1. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Systematic Errors Thomas Jung European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

2. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Scope of the Lecture Question: Do we still have significant systematic errors in the ECMWF forecasting system? If so, what are the main problems? How do systematic errors grow? How did systematic errors evolve over the years? How well do we simulate specific phenomena (e.g., blocking, extratropical cyclones)? Does increasing resolution help? Which techniques can be used to understand systematic error?

3. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Introduction Two principal sources of forecast error: Uncertainties in the initial conditions (observational error) Model error Two kinds of forecast error Random error (model+initial error) Systematic error (model error*)

4. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Concept of Systematic Error Relatively straightforward to compute But there are pitfalls: finite length (significance tests may help) Systematic error may be misleading for short time series (loss of predictability) observations might be biased Systematic errors can be difficult to interpret.

5. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Loss of Predictability and Systematic Error Observed Anomaly Systematic Error when predictability is lost Fingerprint of loss of predictability: Systematic error resembles the opposite of the observed anomaly Observed Forecast

6. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Example: Z500 DJF 2005/06 Observed AnomalyMean Error @ D+10 Spatial correlation=-0.78

7. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Do we know the true state?

8. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Data Medium-range forecasts Primarily hindcasts from ERA-40 and ERA-Interim (robust statistics). Seasonal integrations: 13 month long integrations started on 1 st November of each of the years 1962-2005 (or a subset of this period). Diagnosis of standard seasons DJF, MAM, JJA, SON (errors had at least 1 month to grow, asymptotic errors). Most experiments at T L 159 with 91 levels in the vertical. Observed lower boundary conditions (uncoupled integrations). Observational data: ERA-40 Other observational data sets.

9. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Systematic Error Growth How do systematic errors grow throughout the forecast?

10. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Systematic Z500 Error Growth from D+1 to D+10 D+1 D+3 D+5D+10

11. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Systematic Z500 Errors: Medium-Range and Beyond D+10 ERA-Interim Asymptotic: 31R2

12. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Evolution of Systematic Error How did systematic errors evolve throughout the years?

13. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Evolution of D+3 Systematic Z500 Errors 1981-19851993-1997 2006-2010

14. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Evolution of Systematic Z500 Errors: Model Climate 35R133R132R332R2 32R131R130R129R2

15. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Systematic Z500 Errors: Impact of Recent Changes CNT-Reanalysis (33R1)Old Convection-CNTOld TOFD-CNT Old Vertical Diff-CNTOld Radiation-CNTOld Soil Hydrology-CNT

16. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Phenomena

17. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Blocking Methodology L H L

18. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Blocking Frequency Errors (23r4) DJF 1990-2001 ERA-40 D+1 D+4 D+7 D+10

19. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Blocking Frequency Errors (31R2) DJF 1990-2001 ERA-40 D+1 D+4 D+7 D+10

20. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Blocking Frequencies: DJF 1990-2005 ERA40 33R1 32R3 29R2-32R2

21. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Blocking Frequencies: DJFM

22. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Extratropical Synoptic Systems Two approaches: Compute standard deviation of highpass or bandpass filtered time series (Eulerian approach). Track individual systems (Lagrangian approach).

23. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Observed Tracks of Long-lived Cyclones >2 days

24. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Sensitivity to Horizontal Resolution: 29R1

25. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Sensitivity to Horizontal Resolution: 31R1

26. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Number of Extratropical Cyclones (DJFM) Lifetime > 1day

27. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Synoptic Activity Error: Evolution 35R1 32R3 31R1 32R2 30R1 33R1

28. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Resolution and Computational Effort 33 times for T L 511 520 times for T L 1279 2136 times for T L 2047 Increased cost compared to T L 159:

29. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. The Madden-and Julian Oscillation

30. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Schematic of the MJO From Madden and Julian (1994)

31. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Near Global Impact of the MJO (Precipitation) Conv.: Indian OceanConv.: Maritime Continent Conv.: Central PacificConv.: WH/Africa

32. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. The Madden and Julian Oscillation ReanalysisT159T511 T1279T2047

33. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Conclusions (1) Main systematic errors: Concept of systematic error is very straightforward. But there are pitfalls: Short time series (sampling issues + loss predictability). True state of the atmosphere not always well known. Systematic error are (usually) a clear sign of model error. Understanding systematic error is challenging.

34. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Conclusions (2) Main systematic errors: Do we still have systematic errors in the ECWMF model? Yes, we do. However, most systematic errors have been substantially reduced in recent years. Some key-challenges remain!

35. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Conclusions (3) Main systematic errors: Tropical circulation + hydrological cycle Madden-Julian Oscillation Indian Summer Monsoon Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Euro-Atlantic blocking Severe weather (e.g. wind storms) Others (surface related fields) Key-challenges:

36. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Further Reading Bechtold, P., M Koehler, T. Jung, M. Leutbecher, M. Rodwell and F. Vitart, 2008: Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time scales. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 1337-1351. Jung, T. and A.M. Tompkins, 2003: Systematic Errors in the ECMWF Forecasting System. ECMWF Technicial Memorandum 422. http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/do/references/list/14 Jung, T., A.M. Tompkins, and R.J. Rodwell, 2004: Systematic errors in the ECMWF forecasting system. ECMWF Newsletter, 100, 14-24. Jung, A.M. Tompkins, and R.J. Rodwell, 2005: Some Aspects of Systematic Errors in the ECMWF Model. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 6, 133-139. Jung, T, et al., 2010: The ECMWF model climate: Recent progress through improved physical parametrizations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 136, 1145-1160. Jung, T., 2005: Systematic errors of the atmospheric circulation in the ECMWF model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 1045-1073. Jung, T., S.K. Gulev, I. Rudeva and V. Soloviov, 2006: Sensitivity of extratropical cyclone characteristics to horizontal resolution in the ECWMF model. Quart J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 1839-1857. Hoskins, B.J. and K.I. Hodges, 2002: New perspectives on the Northern winter storm tracks. J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 1041-1061. Palmer, T.N., G. Shutts, R. Hagedorn, F. Doblas-Reyes, T. Jung, and M. Leutbecher, 2005: Representing model uncertainty in weather and climate prediction. Ann. Rev. Earth. Planet Sci., 33, 163-193. Rodwell, MJ and T Jung, 2008: Understanding the local and global impacts of model physics changes: An aerosol example. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 1479-1497.

37. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Recent Model Changes 29R228 Jun 2005Modifications to convection 30R11 Feb 2006Increased resolution (L60 to L91) 31R112 Sep 2006 Revised cloud scheme (ice supersaturation + numerics); implicit computation of convective transports; introduction of orographic form drag scheme; revised GWD scheme 32R1 not operational New short-wave radiation scheme; introduction of McICA cloud- radiation interaction; MODIS aerosol; revised GWD scheme; retuned ice particle size 32R25 Jun 2007Minor changes to forecast model 32R36 Nov 2007 New formulation of convective entrainment and relaxation time scale; reduced vertical diffusion in the free atmosphere; modification to GWD scheme (top of the model); new soil hydrology scheme 33R13 Jun 2008Slightly increased vertical diffusion; increased orographic form drag; retuned entrainment in convection scheme; bugfix scaling of freezing term in convection scheme; changes to the surface model

38. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Sensitivity to Model Formulation

39. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Systematic Errors: AMIP Models

40. Training Course Presentation, 19 th April 2010 – Thomas Jung: Systematic Model Errors. Demeter Models (DJF Precipitation) CERFACS LODYC MPIMetOffice Meteo- France ECMWF