1. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no TEPS/LAMEPS at met.no Marit Helene Jensen, Inger-Lise Frogner, Hilde Haakenstad and Ole Vignes

2. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no TEPS/LAMEPS An ensemble prediction system using IFS and HIRLAM Running daily since mid Feb. 2005 (quasi operational) Focus: Precipitation (large precipitation events of special interest) TEPS/LAMEPS is a supplement to EPS from ECMWF: LAMEPS has better resolution TEPS/LAMEPS is designed for our area of interest Is valid for day 1 – 3

3. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no TEPS/LAMEPS – set-up TEPS/LAMEPS: TEPS (global model) (~80 km/40 lev.): as EPS, except: TEPS is targeted to our area of interest 20 + 1 members (EPS 50 + 1) LAMEPS (regional model, ~20 km / 40 lev.): HIRLAM 20 + 1 members Initial perturbations and lateral boundary conditions from TEPS (6 hourly updates on boundaries)

4. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Verification area Target area SVs Integration area HIRLAM

5. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Generation of perturbations Running TEPS to +90h 20 + 1 members 12 UTC TEPS is automatically transferred to met.no TEPS is made ready to run in the Norwegian model environment TEPS is transferred to Trondheim Generation of HIRLAM perturbations LAMEPS running 18 UTC, to +60h Results from LAMEPS transferred back to met.no Generation of products for users/customers 00 UTC 30 minutes 2 hours 19 UTC 50 minutes ECMWF

6. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Verification 20+1 TEPS/LAMPES/EPS members Time period 14/2-12/4-2005 Parameter: 24 hours precipitation (from 06 to 06 UTC) Forecast lengths LAMEPS: +36 and +60 hours TEPS : +42 and +66 hours EPS : +42 and +66 hours

7. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no ROC +36/+42h NTOT= 81409, NOCC= 778, P_CLI=0.010NTOT= 81409, NOCC= 5040, P_CLI=0.062

8. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no +60/+66h NTOT= 81288, NOCC= 5037, P_CLI=0.062NTOT= 81288, NOCC= 808, P_CLI=0.010

9. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Cost/loss +36/+42h

10. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no +60/+66h

11. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no BSS/Area ROC

12. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Summary verification Small precipitation amounts – TEPS/EPS best Medium precipitation amounts (~10 mm/day) - TEPS/EPS best Large precipitation amounts (15 mm/day and more) – LAMEPS best

13. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Case study: 100 year precipitation in the middle part of Norway in August 2003 14. – 15. August 2003 Atnadalen: 116,5 mm/24h, 156,2 mm/48h Sunndalsøra: 102,5 mm/24h, 171,9 mm/48h

14. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Observed 14. Aug. 06UTC - 15. Aug. 06UTC

15. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Operational HIRLAM 20 km +42h

16. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no ECMWF ensemble +42h

17. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LAMEPS ensemble +42h

18. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Use of LAMEPS Forecasting EU-project Eurorisk Storm-surge LAMEPS Input to hydrological models

19. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Examples of use of LAMEPS Area: Selbusjøen 615moh Time T2m dT/dz R6 18+ 0 7.4 -1.3 0.0 18+ 6 1.0 -0.7 0.0 18+12 1.7 -0.8 1.5 … 18+54 3.3 -0.6 1.5 18+60 5.1 -0.7 0.3 Ensemble of hydrological models – one time series for each ensemble member as input to the hydrological models (customers)

20. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Examples of use cont.

21. Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Future developments Include perturbing of the model physics Increase the time resolution of the boundary fields Expand system to more parameters: temperature, wind, …. Develop probability products Compute SVs within HIRLAM Move to higher resolution