1. Learning from Existing Evaluation Practices on the Impacts and Effects of Intellectual Property on Development Geneva 6th/7th October 2011 Evaluation Section Internal Audit and Oversight Division (IAOD)World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

2. Using Systems Analysis to Assess the Impact of Intellectual Property Rights in Agricultural Innovation Systems Sebastian Derwisch Central Advisory Service on Intellectual Property of the CGIAR

3. Introduction CGIAR – public sector with many public and private partner Concerned about innovation and dissemination Impact of IPR, contract law and regulatory frameworks on formal seed sector development Seed development as an innovation system System dynamics modelling for a simulation based assessment tool Empirical data to develop policy scenarios Showing the long term impact of past and future policies

4. Key Evaluation Questions What are causalities in agricultural innovation systems? How do Intellectual Property Rights impact on agricultural innovation systems? Which IP policies can control developments in agricultural innovation systems?

5. Methodological approach - Background Central Advisory Service on Intellectual Property: central unit for CGIAR research centres and partnering institutions – Need for a systemic evaluation Seed development requires resources that change over time (labour, capital, knowledge, germplasm) The influence of IPR changes over time – Need for a dynamic evaluation

6. Methodological approach What is distingiushes the dynamic and the systemic perspective? What are the advantages?

7. Methodological approach – the dynamic perspective N° Patent infringement cases Time (year) Knowing how has the system been evolving… 2010

8. Methodological approach – the dynamic perspective Time (year) N° Patent infringement cases …in order to make predictive statements 2010

9. Methodological approach – the systemic perspective

12. Understanding the conetxt of innovation, the incentives and causalities

13. Methodological approach Dynamic simulation modelling - Applied to dynamic problems Understanding causalities Formalizing a simulation model (with data) Testing policies to control the system

14. Finding a case study Developing new seed varieties is central to the CGIAR and its partners Looking for a commercial system to find data about the impact of IPR Focus on the stages of commercial maize seed systems The Seed Value Chain N°

15. Finding a case study Plant breeding – South Africa South Africa maize seed variety release multinational vs domestic seed companies N° What are drivers of R&D of new seed varieties? Which resources are involved? Which actors are involved Where does IPR play a role?

16. Collecting data Structural Data – causalities, decision rules Initial Values – resource stocks Time Series – varieties Parameter Values – breeding delays, building resources

17. Data Analysis – R&D of Seed Varieties

21. 1.Acquisitions/joint ventures /greenfield entries? (under which IPR scenario?) 2.Which spillover do they generate? 3.How does this affect industry development?

22. Data Analysis – R&D of Seed Varieties

23. Findings/Conclusion/Recommendation Whats new Analyzing IPR dynamic and embedded in its systemic context Simulation enables us to make testable hypothesis about causalities – related to IPR Analyzing the direction of evolution of a system

24. Findings/Conclusion/Recommendation Use this Methodology to analyze Larger systems Strategy decisions The potential development of a system Long term developments Feedback and endogenous developments

25. Future Needs Tracing developments over time Analyzing data in systemic/dynamic models Evolution of a legal system Establishing systemic and dynamic metrics

26. Evaluation Experience CGIAR – while consulting for several CGIAR centres we used dynamic modelling qualitatively to build capacity about the role of IPR in agricultural research Public Private Partnerships – West African Seed Alliance has used our methodology in workshops and to strategize their branding activities Academia – cooperation with the University of Wageningen which through our input got a grant for using dynamic modelling to analyze informal seed systems

27. Thank You Sebastian Derwisch sde003@webmail.uib.no

28. Results Role of IPR in seed sector development -IPR might lead to blocking situations -Blocking situations fuel path dependency loops Role of Branding for agricultural inputs -Identified contribution of branding for adoption of seed -Identified branding as a policy for the public sector Dynamics of enforcement and infringement -Identified generic mechnism of law sthrength based on literature -Initial data gethering to prove theory

29. Results