1. 1 Recent development of the data assimilation, model and deterministic forecast at ECMWF Adrian Simmons Data Division, Research Department and Alfred Hofstadler Met. Apps. Section, Operations Department

2. 2 Operational data assimilation before 29 June 2004 12h 4D-Var with long data cut-off 0003060912151821000306091215182100 Long cut-off 4D-Var (12 h) AN 00 UTC FC 12 UTC FC

3. 3 From 29 June 2004 The Early Delivery System 0003060912151821000306091215182100 Delayed cut-off 4D-Var (12 h) AN FC AN Early Delivery Analysis 4D-Var (6 h) 00 UTC FC 12 UTC FC Early Delivery System gains from: - using 00 and 12UTC data earlier in window of 12h 4D-Var - using slightly more data in 12h 4D-Var Early Delivery System loses from - using less data in 6h 4D-Var

4. 4 Radiosondes arriving between 0401 and 0800 UTC 25 March 2004 Number of soundings = 35

5. 5 Four subsequent operational changes 28 September 2004 – IFS cycle 28r3 18 October 2004 – IFS cycle 28r4 5 April 2005 – IFS cycle 29r1 28 June 2005 – IFS cycle 29r2 Day Anomaly correlation of 500hPa forecasts for Europe Mean over 186 days since 1 Dec 2004 Cycle 29r2 Cycle 29r1

6. 6 EUMETSAT ATOVS Retransmission Service (EARS)

7. 7 Relative humidity along Greenwich meridian 300hPa wind Meteosat-7 incrementsMeteosat-8 increments Assimilation of MSG water-vapour radiances

8. 8 Total ozone 9 Sept 2004 Operations, no SCIAMACHY Pre-operational test, including SCIAMACHY retrievals from KNMI TOMS

9. 9 Wavelet J b : horizontal and vertical correlations for vorticity North America Equatorial Pacific Average vertical correlations Horizontal correlations at level 39 (~500hPa)

10. 10 New moist boundary layer scheme METEOSAT visible 10 Dec 2004 Impact on low-cloud cover 8-16 Dec 2004 K M K Stratocumulusdry PBL z cb zizi zizi K M Moist combined mass-flux/K-diffusion PBL

11. 11 Bias-correction of surface-pressure observations Altamera, Brazil December 2004 April 2005

12. 12 Assimilation of rain-affected microwave radiances and improvement of humidity analysis Rain Asm Hurricane Charley Track forecasts from 12 UTC 11 Aug 2004 e-suite ops Global 1.74 1.90 N. Hemisphere 1.63 1.71 Tropics 2.12 2.43 S. Hemisphere 1.53 1.62 N. Atlantic 1.63 1.69 N. Pacific 1.57 1.69 (kg/m 2 ) Comparison of cycle 29r2 e-suite and operations with independent TCWV retrievals from Jason microwave radiometer

13. 13 Also included: Refinements to use of ATOVS and AIRS Improved use of TEMP and SYNOP humidity observations Monitoring of TCWV from ground-based GPS receivers Use of METAR observations; discontinue use of PAOBS Lower surface-pressure obs errors for automatic stations Use of Meteosat-8 (MSG) winds MODIS winds from second satellite, and with reduced errors Simulated GEO imagery as forecast product Jb statistics from new ensemble data assimilation Use of SMHI Baltic sea-ice analysis Small revisions to surface, convection and cloud schemes Radiation frequency reduced from three hourly to hourly Better vertical diffusion in first minimization of 4D-Var

14. 14 T799 orography T799 model resolution for deterministic forecast T95/255/799 for 4D-Var 10m wind T799

15. 15 91-level vertical resolution Fit of L91 and L60 background and analysis to NH radiosonde T K L60 L91

16. 16 Higher horizontal and vertical resolution Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height for northern hemisphere T511 L60 T799 L91 Day Mean over 148 cases from 1 August 2004

17. 17 Higher horizontal and vertical resolution Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height for Europe T511 L60 T799 L91 Day Mean over 148 cases from 1 August 2004

18. 18 Higher horizontal and vertical resolution Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height for Europe T799 L60 T799 L91 Day Mean over 148 cases from 1 August 2004

19. 19 Resolution Upgrades – Atmosphere (A.Hofstadler) DeterministicEPSMOFC CurrentUpgradeCurrentUpgradeCurrentUpgrade SpectralT511T799T255T399T159 GaussianN256N400N128N200N80 Dissemination (LL) 0.50.251.00.51.5 ML - Vertical Resolution 609140624062 No increase in pressure levels planned

20. 20 Resolution Upgrades - Waves DeterministicEPS European shelf MOFC CurrentUpgradeCurrentUpgradeCurrentUpgradeCurrentUpgrade Lat/Lon 0.50.361.0 0.25 1.5 Dissemination/LL 0.50.251.0 0.25 1.5 Frequencies 30 2530 25 Directions 24 1224 12

21. 21 Timetable for resolution changes Mid June: First operational testing End June: First technical test datasets for selected operational suites available in MARS July-September: Operational e-suite Meteorological test datasets for all operational suites available in MARS Parallel test dissemination for selected dates End September: Implementation December: increase in run-length for medium- range from 10 to 15 days, including VAREPS Spring 2006: linking MOFC to VAREPS

22. 22 Technical impact on users Field sizes Model output (SH and GG) -> x 2.5 Lat/Lon -> x 4 Extra model levels -> x 1.5 Dissemination Problem with GG/AUTOMATIC Choosing of nearest new model level Nearest GRID point coordinates for Weather Parameter requests will change. Member States have to choose new GRID point coordinates or rely on interpolation. Line capacity Production schedule should stay the same MS jobs Check new disk space, memory, CPU, line bandwidth requirements

23. 23 Technical impact on users (cont.) MS projects Use test data sets to run e-suites and decide on new configuration Review resource requirements (disk space, memory, CPU, line bandwidth) EMOSLIB 281 New Gaussian definitions New automatic truncation Will become default version MARS and Metview_new have been relinked MS graphics applications (Metview and MAGICS) need to be relinked