time observations ) Delay in availability Level of Quality AssuranceMeta Data Data improvemen ts - Filling gaps - Homogen- ization surface air temperature 40 Kmdaily15 - 30Yes10 minhighrequired Surface pressure Wind (Speed and Direction) 2/10 mdaily15-30yes10 minhighrequired Rainfall 20 kmdaily15-30yes10 minhighrequired Snow cover, depth and water equivalent Humidity 40 Kmdaily15 - 30Yes10 minhighrequired Surface vegetation type and cover 500 m10 days10 yearsN1 dayhighrequired Cloud cover 500 m10 days10 yearsN1 dayhighrequired Soil moisture 500 m1 day15-30N1 dayhighrequired Soil Temperature 500 m10 days10 yearsN1 dayhighrequired Snow melt (Run off)

18. Frost 1 kmdaily15 - 30Yes10 minhighrequired Hail local Surface water discharge Ground Water storage and fluxes Evaporation 40 Kmdaily15 - 30Yes10 minhighrequired Sea surface temperature Wave height, direction and period Below sea surface (boundary layer) temperature Tropical Cyclone (Path, land fall location, circumference of damaging wind, wind direction and speed, etc.) Other (please specify)

19. Thanks assad@cnptia.embrapa.br www.agritempo.gov.br