1. Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 November 2009 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

2. Outline Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status Monsoons Current Status Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rainfall & Temperature Patterns NCEP/GFS Model Forecast Forecast Verification

3. Australia: Rainfall overspread much of interior Queensland during the previous 7 days, but dryness and very hot weather dominated southern and southeastern farmlands. The GFS forecasts a decrease in precipitation during the upcoming 7 days. Southern Africa: Scattered showers fell across most corn growing regions, including recently dry eastern South Africa and Mozambique. The GFS forecasts showers to continue across South Africa’s maize triangle. South America: Favorably dry conditions overspread southern Brazil, contrasting with heavy rainfall in east-central farmlands. Seasonable rainfall fell across key soybean areas in the center west. In contrast, dry weather and excessive heat overspread Argentina, with maximum temperatures topping 40°C across a widespread portion of the interior. The GFS forecasts rainfall to increase across southern Brazil and decrease in the east. Unfavorable dryness is expected to continue across Argentina. Highlights

4. ENSO Current Status General Summary: El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10. During the last 4-weeks (4 – 31 October 2009), equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

5. MJO Current Status The amplitude of the MJO remained strong during the previous 7 days, with a marked eastern propagation of the enhanced phase. This indicates the presence of an MJO signal in the tropics.  The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes  The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO  Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.  Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength  Line colors distinguish different months MJO Index -- Recent EvolutionEnsemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml The GEFS predictions of the MJO index indicate a continued strong MJO signal propagating eastward for at least the upcoming week.

6. Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status South AmericaSouthern AfricaAustralia During the last 90 days, near-average precipitation was observed across interior southern Africa, though below-average precipitation was observed over southern Mozambique and eastern South Africa. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/ Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days During the last 90 days below-average precipitation was observed across northern South America southward through Argentina, contrasting with above-average rainfall in eastern Brazil and much above-average rains in southern Brazil. During the last 90 days, below- average rainfall dominated eastern Australia’s croplands. Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days

7. Southern Hemisphere Circulation 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days During 26 October – 1 November, enhanced anomalous 200-hPa anticyclonic circulations (upper-level ridging) were observed over southeastern Australia and Argentina. The upper-level anticyclonic circulation features over southeastern Australia and Argentina corresponded to strong low-level above-normal temperature anomalies. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. A A Strong ridging (associated with heat and dryness at the surface)

8. Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days During 26 October – 1 November, strong sinking motion (positive omega) was observed over southern Australia and northern Argentina associated with dry, hot conditions at the surface. In a change from previous weeks, rising motion (negative omega) in the eastern flank of the upper- level ridge (showed in the previous slide) over eastern Australia and increased rainfall were observed across Queensland and northern New South Wales. Strong rising motion and heavy rainfall were observed across eastern Brazil. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

9. Australia Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 7 days, moderate to locally heavy rainfall overspread interior Queensland, areas that have experienced prolonged dryness (left panel, green oval). Although the rainfall fell to the west of the major winter grain areas, they did fall across some summer cotton and sorghum croplands. The areas of heavier precipitation also increased moisture in the upper Darling River basin. Western Australia, South Australia, and Victoria remained dry during the period.

11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 15 days, increased shower activity was observed across Queensland and New South Wales, ending a period of marked dryness. Drier conditions were observed elsewhere across the wheat belt, particularly in South Australia. DRY WET

12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 30 days, rainfall was below-average in eastern Queensland and portions of southeastern Australia. Slightly above-average rainfall was observed in parts of central Queensland and northern New South Wales after recent rains.

13. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days 30-day rainfall time series depict the drier conditions that have been observed across the Australian wheat belt.

14. Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean During October 28 – November 3, enhanced upper-level ridging promoted much above normal temperatures across southeastern Australia. Maximum temperatures above 35°C penetrated as far south as northern Victoria, with highs topping 40°C in western New South Wales.

15. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 1-7 (3 – 9 Nov 2009), the GFS predicts light showers to continue across Queensland and northern New South Wales. Dry weather will continue elsewhere across the Australian wheat belt. Forecasts from 3 Nov 2009 – Days 1-7

16. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 3 Nov 2009 – Days 8-14 For Days 8-14 (10 – 16 Nov 2009), the GFS predicts increased rainfall across portions of Western Australia (left panel). Near-average rainfall is predicted for most of Australia (right panel).

17. Forecast Verification: Australia Total Anomaly Forecast from 21 Oct 2009 Valid 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2009 Forecast from 28 Oct 2009 Valid 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2009 Observed 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2009 Anomaly Total

18. Southern Africa Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

19. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 7 days, scattered showers fell across much of southern Africa’s corn growing areas, including portions of Mozambique and eastern South Africa that have been trending drier than average.

20. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 15 days, showers across major corn growing areas were near to above-average across interior farmlands, but slight below-average further east.

21. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 30 days near to above-average rainfall in Botswana and south-central South Africa contrasted with below-average conditions across northeastern South Africa and Mozambique.

22. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days 30-day rainfall time series depict the below-average rainfall across eastern corn growing regions (top two panels), with rainfall closer to average further south and west (bottom panels).

23. Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean Near- to below-average temperatures were observed across southern Africa’s croplands.

24. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 3 Nov 2009 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 (3 – 9 Nov 2009), rainfall is forecast to continue across eastern South Africa’s maize triangle. Lighter precipitation is expected elsewhere.

25. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 3 Nov 2009 – Days 8-14 For Days 8-14 (10 – 16 Nov), diminishing showers forecast across South Africa contrast with heavy rainfall predicted in east-central Zimbabwe.

26. Forecast Verification: Southern Africa Total Anomaly Forecast from 21 Oct 2009 Valid 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2009 Forecast from 28 Oct 2009 Valid 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2009 Observed 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2009 Anomaly Total

27. Brazil & Argentina Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

28. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Argentina Brazil Anomaly Rainfall was near-average across Brazil’s primary center-west croplands (Mato Grosso and Goias), though heavy rains soaked northern Minas Gerais and southern Bahia. Favorable dryness overspread southern Brazil following weeks of heavy rainfall. Across Argentina, unfavorably dry conditions continued across northern croplands, with showers limited to far eastern Buenos Aires and Uruguay.

29. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Argentina Brazil Anomaly Rainfall was near average across interior Brazil, but much above average across eastern regions (especially northern Minas Gerais and southern Bahia). Favorable drier than average rainfall was observed across most of southern Brazil. In Argentina, most croplands remained drier than average during the previous 15 days.

30. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Argentina Brazil Anomaly Above-average rainfall was observed across eastern Brazil and portions of the southeast, including Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana. Drier than average conditions were observed in northern Rio Grande do Sul. Unfavorable below-average precipitation was observed across most of Argentina.

31. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days 30 day time series depict the wetter than average conditions in eastern Brazil (top right), the near average rainfall in the center west (top left), recent dryness following heavy rains in southern Brazil (bottom right), and the ongoing dryness in Argentina (bottom left).

32. Temperature (°C) - Brazil Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean Temperatures ranged near to above average across Brazil, the only exception being northern Minas Gerais and Bahia, where heavy rain and clouds kept temperatures below average.

33. Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean Temperature (°C) - Argentina Based on GTS Stations (no QC) A pronounced upper-level ridge (showed in slide 7) over Argentina contributed to an outbreak of excessive heat across northern farmlands. Temperatures topped 40°C from Formosa through southern Cordoba, and even topped 45°C in western pasturelands. Weekly average temperatures were above 30°C across northern Argentina due to the heat wave.

34. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 3 Nov 2009 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 (3 – 10 Nov 2009), heavy rainfall is forecasted to return to southeastern and southern Brazil. Dry conditions are forecasted to overspread eastern Brazil, which has seen heavy rain in recent days. Near-average rainfall is expected across the center west soybean croplands. Across Argentina, light showers are forecasted in extreme northeastern farmlands, but unfavorable dryness is expected elsewhere.

35. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 3 Nov 2009 – Days 8-14 For Days 8-14 (10 – 16 Nov 2009), heavy rain is forecasted to continue across southern and southeastern Brazil. Dryness is forecasted to spread from eastern Brazil into central farmlands. Dryness is forecasted to continue across Argentina’s key farmlands, except for areas in the far north.

36. Forecast Verification: South America Total Anomaly Forecast from 21 Oct 2009 Valid 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2009 Forecast from 28 Oct 2009 Valid 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2009 Observed 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2009 Anomaly Total

37. USDA Crop Information Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars