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1 JRC – Ispra DG JRC and EC4MACS IPTS Institute for Prospective Technology Studies - Peter Russ - Antonio Soria - Szabolc Szekeres IES Institute for Environment.

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Presentation on theme: "1 JRC – Ispra DG JRC and EC4MACS IPTS Institute for Prospective Technology Studies - Peter Russ - Antonio Soria - Szabolc Szekeres IES Institute for Environment."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 JRC – Ispra DG JRC and EC4MACS IPTS Institute for Prospective Technology Studies - Peter Russ - Antonio Soria - Szabolc Szekeres IES Institute for Environment and Sustainability - John Van Aardenne - Adrian Leip - Rita Van Dingenen - Frank Dentener - Frank Raes

2 estimation of the impacts of climate change (PESETA) mitigation scenarios (POLES) economic impact of policies (GEM-E3) 2 Techno-economic characteristics of energy technologies emission inventory (EDGAR) technical characteristic costs environmental impact Participate in technology development CCS H2H2 Renewables Provide policy advice co-benefits of policies on air pollution (TM5/RITA) JRC activities in support of Climate Change policy making

3 3 JRC – Ispra NO x VOC SO 2 PM emissions air pollution O3 PM biosphere global temperature ecosystems human health CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O emissions CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O concentrations fossil fuel us, fertilizer use need for energy, mobility,food Earth System machinery technical measures behavioral measures structural measures POLICY RESPONSE integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change

4 4 JRC – Ispra NO x VOC SO 2 PM emissions air pollution O3 PM biosphere global temperature ecosystems human health CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O emissions CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O concentrations fossil fuel use need for energy, mobility Earth System machinery technical measures behavioral measures structural measures POLICY RESPONSE integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change

5 5 JRC – Ispra A 2ºC target pathway requires substantial emission reductions in the energy sector source: JRC-IPTS, published in SEC(2007)7

6 6 JRC – Ispra Emission reductions needed in all sectors, power sector remains key for low-cost reductions

7 7 JRC – Ispra Energy savings and technological change are crucial for realising a climate change pathway

8 8 JRC – Ispra The importance of new technologies example of global renewable electricity generation source: JRC-IPTS, published in SEC(2007)7, modified

9 9 JRC – Ispra NO x VOC SO 2 PM emissions air pollution O3 PM biosphere global temperature ecosystems human health CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O emissions CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O concentrations fossil fuel use need for energy, mobility Earth System machinery technical measures behavioral measures structural measures POLICY RESPONSE integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change

10 Main emission sectors Energy Industrial combustion Power generation Transformation Residential, othr Transport Non-energy Coal production Oil production Gas production Industrial processes Iron and steel production Non-ferro production Chemical industry Building materials Food industry Solvents Misc. Industry Agriculture/land use Arable land Rice cultivation Enteric fermentation Animal waste management Biomass burning Crop production Animal waste to soil Indirect N 2 O A forestation Waste Landfills Wastewater treatment Human wastewater disposal Waste incineration Misc. waste ~ 1500 sector, technology combinations Compounds Greenhouse gases CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O HFC HFC-125 HFC-134a HFC-143a HFC-152a HFC-227ea HFC-23 PFC C2F6 C3F8 C4F10 C5F12 C6F14 C7F16 C4F8 CF4 SF6 Air pollutant/precursor NO x SO 2 (NH 3 ) CO NMVOC (25 species) BC OC Emissions provided on public domain: by country: (240) and grid (1x1), 0.1x0.1 (forthcoming) by year: 1990,1995,2000; GHG 1970-2000, 2004 (forthcoming) Grid emissions by location of facility (NO x 1x1 oil production): Grid emissions by transport routes (NO x 1x1 shipping): Collaboration with MNP (NL), MPI (DE), CAPRI EDGAR global emission inventory

11 11 JRC – Ispra Aerosol chemistry and deposition Ozone chemistry and depostion Source-receptor calculations Verification/evaluation of emission inventories: Inverse Modelling TM5 zoom model

12 12 JRC – Ispra 2000 surface ozone with TM5 2030 minus 2000 POLES climate change policy scenario

13 13 JRC – Ispra NO x VOC SO 2 PM emissions air pollution O3 PM biosphere global temperature ecosystems human health CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O emissions CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O concentrations fossil fuel use need for energy, mobility Earth System machinery technical measures behavioral measures structural measures POLICY RESPONSE integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change

14 14 JRC – Ispra 2000 2030 minus 2000 CLE-IIASA surface ozone with TM5 air pollution reduction scenario

15 15 JRC – Ispra 2030 minus 2000 POLES2030 minus 2000 CLE-IIASA change in surface ozone betw. 2000 & 2030 air pollution policies climate change policies

16 16 JRC – Ispra cost of surface ozone on agriculture

17 17 JRC – Ispra NO x VOC SO 2 PM emissions air pollution O3 PM biosphere global temperature ecosystems human health CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O emissions CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O concentrations fossil fuel use need for energy, mobility Earth System machinery technical measures behavioral measures structural measures POLICY RESPONSE integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change

18 18 JRC – Ispra 1750 - 2000 - 1.95 W/m 2 2000 - 2030 MFR + 1.12 W/m 2 2000 - 2030 CLE - 0.17 W/m 2 radiative forcing by aerosols: past & future (direct & indirect effects) -6.0 -4.5 -3.0 -1.5 0 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.0 W/m 2 1750 - 2000 + 2.60 W/m 2 2000 – 2050 B1 + 1.90 W/m 2 aerosols greenhouse gasses

19 19 JRC – Ispra NO x VOC SO 2 PM emissions air pollution O3 PM biosphere global temperature ecosystems human health CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O emissions CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O concentrations fossil fuel use need for energy, mobility Earth System machinery technical measures behavioral measures structural measures POLICY RESPONSE integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change

20 20 JRC – Ispra NO x VOC SO 2 PM emissions air pollution O3 PM biosphere global temperature ecosystems human health CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O emissions CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O concentrations fossil fuel use need for energy, mobility Earth System machinery technical measures behavioral measures structural measures SYSTEM RESPONSE POLICY RESPONSE integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change

21 21 JRC – Ispra

22 22

23 23 Basic assumptions of the simulated 2ºC target pathway Energy efficiency improvements through dedicated policies, e.g. standards Global emissions peak by 2020 and decrease by 25% compared to 1990 by 2050 Developed countries take on emission reduction targets in the order of 30% by 2020 Carbon prices in developing countries follow developed countries with a delay of several years, simulating e.g. the effect of flexible Kyoto mechanisms (JI/CDM) Transport, residential and service sectors are not part of an emission trading scheme but experience policies that are equivalent to a carbon permit price The global price per ton of CO 2 increases from 21 EUR in 2015 to 64 EUR by 2030 source: JRC-IPTS; published in SEC(2007)7

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