1. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 1 Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS Johannes Kaiser Tony Hollingsworth, Martin Schultz

2. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 2 Overview of Presentation Motivation Wildfire emissions are a major boundary condition for atmospheric composition modelling, thus GEMS. GEMS is just starting. Scientific development, collaborations, and additional funds will be needed to do a good job. Contents GEMS Overview GEMS Requirements on Wildfire Emissions Existing Components GEMS Wildfire Strategy Proposal Summary

3. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 3 GEMS Overview

4. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 4 GEMS:Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data CoordinatorA.Hollingsworth(ECMWF) ProjectsLeadership Greenhouse Gases P.Rayner (F) Reactive Gases G.Brasseur (D) AerosolO.Boucher (UK) Regional Air QualityV-H.Peuch (F) ValidationH.Eskes (NL) Global Production System A.Simmons (ECMWF), GMES Integrated Project, 12.5MEuro, 30 Institutes, 14 Countries www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS

5. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 5 Objectives of GEMS Global operational system for monitoring & forecasting composition ready by 2009 Combine remotely sensed and in-situ data GREENHOUSE GASES (initially including CO 2, and progressively adding CH 4, N 2 O, plus SF 6 and Radon to check advection accuracy), REACTIVE GASES (initially including O 3, NO 2, SO 2, CO, HCHO, and gradually widening the suite of species), AEROSOLS (initially a 15-parameter representation, later ~ 30) Support operational Regional Air-Quality Forecasts Global Retrospective Analyses 2000-2007 Variational Inversion Techniques to estimate sources & sinks of CO 2 and other trace constituents

6. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 6 Reactive Gases Greenhouse Gases Aerosol Regional Air Quality GEMS organisation in 6 sub-projects Validation greenhouse gases reactive gases regional air quality aerosols

7. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 7 Schedule of GEMS Work at Central Site Year 1 May 2005+12 mo Build and validate 3 separate assimilation systems for Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol. Acquire data; build web-site Year 2 May 2006+12 mo Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol Make reanalyses available for validation by all partners Provide feedback to data providers Year 2-2.5 May 2007 + 6 mo Merge the 3 assimilation systems into a unified system; Upgrade the models and algorithms based on experience Year 2.5-3.5 Nov 2007+ 12 mo Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol Build operational system, & interfaces to partners Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008+ 6 mo Final pre-operational trials Documentation & Scientific papers

8. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 8 Requirements on Wildfires

9. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 9 Wildfire Emission Description Wildfires constitute a major boundary condition for atmospheric composition modelling. GEMS requirements Amount emitted: aerosol, trace gases FRE / AFL / emission factors / burnt area / hot spot Location, Time burnt area / hot spot Injection height meteo / FRE Cross-cutting Global aerosol and trace gases, regional air quality: consistency, work reuse! Forestry, vegetation monitoring: collaboration with geoland and others!

10. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 10 Schedule of GEMS Wildfire Requirements Year 2 May 2006+12 mo Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol global emissions for 2003 of correct order of magnitude Year 2.5-3.5 Nov 2007+ 12 mo Produce unified reanalyses for trace gases and aerosol high-resolution (temporal & spatial) global fire products for 2000–2007 Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008+ 6 mo Final pre-operational trials high-resolution (t&s) global fire products in NRT

11. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 11 Existing Components Models, observations

12. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 12 Existing Emission Models Missoula Fire Sciences Lab, USDA Forest Service?

13. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 13 Use of Related Observations in GEMS FRE amount, time, loc. YesYes no, to be drived

14. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 14 Strategy Proposal

15. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 15 GEMS Baseline Approach (AER) GWEM for amount [Hoelzemann et al. 2004] BUOYANT for injection height [Nikmo et al. 1999]

16. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 16 Extended Treatment of Wildfire in GEMS Year 2 May 2006+12 mo Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol global emissions for 2003 of correct order of magnitude climatology: RETRO, AEROCOMM-B Year 2.5-3.5 Nov 2007+ 12 mo Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol high-resolution (t&s) global fire products for 2000–2007 burnt area from MODIS, GLOBCARBON… Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008+ 6 mo Final pre-operational trials high-resolution (t&s) global fire products in NRT hot spots and/or FRE from MODIS, … Year 5 - 2009 - operational phase high-resolution global (t&s) fire products in NRT hot spots and/or FRE from MODIS, … global WF_ABBA from GEO satellites Partial funding

17. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 17 geoland, … t GEMS Single Evolving Fire Assimilation System (FAS) Single, consistent processing for all GEMS subprojects Evolution from climatology to existing products to fire assimilation hidden behind constant interface satellite fire product satellite radiance land cover climatology fire climatology land cover product fire product Fire Assimilation System global fire emissions greenhouse gases reactive gases aerosols regional air quality

18. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 18 Summary GEMS combines satellite and in-situ observations in a operational global data assimilation / forecast system. GEMS will provide re-analyses and forecasts of the atmospheric composition, i.e. aerosols and trace gases. The emission by wildfires of is one of several important cross- cutting issues in GEMS. The emission by wildfires is ultimately needed globally in near-real time as well as with a time lag. No suitable wildfire emission product is available. A phased development strategy for a global fire assimilation system and wildfire emission modelling has been proposed. Feedback through inverse modelling is ultimately expected. The strategy is currently being discussed and we are grateful for comments, suggestions, collaborations, and contributions.

19. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 19 More Info www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/HALO j.kaiser@ecmwf.int