1. World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts May 9, 2014

2. World Wheat Production May 9, 2014

3. TURKEY IRAQ IRAN SYRIA MODIS satellite NASA GSFC NDVI Anomaly above average below MIDDLE EAST Winter Grains Crop Situation TURKEY IRAQ IRAN SYRIA 23 – 30 Apr 2014 May 9, 2014

4. MODIS Aqua Satellite Composite NDVI Percent Anomaly Image Comparison to mean: 04/23 - 04/30 2014 Spain France United Kingdom Germany Sweden Poland Czech Austria Romania Hungary Bulgaria Italy Greece Slovakia Ireland Serbia Croatia Denmark 4/23 – 4/30 2013 4 May 9, 2014

5. World Wheat Supply and Use May 9, 2014

6. U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand May 9, 2014

7. World Rice Production May 9, 2014

8. World Rice Supply and Use May 9, 2014

9. U.S. Rice Supply and Demand Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice May 9, 2014

10. World Corn Production May 9, 2014

11. Source: State Statistical Committee Abandonment is forecast at nearly 7 percent, twice the 5-year average. May 9, 2014

12. Source: MinAg Corn planting was 79% complete by May 8. May 9, 2014

13. Sources: GTIS (seed imports); USDA (yield) GTIS data are available only through January. Louis-Dreyfus analyst reports that corn-hybrid seed imports were up 50 percent at the end of February. An estimated 25 to 50 percent of total corn area is planted with hybrid seed. May 9, 2014

14. According to chief APK-Inform analyst, the decrease and fluctuation of the value of the UAH in 2009 had an unfavorable impact on spring-crop yields in Ukraine. May 9, 2014

15. A 40-percent drop in the value of the UAH has increased prices for fuel, fertilizer, and chemicals. Producers will compensate by: using cheaper materials; purchasing untreated seed and treating it themselves; focusing on fields with higher yield potential; consolidating field operations. Weather remains the top yield determinant. May 9, 2014

16. World Corn Supply and Use May 9, 2014

17. U.S. Corn Supply and Demand May 9, 2014

18. Corn Yield Yield = F (mid-May planting, July temperatures and precipitation, and June precipitation if extremely dry) 8-State Corn Belt area (IL, IN, IA, MN, MO, NE, SD, OH) States normally account for about 75 percent of production Source: Westcott and Jewison, Weather Effects on Expected Corn and Soybean Yields, USDA-ERS, Feed Outlook No. (FDS-13G-01), July 2013. July temperature and precipitation assumed at the 1988-2013 means 8-state planting progress as of mid-May Ag Outlook Forum trend of 165.3 assumed normal mid-May planting progress May 15, 2014, unknown until the May 19 th Crop Progress report May 4 th progress at 29.1 percent for 8-state region, well ahead of last year at this time, but behind normal. 18 May 9, 2014

19. Corn Planting Progress Source: NASS, Quick Stats 2.0 5/15 May 9, 2014

20. Corn Weather-Adjusted Trend Yield vs. Actual and Projected May 9, 2014

21. World Soybean Production May 9, 2014

22. U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand May 9, 2014

23. Soybean Weather-Adjusted Trend Yield vs. Actual and Projected

24. World Cotton Production May 9, 2014

26. Percent of Normal Rainfall 2011/12 = 150% 2012/13 = 97% 2013/14 = 73% NSW/QLD Border Region Cumulative Precipitation May 1 – April 30 May 9, 2014

28. El Nino Episodes (remember, this is defined by sea- surface temps!) El Nino Onset (when did the sea- surface temp anomalies appear?) Negative SOI (how did the atmosphere respond?) Growing season rainfall Dryland Area (1,000 ha) 2002/03 May (normal onset) Jun – Oct (quickly – prior to planting) Below normal5 2004/05 Jul (normal onset) Dec – Apr (more slowly – during growing season) Near to above normal 33 2006/07 Sep (late onset) Jul – Oct (quickly – prior to planting) Below normal23 2009/10 Jul (normal onset) Dec – Jan (more slowly – during growing season) Near to above normal 15 How does El Nino Impact Australian Cotton? Much too early to determine El Nino’s impact on production… …but the perceived threat may drive acreage. May 9, 2014

29. World Cotton Supply and Use May 9, 2014

30. U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand May 9, 2014

31. Three-Year Running Annual Precipitation Totals, Lubbock, TX Driest 3-Year Periods 1.2011-13 2.1952-54 3.1951-53 4.1954-56 5.1953-55 Wettest 3-Year Periods 1.1967-69 2.1985-87 3.2006-08 4.2008-10 5.2007-09 May 9, 2014

32. 3-Year Average: 55.5” May 9, 2014

33. Cotton Abandonment Rates May 2014 WASDE May 9, 2014

34. U.S. Cotton Yield/Harvested Acre 2006-2013 and May 2014 Projection May 9, 2014

35. Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand May 9, 2014

36. U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand May 9, 2014

37. U.S. Meat Production and Prices May 9, 2014

38. U.S. Meat Trade Million Pounds May 9, 2014

39. U.S. Milk Supply and Demand May 9, 2014

40. U.S. Dairy Product Prices May 9, 2014

41. U.S. Production Summary May 9, 2014

42. Domestic Demand Summary May 9, 2014

43. U.S. Export Summary May 9, 2014

44. Price Summary May 9, 2014 2013/14 estimate 2014/15 forecast Change from 2013/14 Percent Crops and products Wheat ($/bu)6.857.306.6 Rice ($/cwt)16.1015.50-3.7 Corn ($/bu)4.654.20-9.7 Soybeans ($/bu)13.1010.75-17.9 Soybean oil (¢/lb)40.0039.00-2.5 Soybean meal ($/s.t.)485.00375.00-22.7 Cotton (¢/lb)77.5073.00-5.8 Livestock Steers ($/cwt)146.1150.83.2 Hogs ($/cwt)77.972.8-6.6 Broilers (¢/lb)103.4103.80.4 Turkeys (¢/lb)105.7106.50.8 Dairy products Cheese2.011.72-14.5 Butter1.831.68-8.2 Nonfat dry milk1.841.64-10.9 Dry whey0.640.57-11.1 Milk classes Class III ($/cwt)20.7017.40-15.9 Class IV ($/cwt)21.4519.10-11.0 All milk ($/cwt)22.8520.20-11.6