1. Presentation to RGGI Stakeholders April 6, 2005 Steve Fine Chris MacCracken ICF Consulting RGGI Preliminary Electricity Sector Modeling Results Reference Case Sensitivity Results, 35% CO 2 Policy Case Results & Offsets Cases

2. 2 Outline  RGGI CO 2 Policy Cases Review + 35% Case Update RGGI CO 2 Policy Scenarios With and Without US/Canada Policies  Alternative Reference Cases Alternative Reference Cases with 25% CO 2 Policy Alternative Reference Cases - 25% CO 2 Policy with US/Canada Policies  CO 2 Offset Scenarios

3. RGGI CO 2 Policy Cases Review + 35% Case Update

4. 4 CO 2 Emissions across Policy Scenarios

5. 5 CO 2 Allowance Prices across Policy Scenarios

6. 6 RGGI Imports across Policy Scenarios

7. 7 RGGI Average Annual Energy Prices

8. 8 RGGI Energy Price Impacts Change Relative to Reference Case

9. RGGI CO 2 Policy Scenarios With and Without US/Canada Policies

10. 10 CO 2 Allowance Prices 25 and 35% Cases w/ and w/o US/Can

11. 11 RGGI Average Annual Energy Prices 25 and 35% Cases w/ and w/o US/Can

12. 12 RGGI Energy Price Impacts - Change Relative to Ref Case 25 and 35% Cases w/ and w/o US/Can

13. Alternative Reference Cases

14. 14 Alternative Reference Case Specifications CaseDescription Low Emissions Reference Case (Low) Incremental electric demand growth in RGGI states reduced by 30% Reference (Ref) Standard RGGI Reference Case High Emissions Reference Case (High)  Gas prices flat at $6.50/MMBtu (real) over all years  New coal capacity allowed in RGGI regions (excluding urban areas)

15. 15 RGGI Build Mix Across Reference Cases Cumulative through 2015 and 2024

16. 16 CO 2 Emissions Across Alternate Reference Cases

17. 17 RGGI Imports Across Alternate Reference Cases

18. 18 RGGI Average Annual Energy Prices

19. Alternative Reference Cases 25% CO 2 Policy

20. 20 RGGI CO 2 Emissions Reference vs. 25% Policy Cases

21. 21 RGGI CO 2 Allowance Prices

22. 22 RGGI Imports

23. 23 RGGI Annual Average Energy Prices

24. Alternative Reference Cases 25% CO 2 Policy with US/CANADA

25. 25 RGGI CO 2 Allowance Prices 25% Policies without US/Canada 25% Policies with US/Canada

26. 26 RGGI Annual Average Energy Prices 25% Policies without US/Canada 25% Policies with US/Canada

27. CO 2 Offset Scenarios 25% CO 2 Policy with US/Canada

28. 28 Offset Scenario Specifications ScenarioCO 2 PolicyOffset Allowances Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) 25% Reduction in RGGI 2015 Stabilization in Rest of U.S. 2008 Stabilization in Canada $6.50/ton CO 2 Backstop in RGGI, U.S. and Canada RGGI Offset Supply Curve (Curve) Offset supply curve implemented for RGGI No offsets in U.S. or Canada All offset scenarios run off of standard Reference Case

29. 29 RGGI Offset Supply Curve 2015 Curve Shown

30. 30 RGGI CO 2 Emissions 25% CO 2 Case with US/Canada

31. 31 RGGI CO 2 Allowance Prices 25% CO 2 Case with US/Canada

32. 32 RGGI Imports 25% CO 2 Case with US/Canada

33. 33 RGGI Annual Average Energy Prices 25% CO 2 Case with US/Canada

34. 34 Impact on RGGI Annual Average Energy Price Relative to Reference Case

35. Appendix

36. 36 RGGI Imports 25 and 35% Cases w/ and w/o US/Can