1. Commercial services
A few examples on the use of ECMWF-data at marked.met.no
ECMWF Product Users Meeting
Reading June 14-16, 2006
Head of Meteorology and Research Erik Hagemark
Project meteorologist media Niklas B.Sondell

2. Presentation overview
Commercial services – who are we?
Innovative use of ECWMF-products:
Maritime operations planning tool ”MOP”, based on 10-day forecasts from EC-op and EC EPS
3 week forecasts, based mainly on the Monthly Forecasting System.

3. Commercial services – who are we?
Leading service provider in Norway.
Strong position within the maritime, media, transportation and energy markets.
Specialists in product development/value add
Meteorologists, programmers and salesstaff.
’Separated’ from the official duties of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute.
Profitable, no subsidies.

4. Commercial services – who are we?
We pay the max price to ECMWF (EUR )
Currently 34 employees, and growing

5. A Marine Operations Planning tool ECMWF Product Users Meeting
Commercial services
A Marine Operations Planning tool
”MOP”
ECMWF Product Users Meeting
Reading June 14-16, 2006

6. Marine operations planning tool – ”MOP”
An interactive web-based tool for combining operations criteria and weather data.
The program can be run in 2 modes
Hindcast mode using statistics
Forecast mode using ECMWF-data (op and EPS)
Suitable for riggmoves, maintenance, supply logistics and survey and so on…

7. Marine operations planning tool – ”MOP”
MARSIM GUI
User defines operation
Results: wait time/completion time
Hindcast data
EPS data
Program
Courtesy Dr.A.K Magnusson, marked.met.no

8. ”MOP” - description
Highly advanced tool with an interactive interface in which the user can enter and alter:
weather dependent criteria
type and duration of operations
vessels involved
Output is given as
Average waiting time
Total completion time
Plot of cummulative probability

9. Marine operations planning tool – ”MOP”
Main window (edit mode)

10. ”MOP” – output examples
Average waiting time (hindcast mode)

11. ”MOP” – output examples
Average waiting time (forecast mode)

12. Commercial services
A 3-week forecast using the ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
ECMWF Product Users Meeting
Reading June 14-16, 2006

13. 3-week forecasts
First issued late Nov 2005, operational from March 2006
Derived from the ECMWF Monthly Forecast System
The last week (week 4) is not included due to low skill
Updated weekly
Several languages available

14. 3-week forecasts - description
Main focus on weather regimes, and when regimes are changing.
Hovmoeller Diagram and Weather Regime Clusterisation.
In many cases we adapt the anomalies to better fit the weather regime.
The anomalies derived directly from the model are not always accurate because of the coarse resolution in the model.
The forecast is also used by the forecaster as an input in our 10 day forecast issued daily.

15. 3-week forecasts - verification
March 2006 to date, showing precipitation and temperature.
Proven skill in forecasting colder/warmer and drier/wetter than normal.
Low skill in forecasting the exact anomaly.

16. 3-week forecasts and energy trading
Powerful tool when applied in connection with energy trading
Proven skill when compared to forward contracts at Nordpool
Max return on the 8th trading day
Used: forwards for the middle-kWh-price, third quarter 2006

17. Thank you!! Visit us at: www.marked.met.no
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