1. Fuel Choice Model The Total Resource Cost (TRC) Perspective Michael Schilmoeller 9/8/2011

2. Summary-TRC Perspective Over 20 years – 560 MWa decline in power use – 13.1 x 10 12 BTUs per year increase in gas use – 2,593,900 existing households Annually (just divide by 20) – 28 MWa decline in power use – 657 x 10 9 BTUs per year increase in gas use – 129,695 existing households

3. WH Size > 55 gals HPWH Gas Existing or Extension only HPWHGas tank 83,480 households/yr 464 change, BTUs 10^9/yr -12.58 change, Mwa/yr 15,010 households/yr -101 change, BTUs 10^9/yr 1.25 change, MWa/yr 31,202 households/yr 0 change, BTUs 10^9/yr -5.68 change, MWa /yr The convention in this decision tree is Every factor, indicated by a square box, is followed by two branches, indicating whether the condition is true or false  The top branch leads to the outcome if the factor is TRUE; the bottom one corresponds to the situation where the condition is FALSE.  Each branch ends with a appliance choice, indicated by an oval and emphasized with an alternative font color Source: M Schilmoeller, Q:\MS\Plan 6\Studies\Model Development\Direct Use of Gas\101004 Study\Selection tree 110904.docx Water Heating

4. 15,343 households/yr 0 change, BTUs 10^9/yr -0.02 change, MWa/yr 4,111 households/yr 0 change, BTUs 10^9/yr -1.41 change, MWa/yr 19,773 households/yr 16 change, BTUs 10^9/yr -0.43 change, MWa/y 79,587 households/yr 279 change, BTUs 10^9/yr -7.45 changeWa/yr 6,086 households/yr 0 change, BTUs 10^9/yr -0.98 change, MWa/yr 4,793 households/yr 0 change, BTUs 10^9/yr -0.68 change, MWa/yr