1. Highlights of Monday's Aviation Workshop: Mapping the Way Ahead Joe Kunches NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SWPC Boulder, Colorado Joe Kunches NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SWPC Boulder, Colorado 2008 Space Weather Workshop April 29 Boulder

2. Session Overview High Points – Programmatics – Radiation and Forecast Challenges – Airlines (Polar routes are hot!, Cross Polar Working Group, AMS Policy Study, Education) – Panels – Airline operations issues – New services from modelers, SWPC, and Commercial Interests High Points – Programmatics – Radiation and Forecast Challenges – Airlines (Polar routes are hot!, Cross Polar Working Group, AMS Policy Study, Education) – Panels – Airline operations issues – New services from modelers, SWPC, and Commercial Interests

3. Programmatics World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Initiative Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) NextGen Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Alaska Region Collaboration Team (ARCTic) World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Initiative Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) NextGen Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Alaska Region Collaboration Team (ARCTic)

4. World Meteorological Organization Formal recognition of space weather Uses existing ISES relationships Dovetails to WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM) On Executive Council agenda for June 2008 Formal recognition of space weather Uses existing ISES relationships Dovetails to WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM) On Executive Council agenda for June 2008

5. Significance of WMO Invitation Provides overarching legitimacy of space weather activities For aviation that links to: – International Civil Aviation Organization (183 States) – International Air Transport Association (240 Airlines) – FAA » Cross Polar Working Group Provides overarching legitimacy of space weather activities For aviation that links to: – International Civil Aviation Organization (183 States) – International Air Transport Association (240 Airlines) – FAA » Cross Polar Working Group

6. Space Weather Radiation Hazards Aviation Workshop By Ron Zwickl NOAA/SWPC April 28, 2008

7. FRA to DFW flight

8. Two major radiation risks in exploratory missions SPE: sporadic, high dose. Shielding generally effective. Acute (deterministic) effects GCR: chronic, low dose. Shielding poorly effective. Late (stochastic) effects Annual dose on Earth Daily dose in LEO CT abdomen/pelvis Annual dose limit for radiation workers Azoospermia Lymphopenia Nausea Vomiting Haematopoietic syndrome Chest X-ray film GI syndrome CNS syndrome Pelvis X-ray film Fibrosis Skin desquamation Annual dose in Kerala (India) Annual cosmic rays at sea level 1 10 100 1000 10000 0.1 100000 Dr. Durante 4 th European SWW Bruxelles, Belgium, Nov 9, 2007

9. Radiation storm prediction – the challenges facing forecasters Aviation Workshop Boulder, Colorado, April 28 2008 Radiation Storms Proton Event Statistics Forecasting Challenges (and Successes!)

11. Radiation storms are infrequent during the solar minimum years but large storms can occur during these minimum years The Large >100 MeV Events (in pfu) 14 Jul 200041028 Oct 2003186 08 Nov 200034729 Oct 2003110 15 Apr 200114620 Jan 2005652 04 Nov 2001253

12. Mike Stills Captain Bryn Jones Joe Kunches United Airlines SolarMetrics Limited, UK Space Weather Services Branch NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA Cross Polar Trans East ATM Providers’ Working Group AA System Operations Control Centre Dallas, Texas April 1–3, 2008 CPTEWG Space Weather Sub-Group: Defining Aviation Industry User Requirements

13. Aviation Workshop, NOAA SWPC Space Weather Workshop Boulder, Colorado. April 28, 2008 From the Airlines: What’s New Content Polar Route Popularity - A Great Place to Go!! Cross Polar Working Group (CPWG) Activities AMS and SolarMetrics Aviation Policy Study – Implementation Education Needs?

14. Aviation Workshop, NOAA SWPC Space Weather Workshop Boulder, Colorado. April 28, 2008 From the Airlines: What’s New Polar Route Popularity – Some Statistics

15. Aviation Workshop, NOAA SWPC Space Weather Workshop Boulder, Colorado. April 28, 2008 From the Airlines: What’s New Aviation User Requirements – work plan Defining user requirements Define & prioritise the impacts/hazards Discuss operational decision-processes for each hazard Draught Service/Product Wish Lists (Forecasting, Nowcasting, Warnings, Alerts, etc) Communicating Space Weather information Delivery methods Formatting and integration with Terrestrial Weather Products (NextGen, SESAR) Product Training

16. Airline Operations Panel Bryn Jones (moderator), Mike Holland, Henning Luebbe, Joel Morin, Mike Stills

17. Aviation Workshop, NOAA SWPC Space Weather Workshop Boulder, Colorado. April 28, 2008 From the Airlines: What’s New Aviation User Requirements Current Polar-Ops route scenario chosen NextGen (SESAR) consideration Impact based – i.e., user viewpoint, not science focused HF Comms Radiation (Avionics, Humans) GPS / Navigation

18. Operations Key Points In flight measurements necessary to quantify radiation Do take action based on forecasts Pilot reports helpful for validation of models Paradox: New technologies allow efficiencies but vulnerable to SpWx Comm/Nav highest priorities “Don’t get too hung upon Solar Max – there are plenty of disruptions now!” In flight measurements necessary to quantify radiation Do take action based on forecasts Pilot reports helpful for validation of models Paradox: New technologies allow efficiencies but vulnerable to SpWx Comm/Nav highest priorities “Don’t get too hung upon Solar Max – there are plenty of disruptions now!”

19. New Services Panel Kent Tobiska (moderator), Herb Sauer, Steve Hill, Chris Mertens

20. New Services Key Points NAIRAS funded, work to get global radiation field (Mertens) Geographic and day/night differences in HF/VHF effects (Sauer) SWPC reorg to get more products and services – D-Region Test Product soon (Hill) NAIRAS funded, work to get global radiation field (Mertens) Geographic and day/night differences in HF/VHF effects (Sauer) SWPC reorg to get more products and services – D-Region Test Product soon (Hill)

21. NAIRAS Integrated System Solution Predictions/ Nowcast/Forecast Predictions/ Nowcast/Forecast Observations Data Decision Support Tools NAIRAS Assessment: Real-time, global, atmospheric Ionizing radiation dose rates Track and archive radiation exposure levels at commercial airline altitudes Enter flight path data to track/archive individual crewmember radiation exposure levels Provide accumulated radiation exposure levels from “phantom” pilots with typical flight schedules and representative flight paths Decision Support Tools NAIRAS Assessment: Real-time, global, atmospheric Ionizing radiation dose rates Track and archive radiation exposure levels at commercial airline altitudes Enter flight path data to track/archive individual crewmember radiation exposure levels Provide accumulated radiation exposure levels from “phantom” pilots with typical flight schedules and representative flight paths Nowcast Predictions Forecasts Model products Computational Techniques Visualizations Interoperability standards Observations Geophysical parameters Value & Benefits Real-time monitor of biologically harmful atmospheric radiation Provide FAA/aviation industry valuable data for developing policies and procedure for modifying aircrew travel schedules to limit radiation exposures Provide critical data for airline policy/management decisions for flight rerouting during solar storm events Provide health sector (e.g., NIOSH) with data to improve policies for radiation exposure limits Value & Benefits Real-time monitor of biologically harmful atmospheric radiation Provide FAA/aviation industry valuable data for developing policies and procedure for modifying aircrew travel schedules to limit radiation exposures Provide critical data for airline policy/management decisions for flight rerouting during solar storm events Provide health sector (e.g., NIOSH) with data to improve policies for radiation exposure limits Earth-Sun Observations Near-Earth+Space Environment: NASA/ACE/HEAO-3 NOAA/GOES Assimilated Atmospheric: Atmospheric Depth (METO) Ground-based: Neutron Count Monitors Earth-Sun Observations Near-Earth+Space Environment: NASA/ACE/HEAO-3 NOAA/GOES Assimilated Atmospheric: Atmospheric Depth (METO) Ground-based: Neutron Count Monitors Earth-Sun System & Planetary Models Radiation Dose Rates: AIR,HZETRN,MESTRN Near-Earth/Space Environment: Badhwar/ONeill-GCR,CMIT, LFM,SEP-trajectory,IGRF+ T96 magnetic field Earth-Sun System & Planetary Models Radiation Dose Rates: AIR,HZETRN,MESTRN Near-Earth/Space Environment: Badhwar/ONeill-GCR,CMIT, LFM,SEP-trajectory,IGRF+ T96 magnetic field ROSES 2005 - A.24

22. South Polar Presentation June 21, 2000 00:00 UT Kp= 3 Scale indicates frequency at which the absorption reaches 10dB indicating severe degradation to complete blackout

23. 23 The Plan Contact Information: Dr. Steven M Hill Development and Transition Section Lead NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-3283 steven.hill@noaa.gov Summer 2008 – Deploy Release 2 as an NWS Enhanced Product Fall ‘08 through Spring ’09 – Test period to collect customer input and suggestions Summer ’09 – Deploy as an operational NWS product, or incorporate user suggested changes and deploy for reevaluation

24. New Product Announcement Space Environment Technologies, IPS MeteoStar, Space Environment Corporation, and Air Force Research Laboratory, with assistance from NASA, to unveil a new product for commercial aviation tomorrow at this meeting. Watch for it!

25. parting shot … Kanzelhoehe Solar Observatory, Austria December 1, 2000