1. Page 1 Pierre Pellerin and several collaborators Recherche en Prévision Numérique (RPN) Meteorological Research Division, Science and Technology Branch CAS Technical Conference Korea, November 2009 Development of the Canadian Coupled Atmosphere-Ice Ocean Forecast System

2. Page 2 1) Demonstration project: - Scientific results: Development of the Gulf St-Lawrence forecast system A first operational fully coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice 2) R&D Strategy to Expand and Globalized the coupled system. Plan:

3. Page 3 Development of the Gulf St-Lawrence forecast system A first operational fully coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice Gulf of St. Lawrence N. Atlantic The Gulf of St. Lawrence forecast system: Initiated 13 years ago by the Maurice Lamontagne Institute (DFO) and Recherche en Prévision Numérique (EC) Between January and March is nearly entirely cover of Ice Ice conditions can change very rapidly Coastal weather forecasts are very affected by the ocean conditions. During the ice period, both systems are particularly interdependent. To improve the atmospheric forecasts (icing, clouds, fog,…) To improve the ocean-ice forecasts (ice, currents, temperature, waves…) To improve the services: Major Seaway Users: EC, coast-guard, DFO, maritime transportation, DND Very interesting laboratory: Semi-enclosed Sea Circulation is controlled : by tides, exchanges with atmosphere, runoff from land, the seasonal ice cover, and the inflow through the bounding straits

4. Page 4 Models & Coupling strategy Atmosphere: Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM): –Regional configuration LAM @ 15km - 2.5 km and 58 levels; Ocean: Gulf of St. Lawrence Model (ROM, Saucier et al. 2003): –3D Ocean @ 5km and 73 levels; version 4.9.5 (5.2.2); –Sea-ice (dynamic - thermodynamic); Elastic-viscous-plastic (EVP) model (Hunke & Dukowicz, Los Alamos CICE model, 1997); Thermodynamic: Semtner, 1976; Coupler OASISv3-Gossip (Valcke 2004) Methodology

5. Page 5 Atmosphere Ocean-Ice Each: 600 seconds IR and Vis flux, Humidity, Pressure, Winds, Precipitation, Temperature. Heat and Vapour Flux IR flux. 15 km timestep=600s 5 km timestep=300s Coupler Coupling description

6. Page 6 Ice fraction 48h forecast 2 way coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice An interesting Case Case: Particularly interesting given that the intense atmospheric circulation that dramatically changed the Ice conditions in only 48 hours was preceded by a cold and relatively quiet period.

7. Page 7 C d) A C 0 20 40 60 80 % Anticosti Clouds Ice Water Ice Observation Forecast (coupled) Ice Valid: 14/03/97 20 Z after 44 hours Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice An interesting Case Ice Forecast

8. Page 8 Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice An interesting Case Difference Air temp. Coupled - Uncoupled Impact on surface air temperature

9. Page 9 Impacts on low level clouds (air-ocean exchanges) UncoupledFully coupled a)b) c) Water Ice Clouds AVHRR Nova-Scotia New-Brunswick P-E. I. Cape-Breton M. I. Clouds over Ice Water Ice Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice An interesting Case

10. Page 10 Data: Hourly air & dew point temperature, surface pressure, cloud cover 6-hourly precipitation accumulation Objective Evaluation (Surface observations) 44 stations Operational implementation

11. Page 11 Impact on atmospheric variables Winter 2008 Forecast hour % Coupled System better (> 50%) Operational implementation Temperature Humidity Clouds Precipitation Surface pressure

12. Page 12 Surface temperature (TT) Forecast hour Dew point temperature (TD) Forecast hour Statistics for February 2008 Uncoupled Fully coupled Operational implementation

13. Page 13 Summary: EC and DFO have successfully developed a fully-interactive coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean forecasting system for the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL) This system will become fully operational at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) this winter Results during the past year have demonstrated that the coupled system produces improved weather forecasts in and around the GSL during all seasons –Shows that atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions are indeed important even for short-term Canadian weather forecasts Used by Canadian Ice services, Coast-Guard, Department National Defense Operational Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice system Gulf of St. Lawrence

14. Page 14 1) Demonstration project: - Scientific results: Development of the Gulf St-Lawrence forecast system A first operational fully coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice 2) R&D Strategy to Expand and Globalized the coupled system. Plan:

15. Page 15 15 Canada requires ocean forecasts and information services for: –Weather prediction –Sea ice prediction (e.g. CCG: seal hunt, navigation) –Fisheries and aquaculture management –Increased understanding of biological field observations –Attribution and mitigation of regional climate change impacts –Risk assessment for extreme events (sea level, waves, currents) –Search and Rescue, dispersion of pollutants Global Coupled System

16. Page 16 Mercator-Canada Alliance Summary: In 2005 Environment Canada, Department of Fisheries and Oceans and Department of National Defense recognized a common need for products and modeling capabilities that can be provided by an operational global coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice data assimilation and prediction system MERCATOR was selected by an inter-departmental advisory panel to become partner for the development of an operational Canadian coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice data assimilation and modelling capability Global Coupled System 4 years later: A MOU between the three departments is now in place: Research, Development and Implementation of Operational Coupled Atmosphere- Ocean-Ice Assimilation and Prediction Systems for Canada A letter of intent between Canada and Mercator put in place –Collaborations and Exchanges underway –The current operational ocean model of the Mercator-Ocean group has been installed in Canada and is now used as common research system between DFO-EC An International Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Canada and the Mercator Océan is being drafted and is under review –Main objective: Build a medium-long term perspective of collaboration between the two groups

17. Page 17 Core Projects Atmosphere Ice-Ocean Data Assimilation Observations Models Atmospheric Forecasts Products Data Assimilation Observations Models Project 1: Project 1: Atm-Ice-Ocean Coupling (models and data assimilaton) Project 2: Ice-Model Project 4: Project 4: Ice Data Assimilation Ice-ocean Forecasts Products Project 3: Project 3: Ocean Data Assimilation and Ice- Ocean Forecasting Global Coupled System

18. Project 1: Gulf St-Lawrence Atm.-Ocean-Ice Short term High-Resolution Project 3: Great-Lakes Atm.-Lakes-Ice Short term High-Resolution Project 2: Arctic Atm. – Ice Short term forecasts High-Resolution ORCA025 Project 4: Global

19. Page 192/23/2014Page 19 Mont-Joli, 06 Feb. 2008 GEM Coupled Observations Operational implementation Fully Coupled system VS Operational GEM (48 hours forecast) GEM Operational (Uncoupled) ~ 24 hours