1. Reassessment of poverty status and performance of poverty alleviation measures in China Funing Zhong, Hua Liu & Qi Miao College of Economics & Management Nanjing Agricultural University The Fourth International October 22-24, 2007 Conference on Agricultural Statistics Beijing, China

2. Achievement and Challenges Poverty incidence reduced from 30.7% to 2.5% between 1978 and 2005 (250 millions down to 23.65 millions) But, still a large number of the poor; poverty eradication more difficult; disadvantageous position prominent --Liu Jian

3. Outline I. Achievement & Challenges in China II. Measurements and Implications III. Evidence from Chinese Experience IV. Summary & Conclusions

4. Measurements and Its Implication Measurements Poverty Incidence Poverty Depth Poverty Severity

5. Measurements and Its Implication Different Effects with Measurements --Base line Figure 1 Impact on Income Distribution, baseline Population % Poverty line Per capita income 50% of poverty line 60% of poverty line Income distribution curve 1 Income distribution curve 2 40%50%

6. Measurements and Its Implication Different Effects with Measurements --Base line Before After Change Poverty Incidence 0.5 0.4 -20% Poverty Depth 0.25 0.2 -20% Poverty Severity 0.0833 0.0533 -36%

7. Measurements and Its Implication Different Effects with Measurements --Policy Options I & II Figure 2 Impact on Income Distribution, Options 1 & 2 Population % Poverty line 50% of poverty line 68% of poverty line Income distribution curve Policy option 1 32%50% Policy option 2 Per capita income

8. Measurements and Its Implication Different Effects with Measurements --Policy Options III & IV Figure 2 Impact on Income Distribution, Options 3 & 4 Population % Poverty line Per capita income 50% poverty 80% poverty Income distribution curve 30%50%20% A B C DE G F S DEF indicates option 3, public resources allocated to the less poor; S BGC indicates option 4, public resources allocated to the most poor

9. Table 1 Comparison of Alternative Policies Options Measures Base line Policy option 1Policy option 2Policy option 3Policy option 4 value Δ%Δ% Δ%Δ% Δ%Δ% Δ%Δ% P1P1 0.40.32-200.5+250.2-500.5+25 P2P2 0.20.25+200.16-200.4+1000.16-20 P3P3 0.0530.13+1450.0341-320.208+2930.029-45 Measurements and Its Implication Different Effects with Measurements

10. Evidence from China Changing Poverty Status Table 2 Proportion of Population in Different Income Groups (Yuan, %) 19851990199520002004 income (%) income (%) income (%) income (%) income (%) <610.3<340.21<320.31<300.04 <1000.9561-1211.7834-690.3632-640.2030-610.13 69-1030.7864-960.4361-910.21 103-1371.4796-1270.6991-1210.31 100-20011.2121-1826.56137-1722.3127-1591.01121-1510.53 159-1911.37151-1820.85 200-30025.64182-24212.04172-2759.54191-2554.44182-2422.43 Income is adjusted by CPI with 1985 as the base year

11. Evidence from China Changing Poverty Status Figure 4 Changing Income Distribution of the Poor

12. YearP1P1 P2P2 P3P3 Z (yuan) 198513.8423.8913.05206 199013.3923.528.92340 19959.0827.7612.61600 20005.4630.5315.65647 20054.0138.1624.94707 Evidence from China Changing Poverty Status Table 3 Poverty by different measurements Income is adjusted by CPI with 1985 as the base year

13. v Evidence from China Changing Poverty Status Figure 5 Trends of Poverty under Different Measurements

14. Evidence from China Changing Rural Income, per capita Figure 6 Trends of Farm and Non-farm Income in Rural China

15. P1P1 P2P2 P3P3 Ln farm income -0.0998-0.2009-0.5507 (-0.38)(-2.22)(-2.76) Ln non-Farm income-0.47110.23080.5424 (-2.95)(4.19)(4.48) R-squared0.900.790.76 Evidence from China Table 4 Effects of Income Growth on Poverty Measures Income Effects vary on poverty Status

16. Summaries & Conclusions 1. Effects of poverty reduction policies could be assessed by different measurements, policy options could be selected based on different objectives under different situations. 2. The significant achievement in Chinese poverty reduction has been benefited by general economic growth, especially the fast urbanization & industrialization. 3. Yet, the situations of the remaining poor have been worsened with lower average income & even more uneven distribution.

17. Summaries & Conclusions 4. After significant reduction of poverty population & with harmonious society being top policy objective, more attention should be paid to the poorest. 2. Specific poverty reduction measures are required as general growth may not benefit the poorest. 3. Changing of poverty measurement may facilitate reallocation of poverty reduction funds, as public efforts influenced by the measurements in assessment.

18. 谢谢各位 !