1. State of the Economy Measured Optimism

2. Noteworthy events since last Symposium Obamacare A Republican Senate ISIS Alibaba public offering Ebola Ukraine Malaysia Airlines’ misfortune Germany wins the World Cup, Brazil humiliated A college football playoff

3. Energy Prices Plunge Note: Prices shown are through end of day January 11, 2015. Comment: Oil prices have declined by 60% over the past 6 months and by 50% in just the past three months.

4. Comment: It has taken 5 years but we have achieved neutral.

5. Comment: Real GDP growth has been solid four of the last five quarters. The poor first quarter of 2014 is usually attributed to bad weather. Comment: The weakness of the hosing market in 2014 is reflected in the contribution to GDP growth by Residential Fixed Investment.

6. Comment: Prices have remained quite stable for the last three years. Comment: Disposable Personal Income has shown little growth over the past two years.

8. Comments: With the exception of Q1 in 2014, retail sales have been steady for the past three years.

9. Comment: Unemployment rate has shown a steady decline for 2014.

10. Comment: Nov 2014 and Nov 2013 numbers are very similar. 2014 was disappointing.

11. Comment: The index remains positive though not strongly positive.

12. Comment: Long-term unemployment showed significant improvement in 2014. Median Duration (weeks, not seasonally adjusted) declined from 17.5 to 13.0.

13. Comment: Wells Fargo forecasts modest GDP, retail sales and disposable income growth. Prices and interest rates projected to remain low.