1. Use and evaluation of medium-range forecast at the Use and evaluation of medium-range forecast at the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Ferenc Wantuch Hungarian Meteorological Service Kitaibel P. u. 1. H-1024 Budapest E-mail:wantuch.f@met.hu

2. Talk outline Introduction Verification Two interesting case studies New products based on ECMWF.

3. Data flow and structure NWP data source: File format: GRIB BUFR Visualisation Netcdf file format Code generalisation process

4. NWPoutput Code generalisation by the help of different method (PP, MOS) visibility forecast, max, min temperatures cloudiness,... Forecast text generator program End users Text and data Control Verification Forecasteroutput

5. Verification A Complex Score was defined. 100%0% Min/Max temperatureRMSE0 °C8 °C Precip. ExistencePC100%0% Precip. AmountMAE0 kateg.1.6 kateg. Average Wind SpeedRMSE0 m/s6 m/s Wind GustRMSE0 m/s10 m/s Cloud CoverRMSE0 okta6 okta Complex Score-100 %0 % Weight Temperature 25+25% Precipitation 22,5% Wind 10% Cloud Cover 17,5% 10 4 6 17,5 25 12,5 0 5 10 15 20 25 TminTmaxP.ExistP.AmountyÁv.WindlWind gustCloud Covert %

6. 1.night.1.day2.day3.day4.day5.day6.day MAE (°C) 1.87 1.31 1.20 ------ - 1.48 1.37 - 1.71 1.53 - 1.91 1.72 - 2.26 2.00 - 2.50 2.24 MAE (°C) ------ 1.77 1.55 1.30 - 1.72 1.63 - 1.89 1.84 - 2.28 2.16 - 2.54 2.43 - 3.12 2.79 Prec.Exist.: PC (%) 79.95 82.73 83.11 76.76 80.36 81.74 - 80.92 78.60 - 73.54 76.28 - 74.23 75.46 - 73.21 74.00 - 71.03 70.77 Prec. amount: MAE 0.19 0.22 0.23 0.25 0.24 - 0.35 0.33 ------ ------ ------ ------ Verification 2004 (Hungary) ALADIN ECMWF Forecaster Tmax: Tmin:

7. 1.night.1.day2.day3.day4.day5.day6.day Average wind speed: MAE (m/s) 0.73 0.62 0.94 0.67 0.59 0.86 - 0.65 0.84 - 0.69 0.87 - 0.82 0.94 - 0.88 0.97 - 0.98 1.02 Gust: MAE (m/s) 1.58 1.43 1.61 1.74 1.58 1.65 - 1.78 1.71 - 2.03 1.90 - 2.17 2.03 - 2.42 2.20 - 2.59 2.32 cloud cover : MAE (okta) 1.08 0.86 0.65 1.08 0.87 0.68 - 0.98 0.79 - 1.10 0.86 - 1.31 1.01 - 1.46 1.12 - 1.65 1.19 Complex Score (%) 74.96 79.81 81.73 75.03 77.68 80.42 - 75.91 77.55 - 73.04 75.22 - 68.69 71.35 - 65.13 68.19 - 60.77 64.82 Verification results 2004 (Hungary) ALADIN ECMWF Forecaster Felhőzet: Verification results and trends

8. Complex Score for the first day 2000. júl – 2004. dec. (Country mean) ALADIN ECMWF Synoptic 2000. second period: changes in ECMWF algorithm + model upgrade: 60 => 40 km) 2003. Feb.: Anticyclon with snow surface, ALADIN is unsuccesfull 2004. December cold air pad

9. Minimum Temperature sesonal ME and RMSE (2001 – 2004 Hungary mean) ME: seasonal RMSE: slowly decrease EC + Forecaster:

10. Complex Score for the first day in 2004-ben (country mean) ALADIN ECMWF Forecaster ~30%-correction in (cold air pad) inversion situation

11. Case study I. : Inversion and cold air pad. (2004. December ) Stratus (cloud base 200-400 m, surface temperature –1, -3 C Tops of mountains are clear MSG comp321 sat. picture. 12.12. 12 2004 UTC and observations ECMWF model forecast. 12 UTC-re dec.12 2004 The last ECMWF prediction. 100 20 SKC is predicted

12. -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 0 1 2 3 4 okt. 1.okt. 8. okt. 15.okt. 22.okt. 29. nov. 5. nov. 12.nov. 19.nov. 26. dec. 3. dec. 10.dec. 17.dec. 24.dec. 31. (okta) ALEC F Cloud cover verification. ECMWF - ALADIN – Forecaster (1st day) 2004. October – November – December V

13. Case study II. : Flash flood in Matra Mountains. (18.04.2005. ) The ECMWF model involved the possibility of extreme precipitation

14. Succesful MM5 modell forecast based on ECMWF initial condition. Case study II.

15. New clusterisation method and early time torch construction depend on ECMWF at HMS. Varying number of clusters for the Carpathian Basin Torch construction before the dissemination time.

16. New torch diagrams and probability forecasts for energetic sector. 925 hPa,850 hPa,700 hPa, wind direction,relativ hum.,temperture,… torches Probablilty forecasts

17. Post processing application. Program demonstration Internet and business application End

20. Thank you for attention !