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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use Main Color Palette R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 Success stories of RES-E development: PV Solar Electricity 7th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Deutscher Bundestag Berlin - 5th October 2007 Dr. Winfried Hoffmann Chief Technology Officer (CTO), Solar Business Group of Applied Materials President of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) and the German Solar Industry Association (BSW Solar) and member of the Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and ISFH Applied Materials GmbH & Co. KG Siemensstr. 100 63755 Alzenau Phone: +49 6023 92 6679 Fax: +49 6023 92 6560 email: Winfried_Hoffmann@amat.com www.appliedmaterials.com
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette Main Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 2 Applied Materials Overview Revenue (Past 4 Qtrs.) – $9,868 Million Worldwide Employees – Approx. 14,000 Worldwide Locations – 18 Countries Vision: We apply nanomanufacturing technology™ to improve the way people live Power $/W Area $/m² “Solar Business Group” within “Energy and Environmental Solutions” SunFab TM
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette Main Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 3 Historical Market Development by Regions ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) & Navigant Consulting
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette Main Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 4 Development of the German PV market 1991: Electricity Feed-In Act Right of (1) of grid access (2) feed-in of solar electricity (3) refund payment at fixed prices (approx. 8.5 €ct per kWh) 2000: Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) Solar electricity feed-in tariff of 51 €ct per kWh 2004: Amendment to EEG Feed-in tariff of 45.7 - 62.4 €ct per kWh 1991 - 1995: 1,000 Roofs Program 1999 - 2003: 100,000 Roofs Progr. Low-interest loans for 300 MWp ref: Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft, Germany)
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette Main Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 5 Renewable Energies are requested “These energy sources should secure our energy needs in the future” Solar energy Wind Hydro Geothermal Bio energy The vast majority of the population in Germany bets on Renewable Energies for their future energy needs. ref: forsa, Germany 2005
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette Main Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 6 Industry is following the market More than €15 billion were invested in PV systems in Germany since 2000 About €1 billion will be invested in manufacturing plants in 2007 –About 50 companies produce silicon, wafers, cells, modules and inverters –Modern and automated production lines –Improved efficiency, improved products About €100 million will be invested in Research & Development in 2007 –Strong technological development and increased R&D activities –R&D is done by industry and institutes Image: Aleo Image: Q-Cells ref: Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft, Germany)
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette Main Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 7 European Market Support Programs 2006 (est.) 1 12 63 1 12 750 Feed in Laws: Switzerland (1991); Denmark (1993); Sweden (1997); Norway, Slovenia (1999); Latvia (2001); Austria, Czech Republic, Lithuania (2002); Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Slovak Republic (2003); Turkey, Ireland (2005) other countries 12040 – 50Greece 51,2002036 – 49Italy 115031 – 45Portugal Cap [MW] Duration [a] Tariff [€ct/kWh] 5-20 30 - 40 BIPV + 15- 25 France 204002522 – 41Spain 750-20 38 – 49 BIPV + 5ct Germany 2005 Feed-in law Country yearly market [MW] ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA)
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette Main Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 8 Customer Needs on-gridoff-gridconsumerhigh efficiency €/kWh€/hr light W/m ² g/W Source: Fraunhofer ISE €/m² / aesthetics€/WflexibilityW/mm²
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette Main Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 9 World PV Application Segmentation 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 199819992000200120022003200420052006 Market Size in MW Off-Grid & Consumeron-Grid 40 %/yr overall 63%/yr 18%/yr ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) & Navigant Consulting
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette Main Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 10 Competitiveness between Electricity Generating Cost for PV and Utility Prices ref: RWE Energie AG and SCHOTT Solar GmbH, Germany market support programs necessary: Photovoltaics Retail prices private and small business Large power consuming industries
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette Main Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 11 Tokyo Electric Power Cooperation (Jp) Tariff 2005 Range of Electricity Prices in California ref: Japan = KEPCO office data ; California = Alison Hyde of BSW Seasonal Electricity Prices
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette Main Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 12 Different World PV Market Projections until 2010 MW (Status: 2006/2007 ) F F F F
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette Main Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 13 History Experience Curve for PV Solar Modules Forecast ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) and W. Hoffmann personal estimates 0,1 1,0 10,0 1101001.00010.000 GW accumulated $/W module price experience factor 15% 18% 1.8 GW/yr 2005 340 GW/yr 2030 F 6 GW/yr 2010 F 70 GW/yr 2020 F
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette Main Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 14 100 1,000 10,000 0.1110100 Cumulative Units Sold (Millions) Market Price/unit (1996 $) Analog Handset Price 10 -5 10 -4 10 -3 10 -2 10 -1 1 10 100 10 5 10 7 10 9 10 11 10 13 10 15 10 17 10 19 ‘00‘95‘90‘85‘80‘75‘70‘65 ~28% reduction for doubling of total volume DRAM Cents/bit Cumulative Bits VLSI/DRAM Cost/Learning Curve Examples FPD Cost (PECVD)
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette Main Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 15 Future Growth of the Global PV Solar Electricity Market in GWp and bn€ turnover ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates F F F F F F F
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette Main Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 16 Electricity generating cost [€ct/kWh] Eurelectric / VGB Power Tech Today 2005 Tomorrow 2030 Day after tomorrow 2050 Fossile (coal, gas) 4 - 4.56-76.5 - 9 Nuclear (PWR, HTR, FBR) 4 – 63.5 – 73.5 - 6 PV solar electricity (south/north) 20/405/103/6 = own estimates ref: EURELECTRIC and W. Hoffmann personal estimates
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette Main Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 17 Solar is Projected to be Big
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette Main Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 18 Summary: The Future of PV Solar Electricity (I) Success story for PV solar electricity industry due to market support programs (40 % annual growth in the last decade) specific Industry investment for PV solar electricity high-tech production needs Stable market conditions Not short also not long term, but until grid parity is reached (+ 5 … 15 years) Allow differentiated feed-in tariff programs in EK 27 – do not force non- differentiating quota systems / trading of green certificates in short term No stop and go budget (happening when coming from finance minister, instead feed in tariff budgets allocated to electricity users) In compliance with population (more than 80% of people like to support financially in particular PV systems, e.g. modest increase to electricity bill in feed in tariffs) Easy grid access without bureaucratic hurdles (no approval procedures for decentralized PV systems)
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette Main Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 19 Summary: The Future of PV Solar Electricity (II) If support programs are done now globally, we will have Short term (2015 …) –Reach grid parity in liberalized utility markets –Market volume above 30 bn € Medium term (2030 …) –Reach generation cost equal to clean coal electricity production –Market volume towards 200 bn € –Be the most suited energy delivery together with micro-credit financing to the billions of people in the developing world Long term (2050 …) –Together with solar thermal electricity power stations be the lowest cost electricity producing technology (also less than nuclear) –Contribute aggressively to the global electricity needs (more than30 %)
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential Restricted/Modifier Applied Materials Confidential/Modifier External Use R 255 G 255 B 204 R 202 G 222 B 233 Light Background Palette R 235 G 169 B 0 R 124 G 165 B 0 R 208 G 0 B 30 Bingo Color Palette Main Color Palette R 0 G 204 B 255 R 0 G 153 B 204 R 0 G 51 B 102 R 255 G 153 B 0 R 204 G 51 B 0 R 162 G 0 B 108 R 124 G 168 B 0 20 END
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