1. GEMS Global Reactive Gases Guy P. Brasseur Martin Schultz Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg, Germany

2. GRG Objectives To set up an operational data assimilation system for chemically reactive gases on a global scale, providing products to end-users on a day-by-day basis. Coordinator: G. Brasseur, MPIMET

3. Atmosphere Models Ocean Models Land Surface Models Terrestrial Biosphere Models Solid Earth Models Carbon Cycle and Biogeochemistry Water Cycle The Earth System Unifying the Models The Predictive Earth System MegaflopsGigaflopsTeraflopsPetaflops Natural Hazard Prediction Hydrolog y Process Models Climate / Weather Models 20002010 Towards Operational Earth System Monitoring, Assimilation and Prediction Systems

4. Specific Goals (1) Acquire satellite data for a few chemical species (ozone, NOx, CO, CH2O), assess the quality of these data, and implement these data into the GEMS 4-D var assimilation system. Use 3 existing chemistry transport models at ECMWF to provide the chemical source terms required by the assimilation system, and calculate the concentration of chemical compounds that are not assimilated by the ECMWF system.

5. Specific Goals (2) Develop prototype user services including –predicted global distributions of reactive chemical compounds in the troposphere and stratosphere –surface UV forecasts, –volcano plume forecasting system Evaluate reanalysis simulations and assess the quality of the predictions using routine chemical observations and event-based case studies. Provide information for regional air quality predictions

6. O3, Fishman: MAM 1979 - 2000 NASA/Fishman: SON 1979 - 2000 Space Observations of chemical species

7. Air Pollution becomes a global problem

8. Chemical Weather seen from Space

10. Mexico City from Satellites – 1 GOME NO 2 December average Data courtesy J. Burrows, U. Bremen Processing by S. Massie, NCAR

11. NOx and Lightning GOME and SCIAMACHY will provide information on NOx produced by lightning

12. August September Monthly Carbon Monoxide Emission Estimation for 2002 Hybrid remote sensing fire products: GOES WF_ABBA AVHRR and GOES (INPE) MODIS (NASA) Freitas et al 2005 Duncan et al.2003 EDGAR 3.2 Freitas et al 2005 Duncan et al.2003 EDGAR 3.2

13. www.cptec.inpe.br/meio_ambiente Carbon Monoxide (ppb 72 m) Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004 Carbon Monoxide Source Emission (kg/m 2 s) - 3/September/2004

14. GOES+METEOSAT IR 2100Z/4/September/2004 Carbon Monoxide (ppb 10700 m) Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004 Upper troposphere transport associated to the a mid-latitude cold front approach

15. Net Ozone Production Rate as a function of NOx levels summertime surface conditions HO 2 +O 3 HO 2 +NO OH+NO 2

16. Data MOCAGE TM MOZART-3 Products, User services P, L GEMS Global System Data Tracer distributions synthesis evaluation assimilation initial condition GRG in GEMS

17. Workpackages WP-GRG-1: Assimilation of gas-phase chemical species in the stratosphere and troposphere –Activity Leader: H. Eskes, KNMI WP_GRG_2: Implementation of global chemistry- transport models in the ECMWF system –Activity Leader: G. Brasseur and M. Schultz, MPIMET WP_GRG_3: Development of prototype user services –Activity Leader: A. Arola, FMI WP_GRG_4: Evaluation of reanalysis and simulations –Activity Leaders: K. Law (SA_UPMC) and J.P. Cammas, CNRS-LA)

18. WP-GRG-1: Assimilation of gas-phase chemical species in the stratosphere and troposphere 1.1. Extension of ECMWF assimilation system to include new tracers (O3, NOx, CO, SO2, HCHO) 1.2. Evaluation of chemical formation and loss rates for chemical species. 1.3. Addition of these chemical sources to the ECMWF assimilation system 1.4. Assessment and delivery of satellite data for ozone and other tracers

19. WP-GRG-1 1.5-1.7.. Collection of satellite data for ozone, NO2, SO2, HCHO, and CO, reformatting the use in the IFS, and monitoring the data against IFS. 1.8-1.10. Assimilation of ozone, NO2, SO2, HCHO, and CO satellite data. 1.11 Implementing a nudging capability for assimilated tracer fields into the CTMs 1.11-1.14. Critical assessment of assimilated fields 1.15. Review of inverse modeling techniques for non- CO2 gases

20. WP_GRG_2: Implementation of global chemistry- transport models in the ECMWF system 2.1-2.3. Implementation of 3 chemical transport models (MOZART3, TM5 and MOCAGE) on the ECMWF computer 2.4-2.6 Test simulations with these models 2.7. Definition of variables and quality criteria for model intercomparisions 2.8. Model intercomparison 2.9-2.10. Provision of the emission data for the GEMS CTMs

21. WP-GRG-2 2.11 Preparation of data sets for first reanalysis simulations 2.12. Implementation of short-term variability in emission fluxes 2.13. Implementation of a global wildfire emission model on the ECMWF computer

22. The 3 Chemical Transport Models MOCAGE: Multi-scale CTM developed by Meteo-France (Peuch et al., 1999) using the RACM scheme to describe the chemistry of the troposphere. Advection is treated by a semi-Lagrangian algorithm. TM5: CTM introduced in the Netherlands by KNMI with a tropospheric module adopted from the CBM4 scheme. Uses the Prather scheme for advection. Includes two-way nested zooming capability over Europe. (Krol et al., 2004) MOZART-3: CTM developed by NCAR and MPI-M. Uses its own chemical scheme and treats advection using the Lin and Rood algorithm (Brasseur et al. 1998; Horowitz et al., 2003; Kinnison et al., 2005).

23. WP_GRG_3: Development of prototype user services 3.1-3.3. Global distributions of background levels of pollutants. 3.4. Consolidation of the results of the 3 CTMs. 3.5. Selection of the appropriate methods for the effect of clouds and surface albedo on UV radiation. 3.6. Implementation and comparisions of suitable parameterizations for clouds and surface albedo 3.7. First version of look-up tables for surface UV irradiance

24. WP-GRG-3 3.8. First versions of interpolation methods for the look-up tables. 3.9. Development of validation software and tools 3.10. Initial implementation of UV calculations within the ECMWF system. 3.11. Preliminary validation of UV products against the ground-based UV data

25. WP_GRG_4: Evaluation of reanalysis and simulations 4.1. Inventory of community-accessible data sets 4.2. Definition of parameters for model evaluation 4.3. Preliminary evaluation of reanalysis runs 4.4. Definition and preparation of case studies.

26. Major Groups involved WP_GRG_1: Assimilation of gas-phase chemical species –KNMI, ECMWF, MPI-M, BISA, IUP_UB, SA_UPMC, NKUA, Meteo-Fr WP_GRG_2: Implementation of global chemistry transport models in the ECMWF system –MPI-M, KNMI, Meteo-Fr, ECMWF, SA-UPMC

27. Major Groups involved WP_GRG_3: Development of prototype user services –FMI, DMI, ECMWF, MPIM, Meteo-Fr WP_GRG_4: Evaluation of reanalysis simulations –CNRS-LA, SA-UPMC, DWD, NKUA, MPIM, BISA, Meteo-Fr

29. Total Column Ozone (DU) September 25, 2002 1.25 lon x 1.0 lat1.9 lon x 1.9 lat EPTOMSMZ3/ECMWF

30. Ozone Lindenberg, May 2003

31. Comparison of HALOE and MZ3/WACCM H 2 O (ppmv) Monsoon 100 hPa

32. Comparison of HALOE and MOZART3/WACCM H 2 O – Park et al. 2003

33. Retrieval Artifact TP ht based on ECMWF lapse rate TP ht based on PV criteria Lightning NOx Penetration into the LS?? Meridional Cross Section of NOx in the South Asian Monsoon Region (60-120E), Sept

34. Ozone Change 2000-2100 A2

35. The End