1. Benefits of the full ECMWF product set at a commercial weather provider [dr. Wim van den Berg, meteorological research department] ECMWF Users Meeting June 15, 2006

2. 15-6-2006ECMWF Users Meeting 20062 Overview Summary of current use of ECMWF Model data Fields from the Deterministic and other Models Applications of the Deterministic and other Models Applications of data from MARS archive Recommendations

3. 15-6-2006ECMWF Users Meeting 20063 Summary of current use of ECMWF Model data Changes in use of ECMWF fields since maximum license fee n worldwide original gaussian fields n 00 and 12 utc runs (MOS12 and MOS00) n early delivery system (MOS12 in evening) n 1.2.2006 high resolution and 3h fields (+3... +72) Current flow and use of ECMWF data: n 70-80 GB/day n processed and interpolated - near real time except for EPS - to a resolution of (0,25-)0,4-0,5-1,0(-1,5) degrees depending on customer and application needs ECMWF model data is seen as our basic (most reliable) forecasting tool, but for comparison and multimodel approach we also use UKMO-GFS- HiRLAM data. ECMWF model data is seen as our basic (most reliable) forecasting tool, but for comparison and multimodel approach we also use UKMO-GFS- HiRLAM data. n ECMWF model data and its derived products are used throughout the Meteo Consult Group (Netherlands, UK, Germany, Belgium and other).

4. Quality of ECMWF temperature forecasts (USA) based on dec.2005 verification of (Multimodel) MOS

5. 15-6-2006ECMWF Users Meeting 20065 Fields from the Deterministic and other Models (1) Fields from the Deterministic Model (reduced gaussian 0,225 degrees) n 00 and 12 utc runs, incl 06 and 18 utc analysis fields n +3h (+3h) +72h (+6h) +240h; full globe n surface (17 elements) n pressure levels 1000-200 hPa (8 elements) n model levels 91-82 (boundary layer, 4 elements) n 30-35 GB/day Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System (reduced gaussian 0,45 degrees) n 00 and 12 utc runs, 50+1 members n +6 (+6h) +240h; full globe n surface (11 elements) n pressure levels 850-925-500 hPa (1-2 elements) n 35 GB/day

6. 15-6-2006ECMWF Users Meeting 20066 Fields from the Deterministic and other Models (2) Fields from the Ocean Wave Model (0,25 degrees) n +3h (+3h) +72h (+6h) +240h; full globe n surface (10 elements) n 2 GB/day Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System Ocean Waves (1,51,0 degrees) n 00 and 12 utc runs, 50+1 members n +12 (+12h) +240h; full globe n surface (6 elements) n 1 GB/day

7. 15-6-2006ECMWF Users Meeting 20067 Fields from the Deterministic and other Models (3) Daily (and some weekly) products from the Monthly Forecasting System (reduced gaussian 1,125 degrees n 50+1 members n D5-D32; full globe n surface (11 elements) n pressure levels 500 hPa (1 element) n 4 GB/week Daily products from the Seasonal Forecasting System (reduced gaussian 1,875 degrees) n 40 members n D1-D180; full globe n surface (8 elements) n pressure levels 925 and 500 hPa (1-2 elements) n 4 GB/month Data from MARS archive (special projects)

8. 15-6-2006ECMWF Users Meeting 20068 Applications of the Deterministic and other Models (1) Fields from the Deterministic Model (reduced gaussian 0,225 degrees) n interpolated to 0,4 (Europe-Atlantic-USA maps) n interpolated to 1,0 (worldwide maps) Derived products with emphasis on (severe) weather warnings: (in)stability parameters and weather codes Derived products with emphasis on (severe) weather warnings: (in)stability parameters and weather codes Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System (reduced gaussian 0,45 degrees) n interpolated to 0,4 (Europe-Atlantic-USA maps) n interpolated to 1,0 (worldwide maps) Derived fields like 10% risk and averages Derived fields like 10% risk and averagesApplications: MCMOS2004, which will be replaced by Multimodel MOS 2006 MCMOS2004, which will be replaced by Multimodel MOS 2006 Special MOS forecasts (wind energy, road/rail conditions) Special MOS forecasts (wind energy, road/rail conditions) Automatic fronts Automatic fronts

9. 31 May, 2006: risk of snow at 1000m in the Alps ( background: model orography) model derived WW (fp +18) observed weather

10. Risk of thunderstorms: model derived WW and SFUK observations Left: 17-05-2006 (fp +21) Right: 21-05-2006 (fp +18)

11. Forecast maps for pigeon flyers Right: wind at 70m (level 89) Left: significant clouds, model derived weather

12. ECMWF EPS average maps for 7 June, 2006 D8 forecastD2 forecast

13. Multimodel MOS TX forecast for California (background: direct model output MX2T6 and model orography)

14. Local ECMWF MOS wind (energy) forecast, compared with direct model output (fp +15)

15. Experiments with automatic fronts

16. 15-6-2006ECMWF Users Meeting 200616 Applications of the Deterministic and other Models (2) Fields from the Ocean Wave Model (0,25 degrees) Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System Ocean Waves (1,51,0 degrees) Derived fields like 10% risk and averages Derived fields like 10% risk and averagesApplication: Nautical MeteoBase (multimodel approach with coupled wind-wave algorithms) Nautical MeteoBase (multimodel approach with coupled wind-wave algorithms)

17. ECMWF EPS risk areas (compared with direct model output of surface pressure and 10FG6) Left: 10% highest gusts (kts) 8-06-2006 (fp +78) vrf.: 58 kts and 7m! Right: prob. sign. sea/swell > 2.5m 8-06-2006 (fp +78)

18. Nautical meteoBase and EPS (sign. sea/swell) analysis: 4-5m!

19. 15-6-2006ECMWF Users Meeting 200619 Applications of the Deterministic and other Models (3) Daily (and some weekly) products from the Monthly Forecasting System (reduced gaussian 1,125 degrees Daily products from the Seasonal Forecasting System (reduced gaussian 1,875 degrees) Application: Development of weekly/monthly tendency forecasts for energy and agriculture. Development of weekly/monthly tendency forecasts for energy and agriculture.

20. ECMWF EPS & Monthly Forecast: daily T2m (March 2006 – cold, and May 2006 – warm/cool)

21. 15-6-2006ECMWF Users Meeting 200621 Applications of data from MARS archive research projects and hindcast studies (downscaled ERA40 wind to detect discontinuities and trends in local wind speed observations) research projects and hindcast studies (downscaled ERA40 wind to detect discontinuities and trends in local wind speed observations) consultancies (MM5 studies) consultancies (MM5 studies) extension and updating of MOS system extension and updating of MOS system other statistical post processing (downscaling of model fields to customer specified grids) other statistical post processing (downscaling of model fields to customer specified grids)

22. Downscaling to arable land (JRC: CGMS System) case TX 1-07-2003, Oper.Model 0,4° left and Seasonal Model 1,875° right CGMS 25x25km terrain interpolation statistical interpolation

23. Simulated effect of projected harbour extension in Dubai (MM5 27931km runs with ECMWF boundaries)

24. 15-6-2006ECMWF Users Meeting 200624 Recommendations n Emphasis on early delivery of 00utc products (most customers need their updates in the morning before 09 lt (07 utc in summer) n MARS products and ECMWF Catalogue similar n Hindcast or reforecast data available for at least 1 year soon after a major change in model (resolution, levels) to enable quick MOS adjustments n Web access to non-Grib data and experimental products like EFI charts and Tropical Cyclone Tracks