1. National Transfer Account 1 National Transfer Account China NTA Workshop I NUPRI, Tokyo, Japan Qiulin CHEN 陈秋霖 CCER, Peking University Beijing, China October 27, 2005

2. National Transfer Account 2 Description Rural NTA -- Only rural individual survey data now –Household survey from the Department of Agriculture –Annually statistic data: Statistic Yearbook, and other special yearbook –Population census data (aggregate) Has to combine the individual and household data –Has not cleaned it well. Should be more careful Household expenditure/income data –Can not reach some results required A Practice -- Preparation for the research

3. National Transfer Account 3 Some results The great curve NTA Table What we have?

4. National Transfer Account 4 Lifecycle Deficit 1.2.1 earnings Income from labor working for a factory or government 1.2.2 benefits no benefit data in this survey 1.2.3 self-employment labor income Farmers are regarded as self-employment and 2/3 of their income is calculated as labor earnings About the Labor income –Lowess the sum or sum those have been lowessed

5. National Transfer Account 5 Lifecycle Deficit About the wage –The young have more labor earning because many young rural people work outside the village, which is an important reason of “China Price”. – Something may be wrong with the older group. –Use estimation to deal with the wage because have no individual wage –Using average of wage in an family will got another result.

6. National Transfer Account 6 Lifecycle Deficit 1.1.1 Public consumption Use the structure of Government Budgetary Expenditure to estimate the government consumption expenditure (in the national account) –1.1.1.1 Education Distribute the total education expenditure by the budgetary expenditure of school at different level. Estimate the student number at different level by age ( using the enrollment at different level by age from the census data) –1.1.1.2 Health Per capita (because it is public health expenditure) –1.1.1.3 Others Per public 1.1.2 Private consumption Only have total household consumption data, so just deal with them by the estimation on the other consumption. No estimation of health and education expenditureH –Education –Health –Others

7. National Transfer Account 7 Asset Reallocation 2.2 Private Asset Reallocations 2.2.1.1 Private capital inflow –Inflow: income from the capital and borrow from the bank –Banks lend most money for production in rural China

8. National Transfer Account 8 Asset Reallocation 2.2.1.2 Private capital onflow –Onflow: operational investment, bond and saving, interest payed –Banks lend most money for production in rural China 2.2.2 Private land –Land is owned by the government, the privatization is a hot topic now. 2.2.3 Credit – inflow

9. National Transfer Account 9 Asset Reallocation 2.1 Public Asset Reallocations –Because of the data restriction, we use the public capital income as residual and calculate the public saving. –Public saving is the net government debt (both domestic and foreign)= new debt – pay for interest and principle 3.1 Public Transfers –Inflow:No cash inflow, only government expenditure. –Outflow:tax are distribute according their related payers

10. National Transfer Account 10 Transfers 3.2 Private Transfers –Intra-house transfer: can not estimate now. Need household health/education/ other expenditure share –inter house transfer: support from relatives outside the family

11. National Transfer Account 11 The Great Cure of China － individual Why the older has no deficit of surplus? –Check carefully the consistency of the data –The estimation method household total consumption Wage earning may be overvalued The great curve now looks not very great! ?

12. National Transfer Account 12 NTA table of Rural China － aggregate Only aggregate the rural data (rural population) Population distribution: Use the current total population (2002) distributed by the population census data (2000)

13. National Transfer Account 13 Problems 研 About definition About methodology About data

14. National Transfer Account 14 National Transfer Account formula Lifecycle DeficitAsset ReallocationTransfers IncomeConsumptionIncomeInvestmentOutflowInflow

15. National Transfer Account 15 What’s going on? Access of proper database –Population census data –Expenditure survey data –Health service data Adjusting statistical items to NTA account –As a transitional country, there is a lot of policy and institutional factors –As a big country, the difference among area may affect the consistency Theoretical discussion –Lifecycle transfers in Marco-econ Model Method development –Other way to solve coming problems

16. National Transfer Account 16 Tha nks Welcome to CHINA Peking Univ. CCER 谢 Thanks!