1. Vladimir Djurdjevic South East European Virtual Climate Change Centre
Regional climate change scenarios: Products and services of the South East European Virtual Climate Change Centre
Vladimir Djurdjevic South East European Virtual Climate Change Centre

2. SEEVCCC Background - Enhancing sub-regional SEE cooperation in climate related issues
Political agreement UNECE “Environment for Europe” 2007
WMO RA VI RCC-Network
UNFCCC Nairobi Work Programme
WCRP (CORDEX, …)
SEEVCCC + SEE CCFAP (Action Plan) Adaptation
Partners
Under consideration
MoE-Serbia
REC
Geo-Modelling RGGM
University of Belgrade Oxford
BiH
FYROM
MNE
SRB
NMHSs, R&D inst., … MoUs
Bulgaria
Israel
Malta
EMC, Turkey
DMCSEE, Slovenia
CIMA
ALB

3. Climate change scenarios:
Downscaling of SINTEX-G (INGV)
Coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University – Princeton Ocean Model)
A1B:
A1B:
A2:

4. Climate change scenarios:
Annual temperature and precipitation change:
A1B: A1B: A2:

5. ● Example of RCM-SEEVCCC climate projections application
● Regional dynamical downscaling provides information with more details about
present climate and future climate changes.
● Important for different impact studies especially on regional level:
energy, hydrology, agriculture, environmental protection, industry,..
● Summer Drying Problem (CLAVIER project)
It is well known that Climate models in region of Pannonian valley have significant BIAS,
therefore it is necessary to apply more complex BIAS correction for climate change impact.
● Example: Application of Climate Projections in Vineyard Regions in Serbia
Subotica-Horgos
Srem
Banat
Sumadija
West Morava
Timok
Nisava-South Morava
Pocerac
Kosovo
Results for (A2):
growing season:
beginning April → March
growing degree days 1440 → 2400
duration 200 → 240 days
above tolerable warmer and dryer
rest season:
beginning one month later
first frost date ~15days later
number of frost days 90 → 50
no appearance of critical temp. <-15C
Climate in present vineyard regions (<400m alt.)
Shifts on ~1000m altitude
Ovo je primer CCFAP-A podloge za adaptaciju … sprovodjenje Nairobi Work Propgrama, izrada akcionog plana …. Pre ovog lsajda mora da ide neki CCFAP slajd.
Staviti naslovnu stranu CCFAP-a.
UNFCCC context of the Belgrade Initiative: Reziltati IPCC scenarija povezanim modelom koji koristi Centar su vec primenjeni u nacionalnim komunikacijama prema UNFCCC za Brazil, Crnu Goru (1st and 2nd National Comm) and Serbia

6. Some selected results…
growing season start date
growing degree days
first autumn frost date
March
April
1400
2400
1.Nov.
present climate
future climate
spring
autumn
beginning
ending
winter
first frost date
Summary
growing season
duration: 200 → 240 days
number of frost days:
90 → 50
growing degree days: 1400 → 2400
num. of days Tmin<-15C:
3 → 0
warmer, dryer!
Mountain station ~1000m altitude enters
the climate regime of present vineyard regions!

7. Climate change scenarios:
Impact study: Changes in droughts duration, magnitude & intensity

8. WMO RA VI-Europe RCC Network SEEVCCC :
● Climate Data Node
Lead: KNMI/Netherlands (consortium member SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia)
South East European gridded model datasets for (ready)
● Climate Monitoring Node
Lead: DWD/Germany (participate SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia)
collecting data from the stations (monthly, stations; main source for data KNMI-ECA&D, other climate bulletins NCDC)
mean temperature and accumulated precipitation,
temperature anomaly and precipitation percent of normal,
all available monthly/three-monthly
Ovde reci stvari koje su iz Iplementation plan-a. Produkti dostupni na sajtu Centra. Analiza monitoring biltena pokazuje da broj stanica nije dovoljan za regionalni monitoring klime. Kroz MoU I striktne data policyje u razmeni veceg obima podataka doboce se bolji kvalitet produkata monitoring klime I LRF produkata. U toku operativnog rada naseg LRF sistema uocili smo da bi kvalitet mogao da se popravi kroz intenzivnu razmenu podataka. Narocita sa aspekta analize klimatski ekstrema I anomalija. Takodje se nadamo da ce druga inicijativa DRR WMO da pomogne. Ne postoje daily podaci vec samo monthly.
● Long Range Forecast Node
Lead: Météo-France & ROSHYDROMET (participate SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia)
Once a month ensemble run of a regional long range forecast - 7 months ahead:
dynamical downscaling ECMWF 41 ensemble with RCM-SEEVCCC

9. Climate Monitoring Node - Climate Watch Advisory for SEE -
● Example of the product : September 2010
Temperature anomaly
Precipitation (percent of normal)
Vazno reci da se ovaj monitoring sprovodi samo za potreba Climate Watch-a u SEE. Radi operativno. Tako da mozemo da koristimo anomalije za potrebe climate watch-a. eksperimentalno racunamo climate indices npr SPI2 standardized precip index u monitoring modu I LRF modu. Planirali smo da do kraja godine u operativan rad uvedemo proracun I drugih klimatskih indeks, a prema preporukama IPCC AR4 preporukama za region juzne evrope. Primer kako je NMHS Serbia iskoristila monitoring I LRF prognozu indeksa SPI2 bice dat sutra Mr. Pejanovic.
Centar je u skladu sa preporukama WMO obezbedjuje Climate Watch ADVISORY – It is up to the NMHSs to issue warnings on their jusrisdiction.
● available maps:
for each month and for 3 months:
● mean 2m temperature, acc. precipitation,
● temperature anomaly, precipitation percent of normal (with respect to )

10. Long Range Forecast Node - Seasonal forecast for SEE -
● Probabilistic forecast
provides statistical summary of the atmosphere and ocean state
in coming season.
● RCM-SEEVCCC LRF (Long Range Forecast – Seasonal Forecast)
regional dynamical downscaling using fully coupled atmosphere-ocean
Regional Climate Model
model start: 16th of each month
forecast duration: 7 months (~215 days)
model resolution: ~35km atmosphere ; ~20km ocean
model domain: Euro - Mediterranean region extended toward Caspian Sea
41 ensemble members
initial and boundary conditions: ECMWF, resolution:125km
results prepared for South East European region in form of:
mean ensemble maps (mean 2m temperature, precipitation accumulation, temperature
anomaly and precipitation anomaly with respect to CRU data )
for month and three months (season)
diagrams (probabilistic forecast of mean monthly temperature and monthly precipitation
accumulation for specific place)
LRF prica je da kroz SEECOF mehanizam analiziramo kljucne sezone koristeci produkte GPCs i to ECMWF I MeteoFrance I ROSHYDROMET.
Pored GPC produkata u SEECOF procesu koristi se i LRF produkt SEEVCCC za SEE, kao i produkti zainteresovanih NMHS iz regiona SEECOF.
Kroz SEECOF su dati conseus forecasts.
SEECOF proces se sprovodi zajedno sa Slovenijom (DMCSEE) centar u kojem i Srbija ucestvuje. SEEVCCC centar je spreman da sve nase produkte stavimo na raspolaganje preko MoU za njihove drought management advisories.

11. ● Example for LRF products Maps of ensemble mean
Probabilistic Long Range Forecast
Additional: SST anomaly
Example of LRF SEEVCCC product which shows that … probailistic interpretation … spreads, parameter mean values – maps and ocean variable.
These products serve as basis for Climate Watch Advisories within Climate Monitoring RCC Node.

12. Verification of LRF downscaling will be prepared during this spring
Examples of preliminary resulat
U nasem assesmentu naseg LRF-SEEVCCC modela analiziramo skorove: Mean Error, MAError, RMS Error, Correlation Coefficient, Anomaly Corelation Coefficient ACC, Efficiency Coefficient (slicno kao RMS ali podeljeno sa varijansom osmatranja u hidrologiji se koristi).
Ovi koeficijenti se racunaju u oko 100 mesta u SEE, sada vec na 300 mesta – stations!!! Ovo ce takodje biti jos jedan od produkata SEEVCCC-a in fullfilling its mandaory function related to assessment of GPCc forecast performance in SEE region.
Drugi skorovi ce biti kompletirani do kraja godine. Kondenzovan prikaz za tri sedmomesecne prognoze …

13. Data archived in MARS (ECMWF) in SEEVCCC
Seasonal forecast – ensemble long range forecast using RCM-SEEVCCC model
Regional 3 and 5 day forecast – using WFRNMM model
Dust forecast – with and without assimilation using DREAM model
Global forecast – using GNMMB model
Climate projections – for A1B and A2 scenarios using RCM-SEEVCCC model
Regional observations in BUFR format
Projects: Aral sea, Iran, Sintex-G, Hadley center climate simulations, etc.
batch request5
Estimated number of fields: 1
retrieve,
date= ,
time=12:00:00,
stream=etad,
step=12,
levtype=pl,
expver=1,
class=ro,
type=fc,
param= ,
levelist=7

14. RCC Highly recommended functions (example):
SEEVCCC Earth Modeling System
NCEP NMMB atmospheric model
● global/regional/local
● hydrostatic/nonhydrostatic
Aerosol ↔ radiation
Aerosol ↔ cloud
DREAM Dust
Sea salt
Carbon
Pollution
HYPROM
Hydrology model
Ocean
model
Fe and P
nutrients

15. R&D: Earth Modeling System
● NCEP/NMMB – Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on B grid
Numerical Weather Prediction Model (NWPM)
Works on global, regional (res. ~10km) and local scales (res.~100m)
Valuable tool to perform simulations on any desirable resolution
quasi-operational in SEEVCCC on global and regional scales
● Atmospheric particles
Implementation of dust, sea salt, minerals and other atmospheric particles:
transport and their interactions with atmosphere and ocean
(influence on cloud formation, radiation, ocean flora and fauna,…)
for now dust component (DREAM) is prepared for implementation in NMMB
● Hydrology
Dynamical hydrology model is developed - HYPROM
simulation of hydrology cycle
HYPROM ready to be included into atmospheric driver NMMB
● Ocean
First action is to couple NMMB with ocean model
necessary because of large influence of sea on climate in the region

16. ● Examples of Earth Modeling System components’ performance
NMMB global forecast against
ECMWF analysis
DREAM modification for purpose of
volcano ash transport simulation
Eyjafjallajokull
starting date:
April 14th 2010
HYPROM discharge forecast vs. observations
Moraca river – Podgorica sub-basin (2008)

17. Operational dust forecast: DREAM
● DREAM8: Dust Regional Atmospheric Model with 8 categories for particle sizes
model runs: 12UTC start ; +72h forecast
model resolution: 1/3 degrees (~35km)
models: DREAM8 and DREAM8-assim (assimilation using ECMWF dust aerosol analysis)
presented: model run from June 11th UTC
DREAM8
DREAM8 – assim

20. SEEVCCC/CCFAP-A in support of UNFCCC implementation GFCS
Both SEEVCCC functions, under WMO and UNFCCC, may be considered as follow-up actions of WCC-3 which are in line with further development and implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services established by the WCC-3
CCFAP-A available at:

21. R&D: Earth Modeling System
Climate Watch example – precipitation anomalies and extremes
Example: Extremely wet SPI2 for February 2010, using LRF forecast (start January 1st 2010)
New! Under development
RCM-SEEVCCC
ensemble forecast
corrected LRF
RCM-SEEVCCC
ensemble forecast
observed

22. SEE RCOF – SEECOF
LRF prica je da kroz SEECOF mehanizam analiziramo kljucne sezone koristeci produkte GPCs i to ECMWF I MeteoFrance I ROSHYDROMET.
Pored GPC produkata u SEECOF procesu koristi se i LRF produkt SEEVCCC za SEE, kao i produkti zainteresovanih NMHS iz regiona SEECOF.
Kroz SEECOF su dati conseus forecasts.
SEECOF proces se sprovodi zajedno sa Slovenijom (DMCSEE) centar u kojem i Srbija ucestvuje. SEEVCCC centar je spreman da sve nase produkte stavimo na raspolaganje preko MoU za njihove drought management advisories.
RHMS/SEEVCCC together with ARSO/DMCSEE + WMO: organization and implementation
SEEVCCC ready for full support with all climate products to submit to DMCSEE for their drought advisories
SEECOF-IV in November (22-26); preceded by on-line SEECOF (verification of consensus fcst)

23. On-line SEECOF-III …. To be used in Pre-COF IV
Ovde staviti bullete koji su dati u tekstu Izvestaja. … Djurini podaci za sa listom parametara za atmo I okean.Staviti sliku sa Djurinim domenom I reci da je kaplovano sa POMom I dati BIASE. … ima slajd sledeci za Djuru. Ovde istaci da MARS software dobijen od ECMWF-a THANK YOU!

24. Facing Problems and Future Plans
setting up of sub-regional teams + CB
enhancing of sub-regional data exchange (data policy issue!)
use of other existing RCMs (RegCM4, PRECIS, etc.)
collaboration in further application and improvement of Climate Watch Advisory System
Research and Development Agenda in SEE – Meeting in April 2011
Task Team on RCOF - TT-RCOF …
Najava sastanka RD u Martu.
Formiranje I CB regionalnih timova
Dat exchange … data policy for exchage
4. Racunari tehnicka infrastruktura
5. Mladi istrazivaci
6. Koriscenje drugih regionalnih modela REGCM4, PRECIS, …
7. Saradnja u razmeni podataka o klimatskim ekstremnim pojavama u regionu I Dalji razvoj climate Watch Advisory sustema.
8. Dodati slaj o SEECOF-u I ONLINE SEECOF
9. Dodati slajd o GFCS zajedno sa CCFAP-A = >>>> Both SEEVCCC functions, under WMO and UNFCCC, may be considered as follow-up actions of WCC-3 which are in line with further development and implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services established by the WCC-3
10. Data assimilation