1. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 1 Satellite Observation Usage for Global Biomass Burning Emission Monitoring in GMES Johannes W. Kaiser contributions from: A. Hollingsworth, S. Serrar, R. Engelen, M.G. Schultz, C. Textor, M. Sofiev, J.-M. Gregoire Introduction Fire Observations Emission Monitoring Conclusions Related Developments in GEMS Summary

2. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 2 Global Wildfire Distribution

3. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 3 Total annual burned area estimated at 3.5 million km 2 > 600,000 burn scars detected [Tansey et al., Climatic Change 2004] Total annual burned area estimated at 3.5 10 6 km2 > 600,000 burn scars Global fire activity (GBA2000)

4. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 4 Annual fire emissions, averaged over the 1997 – 2004 period Van der Werf et al. (ACPD 2006)

5. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 5

6. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 6 Diurnal Variability need temporal resolution of a few hours (Justice et al. 2002) TRMM MODIS Terra fit to diurnal cycle MODIS Aqua

7. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 7 Fire Emission Significance

8. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 8 Biomass Burning (BB) Emissions … AIR QUALITY: … can dominate regional air quality in severe air pollution events … can elevate background of atmospheric pollutant after long range transport [Stohl et al. 2001, Forster et al. 2001, Andreae et al. 2001] POLLUTION CONTROL: … significantly contributes to global budgets of several gases Kyoto, CLRTAP, … WEATHER: (absorbing aerosols) … influences the radiative energy budget [Konzelmann et al., JGR 1996] … provides cloud condensation nuclei [Andreae et al., Science 2004] Heat release accelerates deep convection. [Damoah et al., ACP 2006] REMOTE SENSING: … affects essential a priori information for remote sensing (AOD, profiles) CHALLENGE: … are highly variable on all time scales from hours to decades NOAA, 2005-12-11

9. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 9 Interannual Variability

10. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 10 CLAIRE 1998 – vôo sobre o Suriname e Guiana 10 km CO – CO 2 300 ppb Short-term Variability: CO, CO2 (courtesy M. Andreae, MPI Mainz)

11. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 11 CLAIRE 1998 – vôo sobre o Suriname e Guiana 10 km CO – CO 2 300 ppb Short-term Variability: CO, O3 (Andreae et al. 2001) (produced by INPE/CPTEC, courtesy of M. Andreae, MPI Mainz) [Freitas et al. 2005]

12. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 12 SIGNIFICANCE for Land Monitoring Wildfires represent a significant sink for the terrestrial carbon pools. Wildfire behaviour characterises land cover types with repeated fire events. typical fire repeat period typical fire intensity typical fire seasonality … Wildfires can change the land cover type reversibly tropical deforestation …

13. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 13 Project Context

14. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 14 HALO – GMES Specific Support Action (SSA) Harmonised coordination of Atmosphere, Land and Ocean integrated projects of the GMES backbone (1/2/2004 – 1/1/2007) geoland (1/1/2004 - 1/2/2007) Global and regional observatories & core services M ERSEA (1/4/2004 – 1/4/2008) Global to coastal scale models, EO and in-situ data assimilation and modelling GEMS (1/3/2005 - 1/3/2009) Global greenhouse and reactive gases, global aerosol and regional air pollution, EO-data assimilation and modelling HALO aims at formulating agreed recommendations to GAC and IPs Scientific thematic analysis of links: Direct product exchange, unaccomplished data demands, common data Coordinated solutions to infra-structure in operational mode Candidate solutions by Alcatel and Astrium

15. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 15 Global and regional Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ data (GEMS) GMES Integrated Project: 4 years 2005-2009 30 Institutes, 14 Countries http://www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Management – CoordinatorA.Hollingsworth (ECMWF) – Greenhouse Gases P.Rayner (F) – Reactive Gases G.Brasseur (D) – AerosolO.Boucher (UK) – Regional Air QualityV-H.Peuch (F) – ValidationH.Eskes (NL) – Global Production System A.Simmons, H.Boettger (ECMWF)

16. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 16 Objectives of GEMS Global operational system combining all available remotely sensed and in-situ data to monitor the 3D distributions of key atmospheric trace constituents Regional Air Quality: initial & boundary conditions for operational regional air-quality models Retrospective Analysis for the ENVISAT-EOS era Estimation of sources, sinks and transports for greenhouse gases and aerosol

17. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 17 Reactive Gases Greenhouse Gases Aerosol Regional Air Quality GEMS organisation in 6 sub-projects Validation greenhouse gases reactive gases regional air quality aerosols

18. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 18 GEMS Fire Observation Requirements Product Types: amount emitted: aerosol, trace gases (~30% accuracy) location time injection height profile Availability: global ~25 km spatial resolution several hours time resolution near-real time and retrospectively covering many years (>8a)

19. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 19 Fire Observations

20. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 20 Two types of fire products accessible from Earth obs. systems Area burnt - Burnt area - Burnt pixel - Burnt scar BURNT AREA product Fire front - Active fire - Hot spot - Fire pixel - Fire count ACTIVE FIRE product OBSERVATION SYSTEM thermal emission, MIR only during fire spectrally flat BRDF flat dark only after fire

21. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 21 SPECTRUM [Zhukov et al., DLR 2005]

22. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 22 BURNT AREA products + quantification + location – no info on time – not available in NRT ACTIVE FIRE Products + near-real time (NRT) + time (& location) – quantification LEO satellites: + global coverage and higher spatial resolution, – but sparse temporal coverage GEO satellites: + high temporal resolution, – low spatial coverage and spatial resolution Available fire products from satellites

23. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 23 Boschetti et al., 2004 acitve fire: - World Fire Atlas (WFA) burnt area: - GLOBSCAR - GBA2000 Inter-comparison of 3 global fire products Large differences between products

24. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 24 GLOBCARBON Global Burnt Area Estimate (courtesy of Olivier Arino)

25. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 25 Observation System: Current Fire Products

26. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 26 Emission Monitoring

27. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 27 traditional: Fire Radiative Power (FRP): M(…) = FRP * time * scaling factor * emission factor(…) M (…) = Area. Biomass. Burning efficiency. Emission factor Globe: ~ 400 millions hectares burnt in 2000 Med. Basin: ~ 500000 hectares Dry tropical grass savanna: ~ 2 tons/hectare Moist tropical savanna: ~ 10 tons/hectare Boreal forest: ~ 20 tons/hectare Moist tropical forest: ~ 40 tons/hectare ~ 25% forest -- ~ 80% savanna Woodland & forests ~ 1600 g CO 2 / kg biomass Grasslands ~ 1700 g CO 2 / kg biomass Fuel: T. ha -1 ???? pixels burnt per vegetation type Area burnt per vegetation type: ha OBSERVATION SYSTEM: Calculating Emission Amounts

28. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 28 Several Inventories Exist

29. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 29 Current NRT Fire Emission Monitoring Systems RAMS model at INPE/CPTEC Assimilation of WF_ABBA product from GEOS satellites Delivers CO and aerosol emissions over the Americas NRL/NAAPS aerosol model in the FLAMBE project Additionally assimilates the MODIS active fire product Delivers global aerosol emissions

30. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 30 Applications of the GOES Wildfire ABBA in Modeling Programs Real-time Assimilation at the University of Sao Paulo and CPTEC/INPE into the RAMS model Point Sources for 13 August 2002 RAMS CO Product RAMS PM2.5 Product GOES-8 WF_ABBA Fire Product Real-time Assimilation into the Naval Research Laboratory Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) GOES WF_ABBA Fire Product 22 August 2003 at 17:45 UTC NAAPS Smoke Optical Depth 22 August 2003 at 18:00 UTC GOES-8 ABBA Fire and MACADA Cloud Products Used in Study to Model and Predict Future Fire Activity at UNH Collaboration with Univ. of New Hampshire Inst. for Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space Other Modeling Efforts and Collaborations Climate Modeling at NASA/GSFC: Assimilation into the GOCART model Real-time Air Quality Modeling at NASA/Langley: Real-time assimilation into the RAQMS model as part of IDEA (Infusing satellite Data into Environmental Applications) Fire Emissions and Regional Air Quality Modeling at NCAR: Assimilation into the U.S. EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality model in support of the 2002 SMOCC campaign in Brazil Intermediate Deforestation Scenario Predicted increase in future regional fire activity: 22% Complete Deforestation Scenario Predicted increase in future regional fire activity: 123% Number of Fire Pixels

31. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 31 Fire Radiative Power (FRP) produced from MODIS and SEVIRI directly proportional to emission [Ichoku 2005] [Wooster 2005]

32. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 32 Some Conclusions

33. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 33 Some Conclusions on Existing Fire Emission Models No global operational system exists. (Some) severe events of pollution with aerosol and CO can be monitored and forecast with observations of fires only. It is possible. Fire EO input is essential. High temporal frequency of fire observations is important.

34. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 34 Some Conclusions on Fire Products No current product satisfies all requirements. LEO spatial coverage/resolution complements GEO temporal resolution. Hot spots (tropical forest) complement burnt area products. [C. Michel et al., JGR 2005] need regionalised approach Many existing products are inconsistent. [Boschetti et al. 2004] Several new operational products are anticipated. Fire Radiative Power from SEVIRI + global (M. Wooster) WF_ABBA from global GEO system (E. Prins) Burnt Area from MODIS (D. Roy) Burnt Area from VEGETATION 2000-2006 (GDBAv1) Burnt Area from GEOLAND (BAG)

35. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 35 GFAS Proposal A Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) is needed to combine several fire observations land cover products meteorological conditions a numerical model of fire activity. Such a system can provide the required fire input for the GMES atmosphere and land monitoring systems. Expression of Interest formulated supported by 30+ scientist from 30+ institutions communicated to the EU in March

36. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 36 Related Developments in GEMS

37. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 37 Preliminary Global Approach for Reanalysis use fire emission inventory GFEDv2 as dummy for future GFAS. It combines [van der Werf et al., ACP 2006] MODIS hot spot observations CASA vegetation model driven by observed fPAR, PAR. 1. obtain custom version of GFEDv2 with 8-day time resolution 2. conversions to GRIB format 3. include fire emissions in IFS 4. compare forecasts with / without fire emissions 5. compare both to observed time series 6. compare the difference to fuel load changes in CASA

38. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 38 CO2 Fire Emission on 20 Aug 2003 12UTC [g/m2/month] (GFEDv3-8d)

39. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 39 CO2 Model Field with Fires @ 500hPa [ppm]

40. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 40 Excess CO2 due to Fires I [ppm]

41. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 41 Excess CO2 due to Fires II [ppm]

42. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 42 Regional PM2.5 Emission by Fire Modelled in NRT from MODIS FRP (M. Sofiev, FMI)

43. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 43 Summary

44. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 44 SUMMARY Wildfire, aka Biomass Burning (BB), emissions are needed globally in near-real time as well as in consistent multi-year time series. No suitable BB emission product is available. Principal shortcomings are accuracy, delivery time, temporal resolution, geographical coverage. Various fire observations complement each other. The development of a Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) is needed to serve the GMES requirements. Product generation needs to exploit existing observations more completely. FRP is very promising due to accuracy of emitted amount calculation and temporal resolution. Preliminary systems for fire emission modelling in GEMS are under development.

45. IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 45 MORE INFORMATION www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/HALO www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS www.gmes-geoland.info j.kaiser@ecmwf.int This work has been funded by the European Commission through the FP6 projects HALO, GEMS, and GEOLAND. THANK YOU! ACKNOWLEDGMENTS