1. Use of Ensemble Forecast Robert Mureau KNMI Marco Nolet Reading 16 june 2005

2. Content Simple EPS verification First guess 5 day forecast New EPS plume product

3. Simple verification T2m (T00/T12) Ensemble mean Oper Forecaster

4. Winters 97-04

5. Summers 97-2003

6. T00 1997-2004 T+132

7. T12 1997-2004 T+144

8. T00 T+228

9. T12 T+240

10. Day 5 Tmin dec 1999- 2004

11. Day 5 Tmax Dec 1999-2004 Marco Nolet

12. Tmax 1972-2002

13. 1981-2002

15. Conclusions verification part No real trends in rms Bias control and ens mean are similar Gap opens at day 3 ? Ensemble mean best deterministic value for money (but very safe)

16. First guess 5 day forecast

17. First Guess Table First guess 5 day forecast ( including error margins ) Probabilities of events Special link with probabilities of severe weather events Table internet table

18. New EPS plot layout