1. Probability and Statistics Required!

2. 2 Review Outline  Connection to simulation.  Concepts to review.  Assess your understanding.  Addressing knowledge gaps.

3. Probability, Statistics, and Simulation Simulate random components - Generation of  Interarrivals  Service times  Breakdowns  Repair times  … that are assumed to behave according to fitted distributions. Simulation Model Data e.g., Interarrivals Service times Breakdowns Repair times … Distribution Fitting Compute statistics Graphical representation Choose distributions Mass functions Density functions Distribution fcns. Goodness-of-fit tests (statistical inference) Simulation replications Warm-up Samples of system Performance x 1 x 2 … x n Output Analysis Statistical tests and measures 3 Statistics & ProbabilityProbability Statistics “Statistics” – processing/analyzing data “Probability” – Manipulating/utilizing functions characterizing uncertainty

4. 4 Concepts to Review  Random variables.  Statistics and graphs computed from collected data.  Probabilistic distribution functions.  Statistical inference.

5. 5 Self Assessment  Utilize “IE 415/515 Prob. and Stat. Review Questions”. Available on the course website.  Answers will be reviewed in class.

6. 6 Addressing Knowledge Gaps  Review IE 355 notes.  Utilize an engineering statistics text, or the IE 355 text.  Understand the concepts Do additional problems Utilize text books, web-based material for other explanations.