1. Copyright © SRC 2012 Forestry Component of the PRAC Terrestrial Theme Mark Johnston and Elaine Qualtiere Saskatchewan Research Council 15 February 2012

2. Copyright © SRC 2012  Alberta SRD: – Literature review of climate change impacts on southern boreal forests (complete) – Study of fire season length, wind speed and atmospheric moisture (ongoing)  Manitoba Conservation Forestry Branch – Vulnerability assessment for the Sandilands area in SE MB – Summary of climate change scenarios for Sandilands area of southeastern MB  Saskatchewan Environment Forest Service – Island Forests Vulnerability Assessment – Impacts of climate change on IF wood supply Overview of Forestry Activities and Case Studies

3. Copyright © SRC 2012  Report focused on Forest Fringe  Applies generally to southern boreal forests in the prairie region  Includes impacts on ecosystem services; risk assessment; and adaptation options AB SRD: Literature Review

4. Copyright © SRC 2012 AB SRD: Climate Change and Forest Fires ScenarioModel2020s2050s2080s A1BCGCM17.6±4.920.8±5.423.5±5.0 Hadley17.6±5.221.1±5.325.1±6.1 IPSL18.1±4.622.7±5.327.7±6.5 A2CGCM17.5±4.620.6±5.325.6±6.0 Hadley17.2±5.221.0±5.026.5±6.6 IPSL18.4±4.822.7±5.328.8±6.2 B1CGCM17.2±4.719.3±5.421.2±5.1 Hadley17.4±5.619.8±5.023.1±5.6 IPSL18.2±4.822.0±5.224.5±5.9 Change in Fire Season Length Relative to the 1979-2010 Average (days)

5. Copyright © SRC 2012  Forestry Branch is conducting a vulnerability assessment to explore potential impacts of climate change on forest management in the Sandilands provincial forest (southeastern Manitoba).  The guidebook developed through the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers (CCFM) is being used as a reference for the assessment.  The assessment will identify potential adaptation options and will establish a vulnerability assessment tool that can be applied to other areas within the province.  SRC has generated climate forecasts which are being used to assess anticipated climate change impacts. MB Conservation: Climate Change

6. Copyright © SRC 2012 MB Conservation: Climate Change MUVariableSeasonYearsMinMaxMeanTif_Files 24Mean Max Temp (ºC)ANNUAL1971-20006.988.237.85 MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_ANNU AL.TIF 24Mean Max Temp (ºC)AUTUMN1971-20007.518.998.58 MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_AUTU MN.TIF 24Mean Max Temp (ºC)SPRING1971-20007.929.218.82 MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_SPRI NG.TIF 24Mean Max Temp (ºC)SUMMER1971-200024.3125.2124.62 MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_SUM MER.TIF Excel look-up tables showing climate variables for current and future time slices linked to maps

7. Copyright © SRC 2012 MU 24

8. Copyright © SRC 2012 Multiple Vulnerabilities of Saskatchewan’s Island Forests Under Climate Change

9. Copyright © SRC 2012

10.  Broad scale landscape model designed to simulate forest succession and disturbances – Succession – Disturbance – Seed dispersal – Forest management – Carbon dynamics – Climate change affects What is LANDIS-II? Wind Fire Cohort Biomass Insects Spatially Interactive Landscape Harvest

11. Copyright © SRC 2012 Results – Total Biomass (yr 50)

12. Copyright © SRC 2012 Results – Total Biomass (yr 100)

13. Copyright © SRC 2012 LANDIS – Future Fire

14. Copyright © SRC 2012 Changes in Forest types Non-ForestSoft woodHardwoodMuskeg

15. Copyright © SRC 2012  Used a forest ecosystem model (PnET) to produce estimates of annual biomass production (NPP)  Converted NPP to the equivalent harvestable wood volume  Generated these estimate for current and future climate  Used these data to generate yield curves for main forest types – used in wood supply analysis  Results will be incorporated into a 20-year forest management plan for the Island Forests Wood Supply and Climate Change in the Island Forests

16. Copyright © SRC 2012 Example yield curves for jack pine: Constant CO 2

17. Copyright © SRC 2012 Example yield curves for jack pine: Increasing CO 2