1. © UKCIP 2006 UKCP09 and the West Midlands region West Midlands Regional Climate Change Adaptation Partnership, 8th July 2009 Chris Thomas, UK Climate Impacts Programme

2. © UKCIP 2006 Outline  Introduction to the new projections  What do they tell us?  What are the impacts?  How do we respond? UKCP09 and the West Midlands

3. © UKCIP 2006 So... What’s new?  Improved modelling – now includes carbon cycle feedback and takes uncertainties (both parameters and modelling) into account  Probabilistic data – considered more robust to work with a range of possible outcomes, rather than a single number  Much more data – more spatial and temporal detail  Improved accessibility and delivery – User Interface – customised outputs to explore your choice of variables. Also user guidance available, training programme Introduction to the new projections

4. © UKCIP 2006 Dealing with uncertainty Answer 1Answer 2 “42°C” No information on uncertainty Very acceptable to some May be misunderstood as “no uncertainty” Uncertainty is explicit May be unwelcome – much more work required Better decisions possible

5. © UKCIP 2006 ? VERY UNLIKELY LIKELY VERY UNLIKELY Climate variable Strength of evidence (Probability) Probabilistic data

6. © UKCIP 2006

7. Spatial and temporal  25km grid  Predefined areas  Administrative  River basins  More time periods – overlapping Much more data

8. © UKCIP 2006 Improved accessibility and delivery 2080s Mean summer temperatures, medium emissions, 50% probability level 2080s Hottest daily temperature, High emissions, 90% percentile Customisable output

9. © UKCIP 2006 UKCP09 layered approach Communicators Researcher / Scientist Decision Makers

10. © UKCIP 2006 Broad differences compared with UKCIP02 (UK wide)  Projected changes in mean temperature are generally somewhat greater than UKCIP02  Summer reduction in rainfall is not as great as UKCIP02  Increases in winter rainfall broadly similar to UKCIP02, but with a different geographical pattern  A few grid squares are projected to be drier in UKCP09 – in UKCIP02, all areas were projected to be wetter What do they tell us?

11. © UKCIP 2006 Summer average temperature in the West Midlands: significant increases over the decades to the 2080s 2080 +3.7ºC 2040 +2.2ºC 2020 +1.5ºC West Midlands central estimate Medium emissions Increased Tourism Increased Heat stress Infrastructure risks Risks to biodiversity Heat related deaths Risk to Food Security Increased Tourism Increased Heat stress Infrastructure risks Risks to biodiversity Heat related deaths Risk to Food Security The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be less than 2ºC and very unlikely to be more than 6.1ºC DEFRA, 2009 But the temperature on the hottest day of the year could increase by up to 10ºC

12. © UKCIP 2006 Summer rainfall in the West Midlands: significant summer decreases 12 Reduced stream flow and water quality Increased drought Subsidence Decreased crop yields Serious water stress Reduced stream flow and water quality Increased drought Subsidence Decreased crop yields Serious water stress 2080 -20% 2040 -11% 2020 -6% For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than -43% and very unlikely to be higher than +6% DEFRA, 2009 West Midlands central estimate Medium emissions

13. © UKCIP 2006 Winter rainfall in the West Midlands: significant increases Increased winter flooding Increased subsidence Risks to urban drainage Severe Transport disruption Risks of national Infrastructure Increased winter flooding Increased subsidence Risks to urban drainage Severe Transport disruption Risks of national Infrastructure 2080 +18% 2040 +11% 2020 +5% For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than +3% and very unlikely to be higher than +39% DEFRA, 2009 West Midlands central estimate Medium Emissions But rainfall on the wettest day of the year could increase by up to 30%

14. © UKCIP 2006 Or... Where will the impacts be felt?  West Midlands landscape: conurbation and countryside  Built up urban areas, high density housing  Social and economic impacts – health impacts  70% agriculture  Impact of changing climate on crops – opportunities?  Landscape and biodiversity  Nationally important, but also fragmented habitats  Transport infrastructure – regional and national links  Explore vulnerability to current weather: road and rail  Population density – water quality and availability What are the impacts?

15. © UKCIP 2006 Decisions, decisions...  Planning to adapt – what kind of decisions do we need to make?  What the climate and weather will be doing  The sensitivity of the system to climate and weather variables  Our own attitude to risk  Using UKCP09 is going to be more challenging than applying information from UKCIP02, especially at the more detailed levels  BUT it will be worth it – probabilistic information allows more robust decision making, as we can be more aware of the range of possibilities and can decide what level of risk we are prepared to take How do we respond?

16. © UKCIP 2006 Online support and Training  Online support  Dedicated website – start with http://ukcp09.defra.gov.ukhttp://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk  User Guidance  User Interface manual  Help Desk – FAQs – use and contribute!  Training  Projections in Practice (PiP). Go to www.ukcip.org.uk to register your interest in regional training events (Autumn 09)www.ukcip.org.uk  eLearning  Communities of practice  Webinars, podcasts  Online resources to develop skills Exploring UKCP09

17. © UKCIP 2006 Thank you http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk enquiries@ukcip.org.uk